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7 PowerPoint Templates for Impactful Climate Change Presentations

• October 13, 2022
• PowerPoint templates for download , Sustainability, ESG, Climate Change presentations

Last Updated on June 28, 2024 by Barbara

If you’re planning to talk about ecology, circular economy, sustainability, or any climate change-related topics, using graphical aids can help you illustrate more data with less text and make your slides more dynamic and motivating. See how you can improve climate change presentations, whether you’re teaching, training, or inspiring your audience.

Visual illustrations can help clarify the message and ideas you want to convey. Using imagery to support rich data can help you take your environmental presentation to the next level and keep your listeners’ focus.

Check out this list of PowerPoint templates we put together. It can be a source of visual inspiration for your climate change presentations.

Transform your business presentations with our expert resources. Discover more on our business performance presentations webpage.

These seven decks will help you create high-quality presentations and illustrate various ecology and climate change-related topics:

• Actions against climate change
• Triple bottom line sustainable strategy
• Circular economy and sustainability
• Climate change impacts & business actions
• Plastic pollution & waste
• Ecology & green projects presentation
• Environmental and ecology icons

You can get any deck presented here as an editable file. Simply click on the images to see and download the source illustrations. Check the full collection of Climate & Ecology PowerPoint Templates here .

Actions Template Against Climate Change

Spreading knowledge and giving practical tips on what each of us can do to help slow down climate change and global warming is a very important part of combating this crisis.

If you want to explain the problems, go into the details. and show solution examples for a company, consumers, or employees, the climate change actions PPT deck is the one. It includes definitions, causes, and consequences of climate change, information on major sources of greenhouse emissions, practical action layouts, calendar and checklist slides, ESG principles, and many other diagrams.

You can use it to share knowledge, inspire, and motivate your community to be more conscious and effective in actions.

Check our blog to learn how visuals can help you drive climate change.

If you are an education professional or an NGO member, please contact us . We can give you a discount on our graphics or offer some of our presentations free of charge.

Triple Bottom Line Sustainable Business Strategy

The triple bottom line (TBL) is an accounting framework that incorporates three dimensions of business performance: social, environmental, and financial. Measuring business using TBL is one of the evaluation methodologies to verify how sustainable the business is, and how profitable it is.

The triple bottom line PowerPoint deck contains slides to illustrate the definition, metrics, quotes, and circular economy model. Also, you’ll find diagrams to show three areas of the TBL concept: Social Sustainability (People), Environmental Sustainability (Planet), and Economical Sustainability (Profit).

See how you can structure your TBL presentation and present various parts of it in this article . To learn more about accounting framework background, we recommend checking this Wikipedia article .

Circular Economy and Sustainability PPT Diagrams

The circular economy is a model of production & consumption. It involves sharing, reusing, repairing, and recycling materials and products for as long as possible. To present the essence of the circular economy and principles of the sustainable development model effectively, we encourage using visuals.

The circular economy PowerPoint template includes quotes slides, linear timelines, loop diagrams, comparison graphics, listings, processes, and layouts to show the difference between circular versus linear economies.

You can use these infographics in a broad spectrum of contexts to:

• Compare circular and linear economic models
• Show circular economy benefits
• Teach the green economy framework
• Design a lifecycle of a sustainable product
• Explain the 7R model principles with attractive graphics
• Create suggestive slides to emphasize the potential of a sustainable economy
• Give real-life examples of running a sustainable business

For more information about circular economy history and applications see this article .

If you’re talking about sustainability principles, types, or core pillars, see how icons can help translate abstract ideas into easy-to-read slides.

Climate Change Impacts & Business Actions Template

Explaining global warming effects or analyzing climate change risks? If you need to put together a general presentation on the climate change impacts and actions to be taken to combat it, have a look at the deck below.

Climate change impacts & business actions PPT deck contains diagrams for showing the impacts of global warming, facts, definitions, and quotes on climate from recognized institutions (UN, IPCC, NASA).

See simple design tips on improving your environmental presentation with visual examples.

Plastic Pollution & Waste PowerPoint Infographics

Plastic pollution has become one of the most pressing environmental issues. The rapidly increasing production of disposable plastic products influences the world’s ability to deal with them. The numbers are shocking: by 2050 there will be more plastic than fish in the ocean.

You can use plastic pollution & waste slides collection to illustrate the effects of plastic pollution, statistics of pollution and global waste, pollution contributors, actions we can take to tackle it and reduce plastic in our daily lives, and ways to increase employee engagement in recycling.

Graphics will help make the heavy data more user-friendly and it will be easier for you to persuade the audience you’re presenting to that steps and actions toward a more sustainable economy need to be taken now.

Creative Eco & Green Projects Presentation Template

Pitching your new green technology idea to investors or presenting an eco-project? Get inspired by the following visualizations in green theme to help you to convey your ideas in an out-of-the-box format.

Such slides with organic blob shape designs are easily associated with a natural and environmental style and will give your presentation a personal touch. You can use these layouts to illustrate any part of your presentation, such as the agenda, project team, vision & mission statements, problem & green solution, project development & implementation timelines, solutions benefits, roadmap calendar, and many more.

Ecology Icons Bundle for PowerPoint

You don’t necessarily need very complex graphics to make your presentation or another document look more professional and modern-looking. Start small: add icons to highlight your points better.

Ecology icons PPT bundle contains various symbols for illustrating natural resources, sustainable transport & architecture, green energy, waste industry (types, treatment, and prevention), and ecosystems concepts.

See creative ways to use icons in slide design to make it easier for the reader to remember the content.

Why use strong visuals for climate change presentations

Adding graphics, even simple ones, will definitely make a difference in your presentation. Therefore it will help you convey your ideas better. This especially concerns climate change presentations, because you probably want to motivate people to take action and better-presented information will help you connect with them.

Having a set of easily editable templates can make your work easier. Pre-designed graphics will help you save time and focus on presentation content.

To ensure the professional look of your slides, check our articles from our designer’s advice about graphical consistency rules  and  aligning elements  properly.

Check our YouTube movie with examples of how you can illustrate climate change or global warming concepts:

Resources: PowerPoint Templates to Use for Climate Change Presentations

The slide examples mentioned above can help you provide environmental education content, prepare marketing material, and kickstart a positive change for a sustainable future.

Explore the set of presentation graphics on climate change, global warming, and other connected topics:

To try out how those graphics work, get a sample of  free PPT diagrams and icons . You can use it to see if this kind of presentation visuals is a good fit for you.

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Climate Matters • November 25, 2020

New Presentation: Our Changing Climate

Key concepts:.

Climate Central unveils Our Changing Climate —an informative and customizable climate change presentation that meteorologists, journalists, and others can use for educational outreach and/or a personal Climate 101 tool.

The presentation follows a ”Simple, Serious, Solvable” framework, inspired by climate scientist Scott Denning. This allows the presenter to comfortably explain, and the viewers to easily understand, the causes (Simple), impacts (Serious), and solutions (Solvable) of climate change. 

Our Changing Climate is a revamped version of our 2016 climate presentation, and includes the following updates and features:

Up-to-date graphics and topics

Local data and graphics

Fully editable slides (add, remove, customize)

Presenter notes, background information, and references for each slide

Supplementary and bonus slides

Download Outline (PDF, 110KB)

Download Full Presentation (PPT, 148MB)

Updated: April 2021

Climate Central is presenting a new outreach and education resource for meteorologists, journalists, and others—a climate change presentation, Our Changing Climate . This 55-slide presentation is a guide through the basics of climate change, outlining its causes, impacts, and solutions. This climate change overview is unique because it includes an array of local graphics from our ever-expanding media library. By providing these local angles, the presenter can demonstrate that climate change is not only happening at a global-scale, but in our backyards.

This presentation was designed to support your climate change storytelling, but can also double as a great Climate 101 tool for journalists or educators who want to understand climate change better. Every slide contains main points along with background information, so people that are interested can learn at their own pace or utilize graphics for their own content. 

In addition to those features, it follows the “Simple, Serious, Solvable” framework inspired by Scott Denning, a climate scientist and professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University (and a good friend of the program). These three S’s help create the presentation storyline and outline the causes (Simple), impacts (Serious), and solutions (Solvable) of climate change. 

Simple. It is simple—burning fossil fuels is heating up the Earth. This section outlines the well-understood science that goes back to the 1800s, presenting local and global evidence that our climate is warming due to human activities.

Serious. More extreme weather, rising sea levels, and increased health and economic risks—the consequences of climate change. In this section, well, we get serious. Climate change impacts are already being felt around the world, and they will continue to intensify until we cut greenhouse gas emissions. 

Solvable. With such a daunting crisis like climate change, it is easy to get wrapped up in the negative impacts. This section explains how we can curb climate change and lists the main pathways and solutions to achieving this goal. 

With the rollout of our new climate change presentation, we at Climate Central would value any feedback on this presentation. Feel free to reach out to us about how the presentation worked for you, how your audience reacted, or any ideas or topics you would like to see included. 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS & SPECIAL THANKS

Climate Central would like to acknowledge Paul Gross at WDIV-TV in Detroit and the AMS Station Science Committee for the original version of the climate presentation, Climate Change Outreach Presentation , that was created in 2016. We would also like to give special thanks to Scott Denning, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and a member of our NSF advisory board, for allowing us to use this “Simple, Serious, Solvable” framework in this presentation resource.

SUPPORTING MULTIMEDIA

Global Warming

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Glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising, cloud forests are dying, and wildlife is scrambling to keep pace. It has become clear that humans have caused most of the past century’s warming by releasing heat-trapping gases as we power our modern lives. Called greenhouse gases, their levels are higher now than at any time. Climate change encompasses not only rising average temperatures but also extreme weather events, shifting wildlife populations and habitats, rising seas, and a range of other impacts. All of those changes are emerging as humans continue to add heat-trapping greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, changing the rhythms of climate that all living things have come to rely on. With concentrations of greenhouse gases rising, Earth’s remaining ice sheets such as Greenland and Antarctica are starting to melt too. That extra water could raise sea levels significantly, and quickly. In addition to sea levels rising, weather can become more extreme. This means more intense major storms, more rain followed by longer and drier droughts — a challenge for growing crops — changes in the ranges in which plants and animals can live, and loss of water supplies that have historically come from glaciers. What will we do — what can we do — to slow this human-caused warming? How will we cope with the changes we’ve already set into motion? While we struggle to figure it all out, the fate of the Earth as we know it — coasts, forests, farms, and snow-capped mountains — hangs in the balance.

The Global Warming template consists of four bright and modern slides. The first slide represents the globe with various factories and enterprises. Modern infographics allow you to immediately grab the audience’s attention. You can use this slide when preparing a report on the protection of the environment, the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the transition to green technologies. The slide will be useful for ecologists and public organizations for the protection of nature. The next slide shows our planet divided into two parts – life and lifeless space. Many companies are using the planet’s resources for uncontrolled enrichment. This leads to irreparable consequences. You can use this slide to draw public attention to this issue. The next slide will be useful for companies that develop environmentally friendly equipment. You can use this slide when preparing your marketing campaign. The last slide can be used to prepare a business plan for the construction of waste recycling plants. Also, the slide can be used by the city authorities to alert the population about the need to sort waste by type. All slides of the Global Warming template are easy to edit. You can customize the slides yourself according to your needs. This template will be useful for university teachers when preparing a course on environmental protection or the impact of the greenhouse effect. The slides of this template will organically complement your presentations.

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Where does global warming occur in the atmosphere, why is global warming a social problem, where does global warming affect polar bears.

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• U.S. Department of Transportation - Global Warming: A Science Overview
• NOAA Climate.gov - Climate Change: Global Temperature
• Natural Resources Defense Council - Global Warming 101
• American Institute of Physics - The discovery of global warming
• LiveScience - Causes of Global Warming
• global warming - Children's Encyclopedia (Ages 8-11)
• global warming - Student Encyclopedia (Ages 11 and up)
• Table Of Contents

Human activity affects global surface temperatures by changing Earth ’s radiative balance—the “give and take” between what comes in during the day and what Earth emits at night. Increases in greenhouse gases —i.e., trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane that absorb heat energy emitted from Earth’s surface and reradiate it back—generated by industry and transportation cause the atmosphere to retain more heat, which increases temperatures and alters precipitation patterns.

Global warming, the phenomenon of increasing average air temperatures near Earth’s surface over the past one to two centuries, happens mostly in the troposphere , the lowest level of the atmosphere, which extends from Earth’s surface up to a height of 6–11 miles. This layer contains most of Earth’s clouds and is where living things and their habitats and weather primarily occur.

Continued global warming is expected to impact everything from energy use to water availability to crop productivity throughout the world. Poor countries and communities with limited abilities to adapt to these changes are expected to suffer disproportionately. Global warming is already being associated with increases in the incidence of severe and extreme weather, heavy flooding , and wildfires —phenomena that threaten homes, dams, transportation networks, and other facets of human infrastructure. Learn more about how the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, released in 2021, describes the social impacts of global warming.

Polar bears live in the Arctic , where they use the region’s ice floes as they hunt seals and other marine mammals . Temperature increases related to global warming have been the most pronounced at the poles, where they often make the difference between frozen and melted ice. Polar bears rely on small gaps in the ice to hunt their prey. As these gaps widen because of continued melting, prey capture has become more challenging for these animals.

Recent News

global warming , the phenomenon of increasing average air temperatures near the surface of Earth over the past one to two centuries. Climate scientists have since the mid-20th century gathered detailed observations of various weather phenomena (such as temperatures, precipitation , and storms) and of related influences on climate (such as ocean currents and the atmosphere’s chemical composition). These data indicate that Earth’s climate has changed over almost every conceivable timescale since the beginning of geologic time and that human activities since at least the beginning of the Industrial Revolution have a growing influence over the pace and extent of present-day climate change .

Giving voice to a growing conviction of most of the scientific community , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), published in 2021, noted that the best estimate of the increase in global average surface temperature between 1850 and 2019 was 1.07 °C (1.9 °F). An IPCC special report produced in 2018 noted that human beings and their activities have been responsible for a worldwide average temperature increase between 0.8 and 1.2 °C (1.4 and 2.2 °F) since preindustrial times, and most of the warming over the second half of the 20th century could be attributed to human activities.

AR6 produced a series of global climate predictions based on modeling five greenhouse gas emission scenarios that accounted for future emissions, mitigation (severity reduction) measures, and uncertainties in the model projections. Some of the main uncertainties include the precise role of feedback processes and the impacts of industrial pollutants known as aerosols , which may offset some warming. The lowest-emissions scenario, which assumed steep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions beginning in 2015, predicted that the global mean surface temperature would increase between 1.0 and 1.8 °C (1.8 and 3.2 °F) by 2100 relative to the 1850–1900 average. This range stood in stark contrast to the highest-emissions scenario, which predicted that the mean surface temperature would rise between 3.3 and 5.7 °C (5.9 and 10.2 °F) by 2100 based on the assumption that greenhouse gas emissions would continue to increase throughout the 21st century. The intermediate-emissions scenario, which assumed that emissions would stabilize by 2050 before declining gradually, projected an increase of between 2.1 and 3.5 °C (3.8 and 6.3 °F) by 2100.

Many climate scientists agree that significant societal, economic, and ecological damage would result if the global average temperature rose by more than 2 °C (3.6 °F) in such a short time. Such damage would include increased extinction of many plant and animal species, shifts in patterns of agriculture , and rising sea levels. By 2015 all but a few national governments had begun the process of instituting carbon reduction plans as part of the Paris Agreement , a treaty designed to help countries keep global warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above preindustrial levels in order to avoid the worst of the predicted effects. Whereas authors of the 2018 special report noted that should carbon emissions continue at their present rate, the increase in average near-surface air temperature would reach 1.5 °C sometime between 2030 and 2052, authors of the AR6 report suggested that this threshold would be reached by 2041 at the latest.

The AR6 report also noted that the global average sea level had risen by some 20 cm (7.9 inches) between 1901 and 2018 and that sea level rose faster in the second half of the 20th century than in the first half. It also predicted, again depending on a wide range of scenarios, that the global average sea level would rise by different amounts by 2100 relative to the 1995–2014 average. Under the report’s lowest-emission scenario, sea level would rise by 28–55 cm (11–21.7 inches), whereas, under the intermediate emissions scenario, sea level would rise by 44–76 cm (17.3–29.9 inches). The highest-emissions scenario suggested that sea level would rise by 63–101 cm (24.8–39.8 inches) by 2100.

The scenarios referred to above depend mainly on future concentrations of certain trace gases, called greenhouse gases , that have been injected into the lower atmosphere in increasing amounts through the burning of fossil fuels for industry, transportation , and residential uses. Modern global warming is the result of an increase in magnitude of the so-called greenhouse effect , a warming of Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere caused by the presence of water vapour , carbon dioxide , methane , nitrous oxides , and other greenhouse gases. In 2014 the IPCC first reported that concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides in the atmosphere surpassed those found in ice cores dating back 800,000 years.

Of all these gases, carbon dioxide is the most important, both for its role in the greenhouse effect and for its role in the human economy. It has been estimated that, at the beginning of the industrial age in the mid-18th century, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were roughly 280 parts per million (ppm). By the end of 2022 they had risen to 419 ppm, and, if fossil fuels continue to be burned at current rates, they are projected to reach 550 ppm by the mid-21st century—essentially, a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in 300 years.

A vigorous debate is in progress over the extent and seriousness of rising surface temperatures, the effects of past and future warming on human life, and the need for action to reduce future warming and deal with its consequences. This article provides an overview of the scientific background related to the subject of global warming. It considers the causes of rising near-surface air temperatures, the influencing factors, the process of climate research and forecasting, and the possible ecological and social impacts of rising temperatures. For an overview of the public policy developments related to global warming occurring since the mid-20th century, see global warming policy . For a detailed description of Earth’s climate, its processes, and the responses of living things to its changing nature, see climate . For additional background on how Earth’s climate has changed throughout geologic time , see climatic variation and change . For a full description of Earth’s gaseous envelope, within which climate change and global warming occur, see atmosphere .

Global Warming

Miss Parson – Allerton Grange School

Aims and objectives

• To be able to define and understand the process of Global Warming.
• Be able to describe the effects of Global Warming on a global and local scale.
• Be able to recognise how the effects of Global Warming can be reduced.

What is�Global Warming ?

Global warming is the increase in the world’s average temperature, believed to be the result from the release of carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels.

This increase in greenhouse gases is causing an increase in the rate of the greenhouse effect .

The Greenhouse�Effect

The earth is warming rather like the inside of a greenhouse. On a basic level the sun’s rays enter the earths atmosphere and are prevented from escaping by the greenhouse gases. This results in higher world temperatures.

In more detail………

Energy from the sun drives the earth's weather and climate, and heats the earth's surface; in turn, the earth radiates energy back into space. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases) trap some of the outgoing energy, retaining heat somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse.�

Without this natural "greenhouse effect," temperatures would be much lower than they are now, and life as known today would not be possible. Instead, thanks to greenhouse gases, the earth's average temperature is a more hospitable 60°F. However, problems may arise when the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases increases. �

What are the�greenhouse gases?

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased nearly 30%, methane concentrations have more than doubled, and nitrous oxide concentrations have risen by about 15%. Why are greenhouse gas concentrations increasing?

Burning of fossil fuels and other human activities are the primary reason for the increased concentration of carbon dioxide.

CFC’s from aerosols, air conditioners, foam packaging and refrigerators most damaging (approx 6%).

Methane is released from decaying organic matter, waste dumps, animal dung, swamps and peat bogs (approx 19%).

Nitrous Oxide is emitted from car exhausts, power stations and agricultural fertiliser (approx 6%).

The major contributor is Carbon Dioxide (approx 64%).

Task 1:The �Greenhouse Effect

Complete your worksheet by cutting and labeling the diagram and answering the questions

Task 2 : Effects of global warming

You are about to see a series of pictures which show some of the effects of global warming.

Draw a rough sketch then write down the effects or titles for the pictures you've drawn

I’m thinking !

What are the consequences of Global Warming?

What are the pictures showing, what are the effects of global warming?

How did�you do?

Hurricanes –extreme weather

Flooding of coastal areas

Desertification

Ice caps melt

Rise in temperatures

Loss of wildlife habitats and species

Sea level rise

Extreme storms

There are also some positive effects of global warming

• Decrease in death and disease
• Healthier, faster growing forests due to excess CO2
• Longer growing seasons
• Warmer temperatures (UK Mediterranean climate!!)
• Plants and shrubs will be able to grow further north and in present desert conditions
• Heavier rainfall in certain locations will give higher agricultural production (Rice in India, Wheat in Africa).

How can Global Warming be reduced?

• Reduce the use of fossil fuels. A major impact would be to find alternatives to coal, oil and gas power stations.
• Afforest areas, trees use up the CO2, reduce deforestation.
• Reduce the reliance on the car (promote shared public transport).
• Try to use energy efficiently (turn off lights and not use as much!).
• Reduce, Reuse, Recycle.
• Careful long term planning to reduce the impact of global warming.
• Global Warming is the increase in global temperatures due to the increased rate of the Greenhouse Effect.
• Greenhouse gases trap the incoming solar radiation, these gases include Carbon Dioxide, CFCs, Methane, Nitrous Oxides and other Halocarbons. These are released by human activity.
• We need the Greenhouse effect to maintain life on earth as we know it…however if we keep adding to the Greenhouse gases there will be many changes.
• Consequences can be negative ( ice caps melt, sea level rise, extreme weather conditions) or positive (more rain in drought areas, longer growing season).

Re do diagram slide 7

http://www.flickr.com/photos/wwworks/2222523486/ - slide 1

http://www.flickr.com/photos/dzwjedziak/375723120/ - slide 8 and 1

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bratan/452189020/ - slide 4

http://www.flickr.com/photos/hogbard/412932972/- slide 6

http://www.flickr.com/photos/tiger_empress/467671978/ - slide 8

http://www.flickr.com/photos/48135670@N00/97951579/ - slide 9,12

http://www.flickr.com/photos/60158441@N00/177929708/ - slide 9,12

http://www.flickr.com/photos/andzer/1480068258/ - slide 9,12

http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickrussill/146743082/ - slide 9,12

http://www.flickr.com/photos/dasha/443747644/ - slide 10,13

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11371618@N00/469788104/ - slide 10,13

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mikebaird/2087879492/ - slide 10,13

http://www.flickr.com/photos/7471118@N02/432453250/ - slide 10,13

http://www.flickr.com/photos/madron/2595909135/ - slide 11

http://www.flickr.com/photos/chi-liu/491412087/ - slide 12,13

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fabbriciuse/2073789872/ - slide 16

http://www.flickr.com/photos/algo/92463787/ - slide 16

http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickwheeleroz/2295584401/ - slide 16

http://www.flickr.com/photos/andidfl/229169559/ - slide 16

ENCYCLOPEDIC ENTRY

Global warming.

The causes, effects, and complexities of global warming are important to understand so that we can fight for the health of our planet.

Earth Science, Climatology

Tennessee Power Plant

Ash spews from a coal-fueled power plant in New Johnsonville, Tennessee, United States.

Photograph by Emory Kristof/ National Geographic

Global warming is the long-term warming of the planet’s overall temperature. Though this warming trend has been going on for a long time, its pace has significantly increased in the last hundred years due to the burning of fossil fuels . As the human population has increased, so has the volume of fossil fuels burned. Fossil fuels include coal, oil, and natural gas, and burning them causes what is known as the “greenhouse effect” in Earth’s atmosphere.

The greenhouse effect is when the sun’s rays penetrate the atmosphere, but when that heat is reflected off the surface cannot escape back into space. Gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels prevent the heat from leaving the atmosphere. These greenhouse gasses are carbon dioxide , chlorofluorocarbons, water vapor , methane , and nitrous oxide . The excess heat in the atmosphere has caused the average global temperature to rise overtime, otherwise known as global warming.

Global warming has presented another issue called climate change. Sometimes these phrases are used interchangeably, however, they are different. Climate change refers to changes in weather patterns and growing seasons around the world. It also refers to sea level rise caused by the expansion of warmer seas and melting ice sheets and glaciers . Global warming causes climate change, which poses a serious threat to life on Earth in the forms of widespread flooding and extreme weather. Scientists continue to study global warming and its impact on Earth.

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February 21, 2024

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Presentation and Press Releases

Presentation

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Press release

Summary for Policymakers

• I Introduction
• A Understanding Global Warming of 1.5°C*
• B Projected Climate Change, Potential Impacts and Associated Risks
• C Emission Pathways and System Transitions Consistent with 1.5°C Global Warming
• D Strengthening the Global Response in the Context of Sustainable Development and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty
• + Core Concepts Central to this Special Report
• + Acknowledgements
• SD SPM Downloads

Framing and Context

• ES Executive Summary
• 1.1.1 Equity and a 1.5°C Warmer World
• 1.1.2 Eradication of Poverty
• 1.1.3 Sustainable Development and a 1.5°C Warmer World
• 1.2.1.1 Definition of global average temperature
• 1.2.1.2 Choice of reference period
• 1.2.1.3 Total versus human-induced warming and warming rates
• 1.2.2 Global versus Regional and Seasonal Warming
• 1.2.3.1 Pathways remaining below 1.5°C
• 1.2.3.2 Pathways temporarily exceeding 1.5°C
• 1.2.3.3 Impacts at 1.5°C warming associated with different pathways: transience versus stabilisation
• 1.2.4 Geophysical Warming Commitment
• 1.3.1 Definitions
• 1.3.2 Drivers of Impacts
• 1.3.3 Uncertainty and Non-Linearity of Impacts
• 1.4.1 Classifying Response Options
• 1.4.2 Governance, Implementation and Policies
• 1.4.3 Transformation, Transformation Pathways, and Transition: Evaluating Trade-Offs and Synergies Between Mitigation, Adaptation and Sustainable Development Goals
• 1.5.1 Knowledge Sources and Evidence Used in the Report
• 1.5.2 Assessment Frameworks and Methodologies
• 1.6 Confidence, Uncertainty and Risk
• 1.7 Storyline of the Report
• FAQs Frequently Asked Questions
• SM Supplementary Material
• CD Chapter Downloads

Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development

• 2.1.1 Mitigation Pathways Consistent with 1.5°C
• 2.1.2 The Use of Scenarios
• 2.1.3 New Scenario Information since AR5
• 2.1.4 Utility of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) in the Context of this Report
• 2.2.1.1 Geophysical uncertainties: non-CO 2 forcing agents
• 2.2.1.2 Geophysical uncertainties: climate and Earth system feedbacks
• 2.2.2.1 Carbon budget estimates
• 2.2.2.2 CO 2 and non-CO 2 contributions to the remaining carbon budget
• 2.3.1.1 Socio-economic drivers and the demand for energy and land in 1.5°C pathways
• 2.3.1.2 Mitigation options in 1.5°C pathways
• 2.3.1.3 Policy assumptions in 1.5°C pathways
• 2.3.2.1 Variation in system transformations underlying 1.5°C pathways
• 2.3.2.2 Pathways keeping warming below 1.5°C or temporarily overshooting it
• 2.3.3.1 Emissions of long-lived climate forcers
• 2.3.3.2 Emissions of short-lived climate forcers and fluorinated gases
• 2.3.4.1 CDR technologies and deployment levels in 1.5°C pathways
• 2.3.4.2 Sustainability implications of CDR deployment in 1.5°C pathways
• 2.3.5 Implications of Near-Term Action in 1.5°C Pathways
• 2.4.1 Energy System Transformation
• 2.4.2.1 Evolution of primary energy contributions over time
• 2.4.2.2 Evolution of electricity supply over time
• 2.4.2.3 Deployment of carbon capture and storage
• 2.4.3.1 Industry
• 2.4.3.2 Buildings
• 2.4.3.3 Transport
• 2.4.4 Land-Use Transitions and Changes in the Agricultural Sector
• 2.5.1 Policy Frameworks and Enabling Conditions
• 2.5.2.1 Price of carbon emissions
• 2.5.2.2 Investments
• 2.5.3 Sustainable Development Features of 1.5°C Pathways
• 2.6.1 Geophysical Understanding
• 2.6.2 Integrated Assessment Approaches
• 2.6.3 Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

Impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems

• 3.1 About the Chapter
• 3.2.1 How are Changes in Climate and Weather at 1.5°C versus Higher Levels of Warming Assessed?
• 3.2.2 How are Potential Impacts on Ecosystems Assessed at 1.5°C versus Higher Levels of Warming?
• 3.3.1 Global Changes in Climate
• 3.3.2.1 Observed and attributed changes in regional temperature means and extremes
• 3.3.2.2 Projected changes in regional temperature means and extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C of global warming
• 3.3.3.1 Observed and attributed changes in regional precipitation
• 3.3.3.2 Projected changes in regional precipitation at 1.5°C versus 2°C of global warming
• 3.3.4.1 Observed and attributed changes
• 3.3.4.2 Projected changes in drought and dryness at 1.5°C versus 2°C
• 3.3.5.1 Observed and attributed changes in runoff and river flooding
• 3.3.5.2 Projected changes in runoff and river flooding at 1.5°C versus 2°C of global warming
• 3.3.6 Tropical Cyclones and Extratropical Storms
• 3.3.7 Ocean Circulation and Temperature
• 3.3.8 Sea Ice
• 3.3.9 Sea Level
• 3.3.10 Ocean Chemistry
• 3.3.11 Global Synthesis
• 3.4.1 Introduction
• 3.4.2.1 Water availability
• 3.4.2.2 Extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts)
• 3.4.2.3 Groundwater
• 3.4.2.4 Water quality
• 3.4.2.5 Soil erosion and sediment load
• 3.4.3.1 Biome shifts
• 3.4.3.2 Changes in phenology
• 3.4.3.3 Changes in species range, abundance and extinction
• 3.4.3.4 Changes in ecosystem function, biomass and carbon stocks
• 3.4.3.5 Regional and ecosystem-specific risks
• 3.4.3.6 Summary of implications for ecosystem services
• 3.4.4.1 Observed impacts
• 3.4.4.2 Warming and stratification of the surface ocean
• 3.4.4.3 Storms and coastal runoff
• 3.4.4.4 Ocean circulation
• 3.4.4.5 Ocean acidification
• 3.4.4.6 Deoxygenation
• 3.4.4.7 Loss of sea ice
• 3.4.4.8 Sea level rise
• 3.4.4.9 Projected risks and adaptation options for oceans under global warming of 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels
• 3.4.4.10 Framework organisms (tropical corals, mangroves and seagrass)
• 3.4.4.11 Ocean foodwebs (pteropods, bivalves, krill and fin fish)
• 3.4.4.12 Key ecosystem services (e.g., carbon uptake, coastal protection, and tropical coral reef recreation)
• 3.4.5.1 Global / sub-global scale
• 3.4.5.2 Cities
• 3.4.5.3 Small islands
• 3.4.5.4 Deltas and estuaries
• 3.4.5.5 Wetlands
• 3.4.5.6 Other coastal settings
• 3.4.5.7 Adapting to coastal change
• 3.4.6.1 Crop production
• 3.4.6.2 Livestock production
• 3.4.6.3 Fisheries and aquaculture production
• 3.4.7.1 Projected risk at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming
• 3.4.8 Urban Areas
• 3.4.9.1 Tourism
• 3.4.9.2 Energy systems
• 3.4.9.3 Transportation
• 3.4.10.1 Livelihoods and poverty
• 3.4.10.2 The changing structure of communities: migration, displacement and conflict
• 3.4.11 Interacting and Cascading Risks
• 3.4.12 Summary of Projected Risks at 1.5°C and 2°C of Global Warming
• 3.4.13 Synthesis of Key Elements of Risk
• 3.5.1 Introduction
• 3.5.2.1 RFC 1 – Unique and threatened systems
• 3.5.2.2 RFC 2 – Extreme weather events
• 3.5.2.3 RFC 3 – Distribution of impacts
• 3.5.2.4 RFC 4 – Global aggregate impacts
• 3.5.2.5 RFC 5 – Large-scale singular events
• 3.5.3 Regional Economic Benefit Analysis for the 1.5°C versus 2°C Global Goals
• 3.5.4.1 Arctic sea ice
• 3.5.4.2 Arctic land regions
• 3.5.4.3 Alpine regions
• 3.5.4.4 Southeast Asia
• 3.5.4.5 Southern Europe and the Mediterranean
• 3.5.4.6 West Africa and the Sahel
• 3.5.4.7 Southern Africa
• 3.5.4.8 Tropics
• 3.5.4.9 Small islands
• 3.5.4.10 Fynbos and shrub biomes
• 3.5.5.1 Arctic sea ice
• 3.5.5.2 Tundra
• 3.5.5.3 Permafrost
• 3.5.5.4 Asian monsoon
• 3.5.5.5 West African monsoon and the Sahel
• 3.5.5.6 Rainforests
• 3.5.5.7 Boreal forests
• 3.5.5.8 Heatwaves, unprecedented heat and human health
• 3.5.5.9 Agricultural systems: key staple crops
• 3.5.5.10 Agricultural systems: livestock in the tropics and subtropics
• 3.6.1 Gradual versus Overshoot in 1.5°C Scenarios
• 3.6.2.1 Risks arising from land-use changes in mitigation pathways
• 3.6.2.2 Biophysical feedbacks on regional climate associated with land-use changes
• 3.6.2.3 Atmospheric compounds (aerosols and methane)
• 3.6.3.1 Sea ice
• 3.6.3.2 Sea level
• 3.6.3.3 Permafrost
• 3.7.1 Gaps in Methods and Tools
• 3.7.2.1 Earth systems and 1.5°C of global warming
• 3.7.2.2 Physical and chemical characteristics of a 1.5°C warmer world
• 3.7.2.3 Terrestrial and freshwater systems
• 3.7.2.4 Ocean Systems
• 3.7.2.5 Human systems

Strengthening and implementing the global response

• 4.1 Accelerating the Global Response to Climate Change
• 4.2.1.1 Challenges and Opportunities for Mitigation Along the Reviewed Pathways
• 4.2.1.2 Implications for Adaptation Along the Reviewed Pathways
• 4.2.2.1 Mitigation: historical rates of change and state of decoupling
• 4.2.2.2 Transformational adaptation
• 4.2.2.3 Disruptive innovation
• 4.3.1.1 Renewable electricity: solar and wind
• 4.3.1.2 Bioenergy and biofuels
• 4.3.1.3 Nuclear energy
• 4.3.1.4 Energy storage
• 4.3.1.5 Options for adapting electricity systems to 1.5°C
• 4.3.1.6 Carbon dioxide capture and storage in the power sector
• 4.3.2.1 Agriculture and food
• 4.3.2.2 Forests and other ecosystems
• 4.3.2.3 Coastal systems
• 4.3.3.1 Urban energy systems
• 4.3.3.2 Urban infrastructure, buildings and appliances
• 4.3.3.3 Urban transport and urban planning
• 4.3.3.4 Electrification of cities and transport
• 4.3.3.5 Shipping, freight and aviation
• 4.3.3.6 Climate-resilient land use
• 4.3.3.8 Sustainable urban water and environmental services
• 4.3.3.7 Green urban infrastructure and ecosystem services
• 4.3.4.1 Energy efficiency
• 4.3.4.2 Substitution and circularity
• 4.3.4.3 Bio-based feedstocks
• 4.3.4.4 Electrification and hydrogen
• 4.3.4.5 CO2 capture, utilization and storage in industry
• 4.3.5.1 Disaster risk management (DRM)
• 4.3.5.2 Risk sharing and spreading
• 4.3.5.3 Education and learning
• 4.3.5.4 Population health and health system adaptation options
• 4.3.5.5 Indigenous knowledge
• 4.3.5.6 Human migration
• 4.3.5.7 Climate services
• 4.3.6 Short-Lived Climate Forcers
• 4.3.7.1 Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
• 4.3.7.2 Afforestation and reforestation (AR)
• 4.3.7.3 Soil carbon sequestration and biochar
• 4.3.7.4 Enhanced weathering (EW) and ocean alkalinization
• 4.3.7.5 Direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage (DACCS)
• 4.3.7.6 Ocean fertilization
• 4.3.8.1 Governance and institutional feasibility
• 4.3.8.2 Economic and technological feasibility
• 4.3.8.3 Social acceptability and ethics
• 4.4.1.1 Institutions and their capacity to invoke far-reaching and rapid change
• 4.4.1.2 International governance
• 4.4.1.3 Sub-national governance
• 4.4.1.4 Interactions and processes for multilevel governance
• 4.4.2.1 Capacity for policy design and implementation
• 4.4.2.2 Monitoring, reporting, and review institutions
• 4.4.2.3 Financial institutions
• 4.4.2.4 Co-operative institutions and social safety nets
• 4.4.3.1 Factors related to climate actions
• 4.4.3.2 Strategies and policies to promote actions on climate change
• 4.4.3.3 Acceptability of policy and system changes
• 4.4.4.1 The nature of technological innovations
• 4.4.4.2 Technologies as enablers of climate action
• 4.4.4.3 The role of government in 1.5°C-consistent climate technology policy
• 4.4.4.4 Technology transfer in the Paris Agreement
• 4.4.5.1 The core challenge: cost-efficiency, coordination of expectations and distributive effects
• 4.4.5.2 Carbon pricing: necessity and constraints
• 4.4.5.3 Regulatory measures and information flows
• 4.4.5.4 Scaling up climate finance and de-risking low-emission investments
• 4.4.5.5 Financial challenge for basic needs and adaptation finance
• 4.4.5.6 Towards integrated policy packages and innovative forms of financial cooperation
• 4.5.1 Assessing Feasibility of Options for Accelerated Transitions
• 4.5.2.1 Assessing mitigation options for limiting warming to 1.5˚C against feasibility dimensions
• Enabling conditions for implementation of mitigation options towards 1.5˚C
• 4.5.3.1 Feasible adaptation options
• 4.5.3.2 Monitoring and evaluation
• 4.5.4 Synergies and Trade-Offs between Adaptation and Mitigation
• 4.6 Knowledge Gaps and Key Uncertainties

Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities

• 5.1.1 Sustainable Development, SDGs, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities
• 5.1.2 Pathways to 1.5°C
• 5.1.3 Types of Evidence
• 5.2.1 Impacts and Risks of a 1.5°C Warmer World: Implications for Poverty and Livelihoods
• 5.2.2 Avoided Impacts of 1.5°C versus 2°C Warming for Poverty and Inequality
• 5.2.3 Risks from 1.5°C versus 2°C Global Warming and the Sustainable Development Goals
• 5.3.1 Sustainable Development in Support of Climate Adaptation
• 5.3.2 Synergies and Trade-Offs between Adaptation Options and Sustainable Development
• 5.3.3 Adaptation Pathways towards a 1.5°C Warmer World and Implications for Inequalities
• 5.4.1.1 Energy Demand: Mitigation Options to Accelerate Reduction in Energy Use and Fuel Switch
• 5.4.1.2 Energy Supply: Accelerated Decarbonization
• 5.4.1.3 Land-based agriculture, forestry and ocean: mitigation response options and carbon dioxide removal
• 5.4.2.1 Air pollution and health
• 5.4.2.2 Food security and hunger
• 5.4.2.3 Lack of energy access/energy poverty
• 5.4.2.4 Water security
• 5.5.1 Integration of Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development
• 5.5.2 Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development
• 5.5.3.1 Transformations, equity and well-being
• 5.5.3.2 Development trajectories, sharing of efforts and cooperation
• 5.5.3.3 Country and community strategies and experiences
• 5.6.1 Finance and Technology Aligned with Local Needs
• 5.6.2 Integration of Institutions
• 5.6.3 Inclusive Processes
• 5.6.4 Attention to Issues of Power and Inequality
• 5.6.5 Reconsidering Values
• 5.7 Synthesis and Research Gaps
• GD Glossary Downloads

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• Published: 24 July 2024

Asymmetries in the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake

• Richard G. Williams   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-7558 1 ,
• Andrew J. S. Meijers   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3876-7736 2 ,
• Vassil M. Roussenov   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4128-9712 1 ,
• Anna Katavouta   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-1587-4996 3 ,
• Paulo Ceppi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3754-3506 4 ,
• Jonathan P. Rosser   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7748-319X 2 , 5 &
• Pietro Salvi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5181-2752 6  

Nature Climate Change ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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• Climate and Earth system modelling
• Climate-change impacts
• Physical oceanography

The Southern Ocean provides dominant contributions to global ocean heat and carbon uptake, which is widely interpreted as resulting from its unique upwelling and circulation. Here we show a large asymmetry in these contributions, with the Southern Ocean accounting for 83 ± 33% of global heat uptake versus 43 ± 3% of global ocean carbon uptake over the historical period in state-of-the-art climate models. Using single radiative forcing experiments, we demonstrate that this historical asymmetry is due to suppressed heat uptake by northern oceans from enhanced aerosol forcing. In future projections, such as SSP2-4.5 where greenhouse gases increasingly dominate radiative forcing, the Southern Ocean contributions to global heat and carbon uptake become more comparable, 52 ± 5% and 47 ± 4%, respectively. Hence, the past is not a reliable indicator of the future, with the northern oceans becoming important for heat uptake while the Southern Ocean remains important for both heat and carbon uptake.

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The Southern Ocean plays a key role in the climate system by upwelling deep waters to the surface 1 and by ventilating the ocean through the formation of mode, intermediate and bottom waters 2 , 3 . Air–sea exchange acts to equilibrate the surface waters so that the upwelling of cold, old waters leads to an enhanced Southern Ocean uptake of excess heat and carbon from the atmosphere 4 , 5 . This enhanced Southern Ocean uptake does not lead to a proportionally large increase in Southern Ocean heat and carbon storage owing to redistribution by overturning circulations to the rest of the global ocean. The overturning circulation provides a northward transport of heat and anthropogenic carbon over the upper ocean, so that regions of enhanced ocean heat storage are downstream of the regions of enhanced air–sea heat uptake in the Southern Ocean 4 and there is a delay in climatically driven surface warming in the Southern Ocean 6 .

This crucial role of the Southern Ocean in sequestering heat and carbon is highlighted in analyses of a suite of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) integrated over the historical period from 1861 to 2005, revealing that the Southern Ocean accounted for 75 ± 22% of the heat uptake and 43 ± 3% of the carbon uptake by the global ocean over the historical period 7 . This disproportionately important role of the Southern Ocean in the global climate system is in keeping with its unique contribution to the upwelling of deep waters and ventilation of the global ocean.

A dominant role of the Southern Ocean for surface heat uptake is expected given the nature of the physical circulation, involving surface warming of upwelled cold water and subsequent redistribution of heat by a combination of the overturning and gyre circulations. However, it remains unclear why the Southern Ocean is not similarly important for carbon uptake. A priori, ventilation pathways of heat and carbon are expected to be broadly similar over the global ocean 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , so that the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake might be expected to be similarly dominant.

There are several possible explanations for this discrepancy. First, ocean uptake of heat from the atmosphere is influenced by radiative forcing and climate feedbacks 13 , while the ocean uptake of carbon from the atmosphere is instead affected by carbonate-chemistry feedbacks 14 , 15 , 16 and a lesser extent by biological processes, which may lead to different regional responses. Second, the redistribution of anthropogenic heat and carbon may differ due to the regional contrasts in pre-industrial temperature being much larger and opposite in sign to those of dissolved inorganic carbon 17 , 18 , which may lead to opposite-signed upper ocean heat and carbon anomalies. Thus, the relatively enhanced Southern Ocean uptake of heat compared with carbon might possibly be viewed as being due to differences in thermal and carbon processes and/or ocean redistribution for heat and carbon.

Notwithstanding the differences in heat and carbon cycling described above, here we propose a simpler explanation for the discrepancy in Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake in terms of the hemispheric differences in radiative forcing. We diagnose the response of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) projections over the historical period, including experiments with single-component radiative forcings, and explore how this response differs for future projections up to year 2100 following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario.

Historical Southern Ocean contribution

Over the historical period, the Southern Ocean (defined here, as in ref. 7 , as south of 30° S) provides the dominant contribution to the global uptake of heat (Fig. 1a , left), accounting for 83 ± 33% of the rise in global ocean heat content between the decades of 1851–1860 and 2005–2014 on the basis of the multi-model, single-ensemble mean of 17 CMIP6 models (Table 1 , list of models in Table 2 and individual responses in Supplementary Table 1 ). There is a large inter-model range in the Southern Ocean contribution. The rise in Southern Ocean heat uptake is relatively consistent between these two periods for these models, providing a model mean and standard deviation for the time-integrated surface heat uptake of 30 ± 6 × 10 22  J. However, there is a corresponding wide range of model responses over the northern oceans for the surface heat uptake, −6 ± 16 × 10 22  J between these two periods, ranging from a strong heat loss to a modest heat uptake, leading to a northern ocean contribution of −17 ± 50% to the global ocean heat uptake (Supplementary Table 1 ). This hemispheric difference leads to the Southern Ocean heat uptake being comparable to the global ocean heat uptake of 36 ± 18 × 10 22  J between these two periods. Hence, the large inter-model variability in the fraction of global heat uptake provided by the Southern Ocean is primarily due to the variability in the heat uptake by the northern oceans. While there is internal variability in the Earth system responses, the individual model ensembles all reveal that the Southern Ocean plays a more dominant role in heat uptake than the northern oceans (Supplementary Fig. 1a ).

a – d , The global (black line), northern ocean (red line) and Southern Ocean (blue line) uptakes for heat (left column) and carbon (right) over the historical period from 1850 to 2014 including all forcings (17 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat and 20 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for carbon) ( a ), single radiative forcing experiments over the historical period with either only greenhouse gases ( b ) or aerosols (five CMIP6 models with ensemble means for heat and five models with single ensembles for carbon) ( c ) and future projections following the SSP2-4.5 scenario from 2015 to 2100 from a subset of CMIP6 models (10 for heat and 17 for carbon) ( d ). The model mean and standard deviation are denoted by the lines and shading, and northern oceans and Southern Ocean domains defined as north of 30° N and south of 30° S, respectively.

Turning to carbon uptake, we find that the Southern Ocean again provides a dominant contribution (Fig. 1a , right; 54 ± 5 Pg C; Supplementary Table 2 ), accounting for 43 ± 3% of the rise in global ocean uptake between the decade of 1851–1860 and 2005–2014 based on a multi-model, single-ensemble mean of 20 CMIP6 models (Table 1 ). In this case, the northern oceans consistently provide an uptake of carbon (26 ± 4 Pg C; Supplementary Table 2 ) accounting for 21 ± 2% of the global ocean carbon uptake. Hence, there is a much smaller range in the Southern Ocean or northern oceans contributions to the global ocean uptake of carbon compared with those for heat uptake. These CMIP6 results are broadly comparable to analyses of CMIP5 Earth system models 7 .

The relative importance of the Southern Ocean in sequestering heat and carbon is highlighted here by comparing their fractional contributions with the global ocean uptake: the ratio of the fraction of global uptake provided by the Southern Ocean for heat versus carbon typically varies from 1.7 to 1.9 across the suite of models over the historical period (Table 1 ). Hence, the Southern Ocean is disproportionately important in sequestering heat as opposed to carbon over the historical period.

We now explore the role of atmospheric heat sources involving regional differences in radiative forcing as a candidate driver for the asymmetry in how important the Southern Ocean is in contributing to the global uptake of heat and carbon.

Sensitivity of ocean heat uptake

The radiative forcing involves competing warming effects from greenhouse gases and cooling effects from aerosols. The aerosol forcing includes a direct effect involving the scattering and absorption of shortwave radiation, and indirect effects altering cloud albedo and cloud lifetime 19 . Over the historical period, there are large hemispheric contrasts in radiative forcing 20 , 21 : cooling from aerosols effectively offsets the warming from greenhouse gases over much of the Northern Hemisphere 19 , while this effect from aerosols is more limited over the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, most of the global supply of anomalous radiative heat to the surface occurs over the Southern Hemisphere 20 , 21 .

Correspondingly, over the historical period, the hemispheric contrast in ocean heat uptake is consistent with the contrast in the planetary heat uptake at the top of the atmosphere (Fig. 2a , left). There is heat gain over the latitudes of the Southern Ocean (90–30° S) for the surface and top of the atmosphere, compared with a heat loss over the latitudes of the northern oceans (30–90° N). In contrast, the carbon uptake is more comparable between hemispheres (Fig. 2a , right), so it does not reveal the hemispheric asymmetry seen for heat uptake. This analysis is consistent with the prior CMIP5 analysis of ref. 7 ; see Supplementary Fig. 2 for the same historical time periods used in that analysis, 1861–1880 to 1986–2005.

a – d , The historical changes in heat (left) and carbon (right) for all radiative forcings and single radiative forcing experiments ( a ) only including the effects of greenhouse gases ( b ) or aerosols ( c ), compared with future projected changes following SSP2-4.5 ( d ). The cumulative changes in a – c are for a recent decade 2005–2014 relative to a decade in the pre-industrial era 1851–1860 and for d for 2091–2100 relative to 2015–2024, which are evaluated for the top of the atmosphere, the surface ocean and the ocean interior, and implied transports through latitudes of 30° N and 30° S. Diagnostics are based on 17 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat and 20 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for carbon ( a ); 5 CMIP6 models with ensemble means for heat and single ensembles for carbon ( b and c ); and 10 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat and 17 for carbon ( d ).

To quantify the dependence of the fractional heat and carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean on the nature of the radiative forcing, we now examine CMIP6 experiments with single radiative forcing, where the radiative forcing is based either on historical greenhouse gas changes or historical non-greenhouse changes in aerosols. The greenhouse gases are assumed to be well mixed and ozone is fixed in time in the troposphere and stratosphere.

When the radiative forcing only consists of greenhouse gases, the northern and Southern oceans provide a comparable contribution to the global uptake of heat (Fig. 1b and Supplementary Fig. 1b for individual model ensembles) with an accompanying heat uptake at the top of the atmosphere over the latitudes of the northern oceans (30–90° N), based on analyses of five CMIP6 models (Fig. 2b ). Hence, if there is only greenhouse gas forcing, the Southern Ocean proportion of global heat uptake decreases to 45 ± 5% and becomes effectively the same as its proportion of global ocean carbon uptake of 45 ± 4% (Table 1b and Extended Data Fig. 1a,b ). In contrast, when the radiative forcing is only from aerosols, there is a marked Northern Hemisphere heat loss (see Figs. 1c and 2c and Supplementary Fig. 1c for individual model ensembles).

The different choices of radiative forcing affect the ocean redistribution of heat, as well as the ocean uptake of heat. The model-mean ocean heat transport at 30° N changes from being northward (14 ± 18 × 10 22  J) over the historical period for all forcings, supplying heat to the northern oceans, to weakly southward (−10 ± 15 × 10 22  J) for only greenhouse gas forcing and more strongly northward (32 ± 13 × 10 22  J) for only aerosol forcing (Fig. 2a–c ).

These contrasting thermal responses may be understood from the model-mean patterns in the temporal change in the radiative forcing, F , and the planetary heat uptake at the top of the atmosphere, N ( Methods ), and their connection to the surface heat flux into the ocean. For the historical case with both greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing , F reaches 3 W m −2 over the tropics (directed into the ocean), but decreases to −3 W m −2 over parts of the Northern Hemisphere (Fig. 3a ). The resulting heat uptake at the top of the atmosphere, N , is broadly similar to F —positive over the tropics and negative over parts of the Northern Hemisphere—but is enhanced by climate feedback over the latitudes of the Southern Ocean by typically 2 W m −2 . This climate feedback is also revealed in Earth system model diagnostics for an idealized scenario of an annual increase of 1% atmospheric CO 2 , where the climate feedback is due to a positive albedo feedback 22 from a reduction in sea ice.

a – d , Maps of the temporal change in the radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (W m −2 ), planetary heat uptake (W m −2 ), surface ocean heat uptake (W m −2 ) and surface ocean CO 2 uptake (mol C m −2  yr −1 ) evaluated for the historical period for all forcings ( a ), single radiative forcing experiments including only the effects of greenhouse gases ( b ) or aerosols ( c ) and compared with future projections following SSP2-4.5 (shown with an increased range for the radiative and thermal fluxes) ( d ). The maps in a – c are for a recent decade 2005–2014 relative to a decade in the pre-industrial era 1851–1860 and for d for 2091–2100 relative to 1851–1860. Diagnostics are based on model means: 17 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat, 20 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for carbon ( a ); 5 CMIP6 models with ensemble means for heat and single ensembles for carbon ( b and c ); and 10 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat and 17 for carbon ( d ). Accompanying standard deviations are shown in Supplementary Fig. 3 .

The temporal change in the model-mean surface ocean heat input reaches 10 W m −2 and is enhanced over much of the Southern Ocean together with localized regions of heat input over the eastern tropical Pacific and the subpolar North Atlantic and North Pacific. In contrast, the temporal change in the model-mean surface flux of CO 2 is directed into the ocean over most of the Southern Ocean and more extensively over the high latitude regions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The inter-model spread in surface heat and carbon uptake by the ocean is greatest over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean (Supplementary Fig. 3 ).

For the historical case with only greenhouse gas forcing, the radiative forcing F becomes positive over the entire globe with enhanced values over the tropics and slightly weaker values over the high latitudes (Fig. 3b ). In turn, the heat uptake at the top of the atmosphere N becomes more symmetric across both hemispheres in this case, reflecting the pattern of radiative forcing, and again includes an enhancement in planetary heat uptake from climate feedback over the latitudes of the Southern Ocean. The surface heat flux into the ocean remains large into the Southern Ocean, but increases in the north, especially over the subpolar North Atlantic.

For the historical case with only aerosol forcing, the radiative forcing F instead becomes negative (Fig. 3c ), especially over the Northern Hemisphere. This negative F drives a heat loss at the top of the atmosphere over much of the globe with only a weak heat input over parts of the Southern Hemisphere. The surface heat flux into the ocean becomes negative over much of the surface ocean with a pronounced surface heat loss over the subpolar North Atlantic, reflecting the hemispheric bias in aerosol distribution 19 .

In summary, the single radiative forcing experiments endorse the view that over the historical period, the hemispheric contrasts in radiative forcing are primarily due to aerosol forcing 19 , 20 , 21 , acting to offset and oppose the heat input at the top of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases over the Northern Hemisphere, while only having a limited effect over the Southern Hemisphere. Climate feedbacks 13 , 22 , 23 act to weakly enhance the heat input over the latitudes of the Southern Ocean. The radiative responses at the top of the atmosphere then lead to hemispheric contrasts in the area-integrated surface heat flux into the ocean. The surface heat flux is directed into the ocean over the Southern Hemisphere, especially over the Southern Ocean, and is instead directed out of the ocean over parts of the northern oceans. The strength and sign of the surface heat loss over the northern oceans varies with the radiative forcing and the contribution of aerosols (Figs. 2a–c and 3a–c ). There is not the same hemispheric asymmetry in the ocean carbon uptake. Hence, the hemispheric contrasts in radiative forcing over the historical period give rise to the asymmetry between the patterns of ocean heat and carbon uptake, which in turn lead to the Southern Ocean providing a much more dominant contribution to global ocean uptake of heat than carbon.

Southern Ocean future response

Next, we consider what the future might hold for the role of the Southern Ocean in sequestering heat and carbon over the global ocean. Following the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2-4.5, both the Southern Ocean and northern oceans make important contributions to how heat is sequestered by the end of the century. For this scenario, the radiative forcing from aerosols decreases in magnitude from −0.6 W m −2 at year 2020 to −0.2 W m −2 at year 2100 24 .

The radiative forcing, F , is much more evenly distributed from the increasing greenhouse gases in SSP2-4.5 and is projected to reach 6 W m −2 over much of the globe (Fig. 3d ). The heat flux at the top of the atmosphere, N , reaches 6 W m −2 over the tropical Pacific and 2–3 W m −2 over the latitudes of the Southern Ocean. This future pattern in heat uptake at the top of the atmosphere is consistent with the future pattern in surface heat uptake strengthening and becoming more symmetric between the hemisphere (Fig. 3d ), compared with the historical cases.

Accordingly, in the projections, the Southern Ocean (Figs. 1d and 2d ) reduces its proportion of global heat uptake to 52 ± 7% in the multi-model, single-ensemble mean, while the Northern Hemisphere contribution increases to 38 ± 8% (Table 1c , Supplementary Table 1 for 10 CMIP6 models and Supplementary Fig. 3a,c ). The heat transport at 30° N changes to being directed southward rather than northward as in the historical period (Fig. 2d ).

The global contribution of the Southern Ocean to global heat uptake, 52 ± 7%, is now much more comparable to its contribution to global ocean carbon uptake of 47 ± 4%, based on a multi-model, single-ensemble mean of 17 CMIP6 models (Fig. 1d , Table 1c and Extended Data Figs. 1a,c and 2 relative to the pre-industrial era).

There is a future projected slight decrease in the effectiveness of the northern oceans in sequestering carbon, dropping from 21 ± 2% over the historical period to 16 ± 2% for the SSP2 scenario (Extended Data Fig. 1a,c ). This reduction mainly involves a decrease over the North Atlantic. This relative weakening in carbon uptake in the northern oceans is partly offset by an increase in the northward transport of carbon from the Southern Ocean and the tropics (Fig. 2d ).

This change in character of how the Southern Ocean and northern oceans contribute to the global heat and carbon uptake is demonstrated in scatter plots for the individual Earth system models (Fig. 4a,b ), revealing the much greater Southern Ocean contribution to global heat uptake for the historical period compared with a more comparable contribution to global heat uptake and carbon uptake in the future (see model-mean time-varying responses in Fig. 4c,d ). This more comparable role of the Southern Ocean for heat and carbon is also evident for an idealized scenario of a 1% annual increase in atmospheric CO 2 , which demonstrates a Southern Ocean contribution south of 30° S of 44 ± 5% for heat uptake and 47 ± 2% for carbon uptake 23 (Table 1 and Supplementary Table 3 for 11 CMIP6 models).

a , b , Individual model responses for the percentages of global heat versus global carbon uptake occurring over the Southern Ocean ( a ) or northern ocean ( b ) for recent historical period 2005–2014 (circles) and for future projections for the period 2091–2100 following the SSP2-4.5 scenario (stars). c , d , Model-mean, time-varying contributions for the percentages of global heat versus global carbon uptake occurring over the Southern Ocean ( c ) and the northern oceans ( d ), which are colour coded in time from year 1900 (blue) onwards to year 2100 (yellow). Diagnostics are based on 11 CMIP6 models for the historical period and 7 CMIP6 models for the future period to 2100. The Southern Ocean historically provides a larger contribution to global heat uptake compared with carbon uptake, whereas its contributions to global heat and carbon uptake become more comparable to future projections following SSP2-4.5.

Over the historical period, the Southern Ocean has played a more important role than the northern oceans in how heat is sequestered relative to carbon. There has typically been nearly twice as large a contribution of the Southern Ocean to heat uptake than carbon uptake for the global ocean. While there are unique upwelling and overturning circulations occurring in the Southern Ocean, our analysis suggests that the primary reason for the enhanced Southern Ocean uptake of heat relative to carbon are differences in their atmospheric sources. Over the historical period, there are strong hemispheric contrasts in radiative forcing, with non-greenhouse gas radiative forcing from aerosols providing a cooling over much of the Northern Hemisphere, competing with the greenhouse gas forcing providing a warming over both hemispheres 19 , 20 , 21 . Thus, the net radiative forcing providing the overall heat input into the global ocean is preferentially occurring over the Southern Ocean 25 , 26 . In contrast, the atmospheric CO 2 source occurs more evenly over both hemispheres, providing a more comparable input over both the northern oceans and the Southern Ocean. For idealized scenario experiments that only include radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, the Southern Ocean likewise provides very similar global ocean contributions to the uptake of heat and carbon 22 .

The historical asymmetry in radiative forcing does not lead to large hemispheric differences in ocean heat storage (Fig. 2 ), as is also seen in observations, such as the similar hemispheric sea level change records 26 . Instead, the regional effect of aerosol cooling 19 , 20 , 21 has been partly offset by a strengthening in the ocean overturning 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 and the resulting redistribution of heat. There are notable inter-model differences in the Earth system model responses, particularly for the thermal responses. There are a range of reasons for these differences: model differences in the treatment of non-CO 2 radiative forcing agents, particularly aerosols and their indirect cloud effects 19 , 28 ; the representation of climate feedbacks, particularly involving clouds and sea ice 13 , 23 ; and differences in the strength of the ocean overturning 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , acting to redistribute heat and carbon.

The dominance of the Southern Ocean over the historical period for global heat uptake relative to carbon uptake is likely to alter in the future, as radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increasingly dominates 24 and aerosol forcing weakens 28 . This change in radiative forcing alters the ocean redistribution of heat: the multi-model mean for the ocean heat transport at 30° N is northward over the historical period, offsetting a surface heat loss over the northern oceans, and changes sign to southward for the future SSP2-4.5 scenario, redistributing a surface heat gain over the northern oceans (Fig. 2a,d ).

For future scenarios, following either a plausible choice of SSP2-4.5 or an idealized annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO 2 , the Southern Ocean provides a much more comparable contribution to the global ocean uptake of heat and carbon, consistent with the northern oceans becoming important in sequestering heat as well as carbon. The shift from Northern Hemisphere heat loss towards a gain is evident even in historical scenarios where the heat loss progressively reduces from the mid-1980s onward. This response is evident in other CMIP6 analyses of Northern Hemisphere heat uptake 30 , 31 and is probably related to the reduction in aerosol concentrations following emission control efforts 32 .

Our findings may be generalized to emphasize the importance of atmospheric sources of heat and carbon in determining the global efficiency of ocean heat and carbon uptake, which is at the heart of uncertainties in climate projections. For example, in a scenario where the sources are concentrated in the high latitudes, a greater fraction of that excess heat or carbon may be taken up by the ocean (because the high latitudes are efficient at taking up heat or carbon), whereas in a scenario where the sources are focused on the tropics, the fraction of excess heat or carbon taken up by the ocean may be less.

Finally, the past response of the ocean in the climate system might not be a reliable indicator of its future role, as differences in the past and future patterns in radiative forcing affect which ocean ventilation regions are important in how heat is sequestered compared with how carbon is sequestered. This finding challenges the widely held view of the unique Southern Ocean overturning circulation being the linchpin of global ocean warming, instead suggesting that its importance is currently exacerbated due to hemispheric biases in surface heating, and that its role in future warming will be reduced relative to that of the rest of the global ocean.

The role of the Southern Ocean in determining the global climate response to historical radiative forcing, including the effect of greenhouse gases affected by carbon emissions and non-greenhouse gas forcing from aerosols, is assessed following the CMIP6 experiments over the historical period. Different subsets of the CMIP6 models are utilized depending on the data archived and model experiments performed (Table 2 ). The surface warming and top-of-the-atmosphere heat balance are diagnosed using a multi-model, single-ensemble mean from 17 CMIP6 models and the ocean carbon uptake using a multi-model, single-ensemble mean from 20 CMIP6 models. Experiments with different radiative forcing are conducted with a smaller subset of five CMIP6 models due to limited data availability, but are based on ensemble means (Table 2 ). When multiple ensembles are available for a given model run, these are first averaged together before calculating heat content and heat uptake (Supplementary Information 2 ). The global and regional values are calculated as area integrals over the globe or over the region south of 30° S for the Southern Ocean or over the region to the north of 30° N for the northern oceans.

For all model variables, the underlying model drift is corrected for by subtracting the parallel pre-industrial control integration, where there is no external forcing (that is, no greenhouse nor aerosol emissions and associated radiative forcing).

The mean and standard deviations of the percentage contribution 55 that a region makes to global uptake is evaluated from the model mean, standard deviation and correlation for the regional uptake, A , and global uptake, B : the model mean of the ratio is taken from \(\hat{A}/\hat{B}\) where \(\hat{A}\) and \(\hat{B}\) are their model means; and the standard deviation of the ratio is taken from \({\sigma }_{A/B}=\left|\frac{\hat{A}}{\hat{B}}\right|{\left({\left(\frac{{\sigma }_{A}}{\hat{A}}\right)}^{2}+{\left(\frac{{\sigma }_{B}}{\hat{B}}\right)}^{2}-\frac{2{\rho }_{{AB}}{\sigma }_{A}{\sigma }_{B}}{\hat{A}\hat{B}}\right)}^{\frac{1}{2}}\) where σ A and σ B are the model standard deviations for A and B , and ρ AB is the model correlation between A and B .

Definitions of heat and carbon uptake

Heat and carbon uptake is evaluated from the time integral of the air–sea heat and carbon fluxes over a particular time period. This ocean heat and carbon uptake, linking to changes in ocean heat and carbon content over that time period, may be viewed in terms of an input of anthropogenic heat and CO 2 from the atmosphere plus a feedback due to changes in the natural climate system. In this study, we do not separate these different anthropogenic and feedback contributions, as this separation requires additional model integrations; see ref. 56 for heat and ref. 15 for carbon.

Ocean heat uptake and storage

The cumulative ocean heat uptake, Q uptake in J, over a time period from time t 0 is evaluated as

where H net ( r , t ) is the surface heat flux (positive into ocean) in W m −2 from all sources (CMIP6 variable hfds), A is the ocean surface area, r and t denote space and time indices, respectively, and t 0 is a reference time period. Individual model responses are presented in Supplementary Table 1 .

The ocean heat content, Q storage in J, relative to that at a reference time at t 0 is evaluated over a volume integral

where ρ 0 is the potential density (assumed here to be a constant value of 1,024 kg m −3 ), C p is the specific heat capacity (assumed to be a constant of 4,000 J kg −1  K −1 ), θ is the ocean potential temperature, d V is the volume element and the integral is performed over the volume V .

The ocean heat storage and the surface heat flux are evaluated on the native model grid. These analyses are then binned by latitude and summed zonally to provide the area-integrated surface heat flux in equation ( 1 ) or summed both zonally and with depth to provide area-integrated estimates of the change in ocean heat storage in equation ( 2 ). There are small mismatches between the global volume integrated heat content change and the area-integrated surface heat flux due to how the datasets have been evaluated, either binned monthly or evaluated online.

The northward ocean heat transport across 30° S and 30° N is diagnosed from a heat budget on the basis of the residual from the mismatch between the change in the ocean heat storage from equation ( 2 ) and the air–sea heat flux integrated south and north of these latitudes respectively from equation ( 1 ).

Radiative diagnostics

The time-evolving top-of-the-atmosphere radiative energy budget is evaluated as

where N is the net heat input at the top of the atmosphere, ∆ F is the increase in radiative forcing and ∆ R is the radiative response, representing a change in radiative heat loss to space. All fluxes are in W m −2 and all positive values represent a planetary heat input. N is simply the net heat imbalance from the difference between the net absorbed shortwave radiation and the outgoing longwave radiation, directly obtained from monthly climate model output.

The multi-model mean of the area-integrated and time-integrated heat flux over the historical period (1851–1860 to 2005–2014) at the top of the atmosphere, 36 ± 17 × 10 22  J, is close to the area-integrated and time-integrated global surface ocean heat uptake, 36 ± 18 × 10 22  J, with a multi-model mean and standard deviation of their ratios given by 100 ± 14% (Supplementary Tables 1 and 3 ).

There is a large inter-model spread in the model means with mismatches greater than 20% for ACCESS-CM2, CESM2, CNRM-ESM2-1, HadGEM3-GC31-LL and UKESM1-0-LL; in these cases, there are large surface heat losses over the Northern Hemisphere and relatively small global surface heat uptakes. The global heat balance is improved in the future projections, reaching a multi-model mean and standard deviation of 97 ± 6% for the SSP2-4.5 scenario (Supplementary Table 3 ). Individual models generally have a misfit of less than 10% in the energy balance.

Carbon content diagnostics

The cumulative ocean carbon uptake, C uptake in gC, is estimated as

where F carbon is the air–sea flux of carbon into the ocean in gC m −2  s −1 over a surface area A and t 0 is a reference time period. Individual model responses are presented in Supplementary Table 2 .

The global ocean carbon storage, C storage in gC, relative to a reference time period at time t 0 is estimated from a volumetric integral of the dissolved inorganic carbon

where DIC is the dissolved inorganic carbon in mol C m −3 and c  = 12.01 g mol −1 is a converting factor from moles to grams of carbon and the integral is performed over the volume V . When integrated over the global ocean, the ocean carbon uptake and ocean carbon storage are equivalent, except from a small contribution from carbon flux from river run-off and the carbon burial in ocean sediments.

The northward ocean carbon transport across 30° S and 30° N is diagnosed from a carbon budget on the basis of the residual from the mismatch between the change in the ocean carbon storage from equation ( 5 ) and the air–sea carbon flux integrated south and north of these latitudes respectively from equation ( 4 ).

Data availability

The data used here are from the CMIP6 simulations performed by the various modelling groups and available from the Earth System Grid Federation at the CMIP6 archive ( https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6 , World Climate Research Programme, 2021). The processed data employed for this study is available at ref. 57 .

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6; the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output; and the Earth System Grid Federation for archiving the data and providing access. Surface heat fluxes and ocean heat storage calculations were performed using the Pangeo platform. We thank B. Booth for helpful comments. There are no competing interests. This research was supported by grants from the UK Natural Environment Research Council: NE/T007788/1 (R.G.W., P.C., V.M.R. and A.K.); NE/T010657/1 (SARDINE) (R.G.W. and V.M.R.); NE/W009501/1 (C-Streams) (R.G.W. and V.M.R.); NE/T006250/1 (P.C.); NE/T01069X/1 (SARDINE) (A.J.S.M.), NE/N018095/1 (ORCHESTRA) (A.J.S.M.), NE/V013254/1 (ENCORE) (A.J.S.M.) and NE/W004933/1 (BIOPOLE) (A.J.S.M.); and NE/S007164/1 (J.P.R.); and European Union Horizon 2020 101003536 (S.P.).

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Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK

Richard G. Williams & Vassil M. Roussenov

Polar Oceans, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK

Andrew J. S. Meijers & Jonathan P. Rosser

Marine Systems Modelling, National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK

Anna Katavouta

Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK

Paulo Ceppi

Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

Jonathan P. Rosser

Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Pietro Salvi

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Contributions

R.G.W., A.J.S.M., P.C., A.K. and V.M.R. jointly conceived the study. A.J.S.M. and J.P.R. provided the ocean heat data from CMIP6 models. P.C. and P.S. provided the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative flux data. A.K. provided and analysed the carbon data from CMIP6 models. V.M.R. analysed the thermal data and together with A.K. provided the figures and tables. R.G.W. wrote the first draft of the paper. All authors contributed to the writing and proofreading.

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Correspondence to Richard G. Williams .

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Extended data

Extended data fig. 1 historical and future time-varying contributions to global cumulative heat and carbon uptake..

Time-varying contributions of the Southern Ocean (blue line) and northern oceans (red line) for global heat uptake (left panel) and global carbon uptake (right panel): ( a ) historical period for all forcing relative to 1851 to 1860 shown from years 1900 to 2020, ( b ) the historical period for single radiative forcing from greenhouse gases; and ( c ) future shared socio-economic pathway SSP2–4.5 from years 2015 to 2100 relative to 2015 to 2024. These percentages over their last decade are consistent with those shown in Supplementary Tables 1 and 2 . Diagnostics are based on model-mean responses for: (a) 17 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat, 20 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for carbon; (b) 5 CMIP6 models with ensemble means for heat and single ensembles for carbon; and (c) 10 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat and 17 for carbon.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Historical and future cumulative heat and carbon uptake.

Combined historical and future projection for heat and carbon uptake: ( a ) Transient evolution of global (black line), northern oceans (red line) and southern oceans (blue line) for heat and carbon following the shared socio-economic pathway SSP2-4.5 scenario from 1850 to 2100; ( b ) synthesis plot for the change in the cumulative fluxes and storage of heat and carbon for 2091 to 2100 relative to 1861 to 1880, which are evaluated for the top of the atmosphere, the surface ocean and the ocean interior, and implied transports through latitudes of 30 o N and 30 o S. In (a) there is the model mean and standard deviation (shading) with northern and southern ocean domains defined as north of 30 o N and south of 30 o S respectively. Diagnostics are based on 10 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat and 17 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for carbon.

Supplementary information

Supplementary information.

Supplementary information on the CMIP diagnostics. (1) CMIP variables and (2) ensemble members for thermal diagnostics and (3) ensemble members for carbon diagnostics. Supplementary Table 1 for ocean surface heat uptake. Supplementary Table 2 for ocean surface carbon uptake. Supplementary Table 3 for top of the atmosphere heat uptake. Supplementary Fig. 1. Individual model ensembles for historical heat uptake. Supplementary Fig. 2. Historical and future changes in the cumulative fluxes and storage of heat and carbon. Supplementary Fig. 3. Standard deviations for the historical and future changes in radiative forcing and heat and carbon uptake.

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Williams, R.G., Meijers, A.J.S., Roussenov, V.M. et al. Asymmetries in the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02066-3

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02066-3

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Which multimedia element would most appeal to an audience’s emotions in a presentation about global warming? a graph showing an increase in airborne chemicals affecting the ozone layer a photo of a dried-up lake and a photo of a family swimming in the lake before it dried up an interview with a scientist explaining the risks that carbon poses to the ozone layer a video lecture of a professor discussing changes in climates around the world

a photo of a dried-up lake and a photo of a family swimming in the lake before it dried up

B. a photo of a dried-up lake and a photo of a family swimming in the lake before it dried up

This would most likely touch the viewer's emotions because of the family swimming in the lake. It would likely sadden the viewer if he/she sees that the lake once enjoyed by the family is now dried up. The family can no longer enjoy swimming in the lake. Families are often a very important part of people's lives, so people may easily get emotional about family related topics. This is related to global warming, since it can cause lakes to dry up, along with many other issues.

Here's a photo of Edge just incase.

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‘Beginning of a different kind of revolution.’ Northeastern researchers participate in the inaugural ClimaTech conference

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