what is a 2 tailed hypothesis test

Upper-tailed, Lower-tailed, Two-tailed Tests

The research or alternative hypothesis can take one of three forms. An investigator might believe that the parameter has increased, decreased or changed. For example, an investigator might hypothesize:  

The exact form of the research hypothesis depends on the investigator's belief about the parameter of interest and whether it has possibly increased, decreased or is different from the null value. The research hypothesis is set up by the investigator before any data are collected.

Rejection Region for Upper-Tailed Z Test (H : μ > μ ) with α=0.05

The decision rule is: Reject H if Z 1.645.

Rejection Region for Lower-Tailed Z Test (H 1 : μ < μ 0 ) with α =0.05

The decision rule is: Reject H 0 if Z < 1.645.

Rejection Region for Two-Tailed Z Test (H 1 : μ ≠ μ 0 ) with α =0.05

The decision rule is: Reject H 0 if Z < -1.960 or if Z > 1.960.

The complete table of critical values of Z for upper, lower and two-tailed tests can be found in the table of Z values to the right in "Other Resources."

Critical values of t for upper, lower and two-tailed tests can be found in the table of t values in "Other Resources."

• Step 4. Compute the test statistic.  

Here we compute the test statistic by substituting the observed sample data into the test statistic identified in Step 2.

• Step 5. Conclusion.  

The final conclusion is made by comparing the test statistic (which is a summary of the information observed in the sample) to the decision rule. The final conclusion will be either to reject the null hypothesis (because the sample data are very unlikely if the null hypothesis is true) or not to reject the null hypothesis (because the sample data are not very unlikely).  

If the null hypothesis is rejected, then an exact significance level is computed to describe the likelihood of observing the sample data assuming that the null hypothesis is true. The exact level of significance is called the p-value and it will be less than the chosen level of significance if we reject H 0 .

Statistical computing packages provide exact p-values as part of their standard output for hypothesis tests. In fact, when using a statistical computing package, the steps outlined about can be abbreviated. The hypotheses (step 1) should always be set up in advance of any analysis and the significance criterion should also be determined (e.g., α =0.05). Statistical computing packages will produce the test statistic (usually reporting the test statistic as t) and a p-value. The investigator can then determine statistical significance using the following: If p < α then reject H 0 .  

• Step 1. Set up hypotheses and determine level of significance

H 0 : μ = 191 H 1 : μ > 191                 α =0.05

The research hypothesis is that weights have increased, and therefore an upper tailed test is used.

• Step 2. Select the appropriate test statistic.

Because the sample size is large (n > 30) the appropriate test statistic is

• Step 3. Set up decision rule.  

In this example, we are performing an upper tailed test (H 1 : μ> 191), with a Z test statistic and selected α =0.05.   Reject H 0 if Z > 1.645.

We now substitute the sample data into the formula for the test statistic identified in Step 2.  

We reject H 0 because 2.38 > 1.645. We have statistically significant evidence at a =0.05, to show that the mean weight in men in 2006 is more than 191 pounds. Because we rejected the null hypothesis, we now approximate the p-value which is the likelihood of observing the sample data if the null hypothesis is true. An alternative definition of the p-value is the smallest level of significance where we can still reject H 0 . In this example, we observed Z=2.38 and for α=0.05, the critical value was 1.645. Because 2.38 exceeded 1.645 we rejected H 0 . In our conclusion we reported a statistically significant increase in mean weight at a 5% level of significance. Using the table of critical values for upper tailed tests, we can approximate the p-value. If we select α=0.025, the critical value is 1.96, and we still reject H 0 because 2.38 > 1.960. If we select α=0.010 the critical value is 2.326, and we still reject H 0 because 2.38 > 2.326. However, if we select α=0.005, the critical value is 2.576, and we cannot reject H 0 because 2.38 < 2.576. Therefore, the smallest α where we still reject H 0 is 0.010. This is the p-value. A statistical computing package would produce a more precise p-value which would be in between 0.005 and 0.010. Here we are approximating the p-value and would report p < 0.010.                  

In all tests of hypothesis, there are two types of errors that can be committed. The first is called a Type I error and refers to the situation where we incorrectly reject H 0 when in fact it is true. This is also called a false positive result (as we incorrectly conclude that the research hypothesis is true when in fact it is not). When we run a test of hypothesis and decide to reject H 0 (e.g., because the test statistic exceeds the critical value in an upper tailed test) then either we make a correct decision because the research hypothesis is true or we commit a Type I error. The different conclusions are summarized in the table below. Note that we will never know whether the null hypothesis is really true or false (i.e., we will never know which row of the following table reflects reality).

Table - Conclusions in Test of Hypothesis

In the first step of the hypothesis test, we select a level of significance, α, and α= P(Type I error). Because we purposely select a small value for α, we control the probability of committing a Type I error. For example, if we select α=0.05, and our test tells us to reject H 0 , then there is a 5% probability that we commit a Type I error. Most investigators are very comfortable with this and are confident when rejecting H 0 that the research hypothesis is true (as it is the more likely scenario when we reject H 0 ).

When we run a test of hypothesis and decide not to reject H 0 (e.g., because the test statistic is below the critical value in an upper tailed test) then either we make a correct decision because the null hypothesis is true or we commit a Type II error. Beta (β) represents the probability of a Type II error and is defined as follows: β=P(Type II error) = P(Do not Reject H 0 | H 0 is false). Unfortunately, we cannot choose β to be small (e.g., 0.05) to control the probability of committing a Type II error because β depends on several factors including the sample size, α, and the research hypothesis. When we do not reject H 0 , it may be very likely that we are committing a Type II error (i.e., failing to reject H 0 when in fact it is false). Therefore, when tests are run and the null hypothesis is not rejected we often make a weak concluding statement allowing for the possibility that we might be committing a Type II error. If we do not reject H 0 , we conclude that we do not have significant evidence to show that H 1 is true. We do not conclude that H 0 is true.

 The most common reason for a Type II error is a small sample size.

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Content ©2017. All Rights Reserved. Date last modified: November 6, 2017. Wayne W. LaMorte, MD, PhD, MPH

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In the previous example, you tested a research hypothesis that predicted not only that the sample mean would be different from the population mean but that it would be different in a specific direction—it would be lower. This test is called a directional or one‐tailed test because the region of rejection is entirely within one tail of the distribution.

Some hypotheses predict only that one value will be different from another, without additionally predicting which will be higher. The test of such a hypothesis is nondirectional or two‐tailed because an extreme test statistic in either tail of the distribution (positive or negative) will lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis of no difference.

Suppose that you suspect that a particular class's performance on a proficiency test is not representative of those people who have taken the test. The national mean score on the test is 74.

The research hypothesis is:

The mean score of the class on the test is not 74.

Or in notation: H a : μ ≠ 74

The null hypothesis is:

The mean score of the class on the test is 74.

In notation: H 0 : μ = 74

As in the last example, you decide to use a 5 percent probability level for the test. Both tests have a region of rejection, then, of 5 percent, or 0.05. In this example, however, the rejection region must be split between both tails of the distribution—0.025 in the upper tail and 0.025 in the lower tail—because your hypothesis specifies only a difference, not a direction, as shown in Figure 1(a). You will reject the null hypotheses of no difference if the class sample mean is either much higher or much lower than the population mean of 74. In the previous example, only a sample mean much lower than the population mean would have led to the rejection of the null hypothesis.

Figure 1.Comparison of (a) a two‐tailed test and (b) a one‐tailed test, at the same probability level (95 percent).

The decision of whether to use a one‐ or a two‐tailed test is important because a test statistic that falls in the region of rejection in a one‐tailed test may not do so in a two‐tailed test, even though both tests use the same probability level. Suppose the class sample mean in your example was 77, and its corresponding z ‐score was computed to be 1.80. Table 2 in "Statistics Tables" shows the critical z ‐scores for a probability of 0.025 in either tail to be –1.96 and 1.96. In order to reject the null hypothesis, the test statistic must be either smaller than –1.96 or greater than 1.96. It is not, so you cannot reject the null hypothesis. Refer to Figure 1(a).

Suppose, however, you had a reason to expect that the class would perform better on the proficiency test than the population, and you did a one‐tailed test instead. For this test, the rejection region of 0.05 would be entirely within the upper tail. The critical z ‐value for a probability of 0.05 in the upper tail is 1.65. (Remember that Table 2 in "Statistics Tables" gives areas of the curve below z ; so you look up the z ‐value for a probability of 0.95.) Your computed test statistic of z = 1.80 exceeds the critical value and falls in the region of rejection, so you reject the null hypothesis and say that your suspicion that the class was better than the population was supported. See Figure 1(b).

In practice, you should use a one‐tailed test only when you have good reason to expect that the difference will be in a particular direction. A two‐tailed test is more conservative than a one‐tailed test because a two‐tailed test takes a more extreme test statistic to reject the null hypothesis.

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S.3.2 hypothesis testing (p-value approach).

The P -value approach involves determining "likely" or "unlikely" by determining the probability — assuming the null hypothesis was true — of observing a more extreme test statistic in the direction of the alternative hypothesis than the one observed. If the P -value is small, say less than (or equal to) \(\alpha\), then it is "unlikely." And, if the P -value is large, say more than \(\alpha\), then it is "likely."

If the P -value is less than (or equal to) \(\alpha\), then the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. And, if the P -value is greater than \(\alpha\), then the null hypothesis is not rejected.

Specifically, the four steps involved in using the P -value approach to conducting any hypothesis test are:

• Specify the null and alternative hypotheses.
• Using the sample data and assuming the null hypothesis is true, calculate the value of the test statistic. Again, to conduct the hypothesis test for the population mean μ , we use the t -statistic \(t^*=\frac{\bar{x}-\mu}{s/\sqrt{n}}\) which follows a t -distribution with n - 1 degrees of freedom.
• Using the known distribution of the test statistic, calculate the P -value : "If the null hypothesis is true, what is the probability that we'd observe a more extreme test statistic in the direction of the alternative hypothesis than we did?" (Note how this question is equivalent to the question answered in criminal trials: "If the defendant is innocent, what is the chance that we'd observe such extreme criminal evidence?")
• Set the significance level, \(\alpha\), the probability of making a Type I error to be small — 0.01, 0.05, or 0.10. Compare the P -value to \(\alpha\). If the P -value is less than (or equal to) \(\alpha\), reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis. If the P -value is greater than \(\alpha\), do not reject the null hypothesis.

Example S.3.2.1

Mean gpa section  .

In our example concerning the mean grade point average, suppose that our random sample of n = 15 students majoring in mathematics yields a test statistic t * equaling 2.5. Since n = 15, our test statistic t * has n - 1 = 14 degrees of freedom. Also, suppose we set our significance level α at 0.05 so that we have only a 5% chance of making a Type I error.

Right Tailed

The P -value for conducting the right-tailed test H 0 : μ = 3 versus H A : μ > 3 is the probability that we would observe a test statistic greater than t * = 2.5 if the population mean \(\mu\) really were 3. Recall that probability equals the area under the probability curve. The P -value is therefore the area under a t n - 1 = t 14 curve and to the right of the test statistic t * = 2.5. It can be shown using statistical software that the P -value is 0.0127. The graph depicts this visually.

The P -value, 0.0127, tells us it is "unlikely" that we would observe such an extreme test statistic t * in the direction of H A if the null hypothesis were true. Therefore, our initial assumption that the null hypothesis is true must be incorrect. That is, since the P -value, 0.0127, is less than \(\alpha\) = 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis H 0 : μ = 3 in favor of the alternative hypothesis H A : μ > 3.

Note that we would not reject H 0 : μ = 3 in favor of H A : μ > 3 if we lowered our willingness to make a Type I error to \(\alpha\) = 0.01 instead, as the P -value, 0.0127, is then greater than \(\alpha\) = 0.01.

Left Tailed

In our example concerning the mean grade point average, suppose that our random sample of n = 15 students majoring in mathematics yields a test statistic t * instead of equaling -2.5. The P -value for conducting the left-tailed test H 0 : μ = 3 versus H A : μ < 3 is the probability that we would observe a test statistic less than t * = -2.5 if the population mean μ really were 3. The P -value is therefore the area under a t n - 1 = t 14 curve and to the left of the test statistic t* = -2.5. It can be shown using statistical software that the P -value is 0.0127. The graph depicts this visually.

The P -value, 0.0127, tells us it is "unlikely" that we would observe such an extreme test statistic t * in the direction of H A if the null hypothesis were true. Therefore, our initial assumption that the null hypothesis is true must be incorrect. That is, since the P -value, 0.0127, is less than α = 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis H 0 : μ = 3 in favor of the alternative hypothesis H A : μ < 3.

Note that we would not reject H 0 : μ = 3 in favor of H A : μ < 3 if we lowered our willingness to make a Type I error to α = 0.01 instead, as the P -value, 0.0127, is then greater than \(\alpha\) = 0.01.

In our example concerning the mean grade point average, suppose again that our random sample of n = 15 students majoring in mathematics yields a test statistic t * instead of equaling -2.5. The P -value for conducting the two-tailed test H 0 : μ = 3 versus H A : μ ≠ 3 is the probability that we would observe a test statistic less than -2.5 or greater than 2.5 if the population mean μ really was 3. That is, the two-tailed test requires taking into account the possibility that the test statistic could fall into either tail (hence the name "two-tailed" test). The P -value is, therefore, the area under a t n - 1 = t 14 curve to the left of -2.5 and to the right of 2.5. It can be shown using statistical software that the P -value is 0.0127 + 0.0127, or 0.0254. The graph depicts this visually.

Note that the P -value for a two-tailed test is always two times the P -value for either of the one-tailed tests. The P -value, 0.0254, tells us it is "unlikely" that we would observe such an extreme test statistic t * in the direction of H A if the null hypothesis were true. Therefore, our initial assumption that the null hypothesis is true must be incorrect. That is, since the P -value, 0.0254, is less than α = 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis H 0 : μ = 3 in favor of the alternative hypothesis H A : μ ≠ 3.

Note that we would not reject H 0 : μ = 3 in favor of H A : μ ≠ 3 if we lowered our willingness to make a Type I error to α = 0.01 instead, as the P -value, 0.0254, is then greater than \(\alpha\) = 0.01.

Now that we have reviewed the critical value and P -value approach procedures for each of the three possible hypotheses, let's look at three new examples — one of a right-tailed test, one of a left-tailed test, and one of a two-tailed test.

The good news is that, whenever possible, we will take advantage of the test statistics and P -values reported in statistical software, such as Minitab, to conduct our hypothesis tests in this course.

Statistics Made Easy

How to Identify a Left Tailed Test vs. a Right Tailed Test

In statistics, we use hypothesis tests to determine whether some claim about a population parameter is true or not.

Whenever we perform a hypothesis test, we always write a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis , which take the following forms:

H 0 (Null Hypothesis): Population parameter = ≤, ≥ some value

H A (Alternative Hypothesis): Population parameter <, >, ≠ some value

There are three different types of hypothesis tests:

• Two-tailed test: The alternative hypothesis contains the “≠” sign
• Left-tailed test: The alternative hypothesis contains the “<” sign
• Right-tailed test: The alternative hypothesis contains the “>” sign

Notice that we only have to look at the sign in the alternative hypothesis to determine the type of hypothesis test.

Left-tailed test: The alternative hypothesis contains the “<” sign   Right-tailed test: The alternative hypothesis contains the “>” sign

The following examples show how to identify left-tailed and right-tailed tests in practice.

Example: Left-Tailed Test

Suppose it’s assumed that the average weight of a certain widget produced at a factory is 20 grams. However, one inspector believes the true average weight is less than 20 grams.

To test this, he weighs a simple random sample of 20 widgets and obtains the following information:

• n = 20 widgets
• x = 19.8 grams
• s = 3.1 grams

He then performs a hypothesis test using the following null and alternative hypotheses:

H 0 (Null Hypothesis): μ ≥ 20 grams

H A (Alternative Hypothesis): μ < 20 grams

The test statistic is calculated as:

• t  = ( x – µ) / (s/√ n )
• t = (19.8-20) / (3.1/√ 20 )

According to the t-Distribution table , the t critical value at α = .05 and n-1 = 19 degrees of freedom is – 1.729 .

Since the test statistic is not less than this value, the inspector fails to reject the null hypothesis. He does not have sufficient evidence to say that the true mean weight of widgets produced at this factory is less than 20 grams.

Example: Right-Tailed Test

Suppose it’s assumed that the average height of a certain species of plant is 10 inches tall. However, one botanist claims the true average height is greater than 10 inches.

To test this claim, she goes out and measures the height of a simple random sample of 15 plants and obtains the following information:

• n = 15 plants
• x = 11.4 inches
• s = 2.5 inches

She then performs a hypothesis test using the following null and alternative hypotheses:

H 0 (Null Hypothesis): μ ≤ 10 inches

H A (Alternative Hypothesis): μ > 10 inches

• t = (11.4-10) / (2.5/√ 15 )

According to the t-Distribution table , the t critical value at α = .05 and n-1 = 14 degrees of freedom is 1.761 .

Since the test statistic is greater than this value, the botanist can reject the null hypothesis. She has sufficient evidence to say that the true mean height for this species of plant is greater than 10 inches.

Additional Resources

How to Read the t-Distribution Table One Sample t-test Calculator Two Sample t-test Calculator

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Hey there. My name is Zach Bobbitt. I have a Masters of Science degree in Applied Statistics and I’ve worked on machine learning algorithms for professional businesses in both healthcare and retail. I’m passionate about statistics, machine learning, and data visualization and I created Statology to be a resource for both students and teachers alike.  My goal with this site is to help you learn statistics through using simple terms, plenty of real-world examples, and helpful illustrations.

2 Replies to “How to Identify a Left Tailed Test vs. a Right Tailed Test”

This was so helpful you are a life saver. Thank you so much

Left-tailed test example, -2.885 is less than -1.729, why you mention -2.885 is “not lesss” …

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One and Two Tailed Tests

Suppose we have a null hypothesis H 0 and an alternative hypothesis H 1 . We consider the distribution given by the null hypothesis and perform a test to determine whether or not the null hypothesis should be rejected in favour of the alternative hypothesis.

There are two different types of tests that can be performed. A one-tailed test looks for an increase or decrease in the parameter whereas a two-tailed test looks for any change in the parameter (which can be any change- increase or decrease).

We can perform the test at any level (usually 1%, 5% or 10%). For example, performing the test at a 5% level means that there is a 5% chance of wrongly rejecting H 0 .

If we perform the test at the 5% level and decide to reject the null hypothesis, we say "there is significant evidence at the 5% level to suggest the hypothesis is false".

One-Tailed Test

We choose a critical region. In a one-tailed test, the critical region will have just one part (the red area below). If our sample value lies in this region, we reject the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.

Suppose we are looking for a definite decrease. Then the critical region will be to the left. Note, however, that in the one-tailed test the value of the parameter can be as high as you like.

Suppose we are given that X has a Poisson distribution and we want to carry out a hypothesis test on the mean, l, based upon a sample observation of 3.

Suppose the hypotheses are: H 0 : l = 9 H 1 : l < 9

We want to test if it is "reasonable" for the observed value of 3 to have come from a Poisson distribution with parameter 9. So what is the probability that a value as low as 3 has come from a Po(9)?

P(X < 3) = 0.0212 (this has come from a Poisson table)

The probability is less than 0.05, so there is less than a 5% chance that the value has come from a Poisson(3) distribution. We therefore reject the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative at the 5% level.

However, the probability is greater than 0.01, so we would not reject the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative at the 1% level.

Two-Tailed Test

In a two-tailed test, we are looking for either an increase or a decrease. So, for example, H 0 might be that the mean is equal to 9 (as before). This time, however, H 1 would be that the mean is not equal to 9. In this case, therefore, the critical region has two parts:

Lets test the parameter p of a Binomial distribution at the 10% level.

Suppose a coin is tossed 10 times and we get 7 heads. We want to test whether or not the coin is fair. If the coin is fair, p = 0.5 . Put this as the null hypothesis:

H 0 : p = 0.5 H 1 : p =(doesn' equal) 0.5

Now, because the test is 2-tailed, the critical region has two parts. Half of the critical region is to the right and half is to the left. So the critical region contains both the top 5% of the distribution and the bottom 5% of the distribution (since we are testing at the 10% level).

If H 0 is true, X ~ Bin(10, 0.5).

If the null hypothesis is true, what is the probability that X is 7 or above? P(X > 7) = 1 - P(X < 7) = 1 - P(X < 6) = 1 - 0.8281 = 0.1719

Is this in the critical region? No- because the probability that X is at least 7 is not less than 0.05 (5%), which is what we need it to be.

So there is not significant evidence at the 10% level to reject the null hypothesis.

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Hypothesis Testing | A Step-by-Step Guide with Easy Examples

Published on November 8, 2019 by Rebecca Bevans . Revised on June 22, 2023.

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics . It is most often used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses, that arise from theories.

There are 5 main steps in hypothesis testing:

• State your research hypothesis as a null hypothesis and alternate hypothesis (H o ) and (H a  or H 1 ).
• Collect data in a way designed to test the hypothesis.
• Perform an appropriate statistical test .
• Decide whether to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis.
• Present the findings in your results and discussion section.

Though the specific details might vary, the procedure you will use when testing a hypothesis will always follow some version of these steps.

Table of contents

Step 1: state your null and alternate hypothesis, step 2: collect data, step 3: perform a statistical test, step 4: decide whether to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis, step 5: present your findings, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about hypothesis testing.

After developing your initial research hypothesis (the prediction that you want to investigate), it is important to restate it as a null (H o ) and alternate (H a ) hypothesis so that you can test it mathematically.

The alternate hypothesis is usually your initial hypothesis that predicts a relationship between variables. The null hypothesis is a prediction of no relationship between the variables you are interested in.

• H 0 : Men are, on average, not taller than women. H a : Men are, on average, taller than women.

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For a statistical test to be valid , it is important to perform sampling and collect data in a way that is designed to test your hypothesis. If your data are not representative, then you cannot make statistical inferences about the population you are interested in.

There are a variety of statistical tests available, but they are all based on the comparison of within-group variance (how spread out the data is within a category) versus between-group variance (how different the categories are from one another).

If the between-group variance is large enough that there is little or no overlap between groups, then your statistical test will reflect that by showing a low p -value . This means it is unlikely that the differences between these groups came about by chance.

Alternatively, if there is high within-group variance and low between-group variance, then your statistical test will reflect that with a high p -value. This means it is likely that any difference you measure between groups is due to chance.

Your choice of statistical test will be based on the type of variables and the level of measurement of your collected data .

• an estimate of the difference in average height between the two groups.
• a p -value showing how likely you are to see this difference if the null hypothesis of no difference is true.

Based on the outcome of your statistical test, you will have to decide whether to reject or fail to reject your null hypothesis.

In most cases you will use the p -value generated by your statistical test to guide your decision. And in most cases, your predetermined level of significance for rejecting the null hypothesis will be 0.05 – that is, when there is a less than 5% chance that you would see these results if the null hypothesis were true.

In some cases, researchers choose a more conservative level of significance, such as 0.01 (1%). This minimizes the risk of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis ( Type I error ).

The results of hypothesis testing will be presented in the results and discussion sections of your research paper , dissertation or thesis .

In the results section you should give a brief summary of the data and a summary of the results of your statistical test (for example, the estimated difference between group means and associated p -value). In the discussion , you can discuss whether your initial hypothesis was supported by your results or not.

In the formal language of hypothesis testing, we talk about rejecting or failing to reject the null hypothesis. You will probably be asked to do this in your statistics assignments.

However, when presenting research results in academic papers we rarely talk this way. Instead, we go back to our alternate hypothesis (in this case, the hypothesis that men are on average taller than women) and state whether the result of our test did or did not support the alternate hypothesis.

If your null hypothesis was rejected, this result is interpreted as “supported the alternate hypothesis.”

These are superficial differences; you can see that they mean the same thing.

You might notice that we don’t say that we reject or fail to reject the alternate hypothesis . This is because hypothesis testing is not designed to prove or disprove anything. It is only designed to test whether a pattern we measure could have arisen spuriously, or by chance.

If we reject the null hypothesis based on our research (i.e., we find that it is unlikely that the pattern arose by chance), then we can say our test lends support to our hypothesis . But if the pattern does not pass our decision rule, meaning that it could have arisen by chance, then we say the test is inconsistent with our hypothesis .

If you want to know more about statistics , methodology , or research bias , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.

• Normal distribution
• Descriptive statistics
• Measures of central tendency
• Correlation coefficient

Methodology

• Cluster sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Types of interviews
• Cohort study
• Thematic analysis

Research bias

• Implicit bias
• Cognitive bias
• Survivorship bias
• Availability heuristic
• Nonresponse bias
• Regression to the mean

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

A hypothesis states your predictions about what your research will find. It is a tentative answer to your research question that has not yet been tested. For some research projects, you might have to write several hypotheses that address different aspects of your research question.

A hypothesis is not just a guess — it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations and statistical analysis of data).

Null and alternative hypotheses are used in statistical hypothesis testing . The null hypothesis of a test always predicts no effect or no relationship between variables, while the alternative hypothesis states your research prediction of an effect or relationship.

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11.4: One- and Two-Tailed Tests

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Learning Objectives

• Define Type I and Type II errors
• Interpret significant and non-significant differences
• Explain why the null hypothesis should not be accepted when the effect is not significant

In the James Bond case study, Mr. Bond was given \(16\) trials on which he judged whether a martini had been shaken or stirred. He was correct on \(13\) of the trials. From the binomial distribution, we know that the probability of being correct \(13\) or more times out of \(16\) if one is only guessing is \(0.0106\). Figure \(\PageIndex{1}\) shows a graph of the binomial distribution. The red bars show the values greater than or equal to \(13\). As you can see in the figure, the probabilities are calculated for the upper tail of the distribution. A probability calculated in only one tail of the distribution is called a "one-tailed probability."

Binomial Calculator

A slightly different question can be asked of the data: "What is the probability of getting a result as extreme or more extreme than the one observed?" Since the chance expectation is \(8/16\), a result of \(3/16\) is equally as extreme as \(13/16\). Thus, to calculate this probability, we would consider both tails of the distribution. Since the binomial distribution is symmetric when \(\pi =0.5\), this probability is exactly double the probability of \(0.0106\) computed previously. Therefore, \(p = 0.0212\). A probability calculated in both tails of a distribution is called a "two-tailed probability" (see Figure \(\PageIndex{2}\)).

Should the one-tailed or the two-tailed probability be used to assess Mr. Bond's performance? That depends on the way the question is posed. If we are asking whether Mr. Bond can tell the difference between shaken or stirred martinis, then we would conclude he could if he performed either much better than chance or much worse than chance. If he performed much worse than chance, we would conclude that he can tell the difference, but he does not know which is which. Therefore, since we are going to reject the null hypothesis if Mr. Bond does either very well or very poorly, we will use a two-tailed probability.

On the other hand, if our question is whether Mr. Bond is better than chance at determining whether a martini is shaken or stirred, we would use a one-tailed probability. What would the one-tailed probability be if Mr. Bond were correct on only \(3\) of the \(16\) trials? Since the one-tailed probability is the probability of the right-hand tail, it would be the probability of getting \(3\) or more correct out of \(16\). This is a very high probability and the null hypothesis would not be rejected.

The null hypothesis for the two-tailed test is \(\pi =0.5\). By contrast, the null hypothesis for the one-tailed test is \(\pi \leq 0.5\). Accordingly, we reject the two-tailed hypothesis if the sample proportion deviates greatly from \(0.5\) in either direction. The one-tailed hypothesis is rejected only if the sample proportion is much greater than \(0.5\). The alternative hypothesis in the two-tailed test is \(\pi \neq 0.5\). In the one-tailed test it is \(\pi > 0.5\).

You should always decide whether you are going to use a one-tailed or a two-tailed probability before looking at the data. Statistical tests that compute one-tailed probabilities are called one-tailed tests; those that compute two-tailed probabilities are called two-tailed tests. Two-tailed tests are much more common than one-tailed tests in scientific research because an outcome signifying that something other than chance is operating is usually worth noting. One-tailed tests are appropriate when it is not important to distinguish between no effect and an effect in the unexpected direction. For example, consider an experiment designed to test the efficacy of a treatment for the common cold. The researcher would only be interested in whether the treatment was better than a placebo control. It would not be worth distinguishing between the case in which the treatment was worse than a placebo and the case in which it was the same because in both cases the drug would be worthless.

Some have argued that a one-tailed test is justified whenever the researcher predicts the direction of an effect. The problem with this argument is that if the effect comes out strongly in the non-predicted direction, the researcher is not justified in concluding that the effect is not zero. Since this is unrealistic, one-tailed tests are usually viewed skeptically if justified on this basis alone.

• Key Differences

Know the Differences & Comparisons

Difference Between One-tailed and Two-tailed Test

To test the hypothesis, test statistics is required, which follows a known distribution. In a test, there are two divisions of probability density curve, i.e. region of acceptance and region of rejection. the region of rejection is called as a critical region .

In the field of research and experiments, it pays to know the difference between one-tailed and two-tailed test, as they are quite commonly used in the process.

Content: One-tailed Test Vs Two-tailed Test

Comparison chart.

Definition of One-tailed Test

One-tailed test alludes to the significance test in which the region of rejection appears on one end of the sampling distribution. It represents that the estimated test parameter is greater or less than the critical value. When the sample tested falls in the region of rejection, i.e. either left or right side, as the case may be, it leads to the acceptance of alternative hypothesis rather than the null hypothesis. It is primarily applied in chi-square distribution; that ascertains the goodness of fit.

In this statistical hypothesis test, all the critical region, related to α , is placed in any one of the two tails. One-tailed test can be:

• Left-tailed test : When the population parameter is believed to be lower than the assumed one, the hypothesis test carried out is the left-tailed test.
• Right-tailed test : When the population parameter is supposed to be greater than the assumed one, the statistical test conducted is a right-tailed test.

Definition of Two-tailed Test

The two-tailed test is described as a hypothesis test, in which the region of rejection or say the critical area is on both the ends of the normal distribution. It determines whether the sample tested falls within or outside a certain range of values. Therefore, an alternative hypothesis is accepted in place of the null hypothesis, if the calculated value falls in either of the two tails of the probability distribution.

In this test, α is bifurcated into two equal parts, placing half on each side, i.e. it considers the possibility of both positive and negative effects. It is performed to see, whether the estimated parameter is either above or below the assumed parameter, so the extreme values, work as evidence against the null hypothesis.

Key Differences Between One-tailed and Two-tailed Test

The fundamental differences between one-tailed and two-tailed test, is explained below in points:

• One-tailed test, as the name suggest is the statistical hypothesis test, in which the alternative hypothesis has a single end. On the other hand, two-tailed test implies the hypothesis test; wherein the alternative hypothesis has dual ends.
• In the one-tailed test, the alternative hypothesis is represented directionally. Conversely, the two-tailed test is a non-directional hypothesis test.
• In a one-tailed test, the region of rejection is either on the left or right of the sampling distribution. On the contrary, the region of rejection is on both the sides of the sampling distribution.
• A one-tailed test is used to ascertain if there is any relationship between variables in a single direction, i.e. left or right. As against this, the two-tailed test is used to identify whether or not there is any relationship between variables in either direction.
• In a one-tailed test, the test parameter calculated is more or less than the critical value. Unlike, two-tailed test, the result obtained is within or outside critical value.
• When an alternative hypothesis has ‘≠’ sign, then a two-tailed test is performed. In contrast, when an alternative hypothesis has ‘> or <‘ sign, then one-tailed test is carried out.

To sum up, we can say that the basic difference between one-tailed and two-tailed test lies in the direction, i.e. in case the research hypothesis entails the direction of interrelation or difference, then one-tailed test is applied, but if the research hypothesis does not signify the direction of interaction or difference, we use two-tailed test.

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Swati Aggarwal says

April 24, 2018 at 11:47 am

Very Informative and specifically summarised. thank you.

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July 23, 2020 at 11:48 pm

This website is very useful and easy to understand for Statistics methods and concepts.

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January 11, 2023 at 5:13 am

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An Introduction to Statistics: Understanding Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Errors

Priya ranganathan.

1 Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain, Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

2 Department of Surgical Oncology, Tata Memorial Centre, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

The second article in this series on biostatistics covers the concepts of sample, population, research hypotheses and statistical errors.

How to cite this article

Ranganathan P, Pramesh CS. An Introduction to Statistics: Understanding Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Errors. Indian J Crit Care Med 2019;23(Suppl 3):S230–S231.

Two papers quoted in this issue of the Indian Journal of Critical Care Medicine report. The results of studies aim to prove that a new intervention is better than (superior to) an existing treatment. In the ABLE study, the investigators wanted to show that transfusion of fresh red blood cells would be superior to standard-issue red cells in reducing 90-day mortality in ICU patients. 1 The PROPPR study was designed to prove that transfusion of a lower ratio of plasma and platelets to red cells would be superior to a higher ratio in decreasing 24-hour and 30-day mortality in critically ill patients. 2 These studies are known as superiority studies (as opposed to noninferiority or equivalence studies which will be discussed in a subsequent article).

SAMPLE VERSUS POPULATION

A sample represents a group of participants selected from the entire population. Since studies cannot be carried out on entire populations, researchers choose samples, which are representative of the population. This is similar to walking into a grocery store and examining a few grains of rice or wheat before purchasing an entire bag; we assume that the few grains that we select (the sample) are representative of the entire sack of grains (the population).

The results of the study are then extrapolated to generate inferences about the population. We do this using a process known as hypothesis testing. This means that the results of the study may not always be identical to the results we would expect to find in the population; i.e., there is the possibility that the study results may be erroneous.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING

A clinical trial begins with an assumption or belief, and then proceeds to either prove or disprove this assumption. In statistical terms, this belief or assumption is known as a hypothesis. Counterintuitively, what the researcher believes in (or is trying to prove) is called the “alternate” hypothesis, and the opposite is called the “null” hypothesis; every study has a null hypothesis and an alternate hypothesis. For superiority studies, the alternate hypothesis states that one treatment (usually the new or experimental treatment) is superior to the other; the null hypothesis states that there is no difference between the treatments (the treatments are equal). For example, in the ABLE study, we start by stating the null hypothesis—there is no difference in mortality between groups receiving fresh RBCs and standard-issue RBCs. We then state the alternate hypothesis—There is a difference between groups receiving fresh RBCs and standard-issue RBCs. It is important to note that we have stated that the groups are different, without specifying which group will be better than the other. This is known as a two-tailed hypothesis and it allows us to test for superiority on either side (using a two-sided test). This is because, when we start a study, we are not 100% certain that the new treatment can only be better than the standard treatment—it could be worse, and if it is so, the study should pick it up as well. One tailed hypothesis and one-sided statistical testing is done for non-inferiority studies, which will be discussed in a subsequent paper in this series.

STATISTICAL ERRORS

There are two possibilities to consider when interpreting the results of a superiority study. The first possibility is that there is truly no difference between the treatments but the study finds that they are different. This is called a Type-1 error or false-positive error or alpha error. This means falsely rejecting the null hypothesis.

The second possibility is that there is a difference between the treatments and the study does not pick up this difference. This is called a Type 2 error or false-negative error or beta error. This means falsely accepting the null hypothesis.

The power of the study is the ability to detect a difference between groups and is the converse of the beta error; i.e., power = 1-beta error. Alpha and beta errors are finalized when the protocol is written and form the basis for sample size calculation for the study. In an ideal world, we would not like any error in the results of our study; however, we would need to do the study in the entire population (infinite sample size) to be able to get a 0% alpha and beta error. These two errors enable us to do studies with realistic sample sizes, with the compromise that there is a small possibility that the results may not always reflect the truth. The basis for this will be discussed in a subsequent paper in this series dealing with sample size calculation.

Conventionally, type 1 or alpha error is set at 5%. This means, that at the end of the study, if there is a difference between groups, we want to be 95% certain that this is a true difference and allow only a 5% probability that this difference has occurred by chance (false positive). Type 2 or beta error is usually set between 10% and 20%; therefore, the power of the study is 90% or 80%. This means that if there is a difference between groups, we want to be 80% (or 90%) certain that the study will detect that difference. For example, in the ABLE study, sample size was calculated with a type 1 error of 5% (two-sided) and power of 90% (type 2 error of 10%) (1).

Table 1 gives a summary of the two types of statistical errors with an example

Statistical errors

In the next article in this series, we will look at the meaning and interpretation of ‘ p ’ value and confidence intervals for hypothesis testing.

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Conflict of interest: None

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Difference Between One-Tailed and Two-Tailed Tests

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One and Two-Tailed Tests are ways to identify the relationship between the statistical variables. For checking the relationship between variables in a single direction (Left or Right direction), we use a one-tailed test. A two-tailed test is used to check whether the relations between variables are in any direction or not.

One-Tailed Test

A one-tailed test is based on a uni-directional hypothesis where the area of rejection is on only one side of the sampling distribution. It determines whether a particular population parameter is larger or smaller than the predefined parameter. It uses one single critical value to test the data.

Alternative Hypothesis ( H 1​):

Test Statistic: Depending on the type of test and the distribution, the test statistic is computed ( Z -score for normal distribution).

Decision Rule: If the test statistic falls in the critical region, reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.

Example: Effect of participants of students in coding competition on their fear level.

• H0: There is no important effect of students in coding competition on their fear level. 

The main intention is to check the decreased fear level when students participate in a coding competition.

Two-Tailed Test

A two-tailed test is also called a nondirectional hypothesis. For checking whether the sample is greater or less than a range of values, we use the two-tailed. It is used for null hypothesis testing.

Test Statistic: Compute the test statistic as appropriate for the distribution ( Z -score for normal distribution).

Decision Rule: If the test statistic falls in either tail of the distribution’s critical region, reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.

Example: Effect of new bill pass on the loan of farmers. 

• H0: There is no significant effect of the new bill passed on loans of farmers.

New bill passes can affect in both ways either increase or decrease the loan of farmers.

Difference Between One and Two-Tailed Test:

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Left Tailed Test or Right Tailed Test ? How to Decide

Hypothesis testing basics: one tail or two, left tailed test or right tailed test example, how to run a right tailed test.

In a hypothesis test , you have to decide if a claim is true or not. Before you can figure out if you have a left tailed test or right tailed test, you have to make sure you have a single tail to begin with. A tail in hypothesis testing refers to the tail at either end of a distribution curve.

Basic Hypothesis Testing Steps

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• Decide if you have a one-tailed test or a two-tailed test ( How to decide if a hypothesis test is a one-tailed test or a two-tailed test ). If you have a two-tailed test, you don’t need to worry about whether it’s a left tailed or right tailed test (because it’s both!).
• Find out if it’s a left tailed test or right tailed test (see below).

If you can sketch a graph, you can figure out which tail is in your test. Back to Top

Example question: You are testing the hypothesis that the drop out rate is more than 75% (>75%). Is this a left-tailed test or a right-tailed test?

Step 1: Write your null hypothesis statement and your alternate hypothesis statement. This step is key to drawing the right graph, so if you aren’t sure about writing a hypothesis statement, see: How to State the Null Hypothesis.

Step 2: Draw a normal distribution curve.

Step 3: Shade in the related area under the normal distribution curve . The area under a curve represents 100%, so shade the area accordingly. The number line goes from left to right, so the first 25% is on the left and the 75% mark would be at the left tail.

The yellow area in this picture illustrates the area greater than 75%. Left Tailed Test or Right Tailed Test? From this diagram you can clearly see that it is a right-tailed test, because the shaded area is on the right .

That’s it!

Hypothesis tests can be three different types:

• Right tailed test.
• Left tailed test.
• Two tailed test .

The right tailed test and the left tailed test are examples of one-tailed tests . They are called “one tailed” tests because the rejection region (the area where you would reject the null hypothesis ) is only in one tail. The two tailed test is called a two tailed test because the rejection region can be in either tail.

Here’s what the right tailed test looks like on a graph:

What is a Right Tailed Test?

A right tailed test (sometimes called an upper test) is where your hypothesis statement contains a greater than (>) symbol. In other words, the inequality points to the right. For example, you might be comparing the life of batteries before and after a manufacturing change. If you want to know if the battery life is greater than the original (let’s say 90 hours), your hypothesis statements might be: Null hypothesis : No change or less than (H 0 ≤ 90). Alternate hypothesis : Battery life has increased (H 1 ) > 90.

The important factor here is that the alternate hypothesis (H 1 ) determines if you have a right tailed test, not the null hypothesis .

Right Tailed Test Example.

A high-end computer manufacturer sets the retail cost of their computers based in the manufacturing cost, which is $1800. However, the company thinks there are hidden costs and that the average cost to manufacture the computers is actually much more. The company randomly selects 40 computers from its facilities and finds that the mean cost to produce a computer is $1950 with a standard deviation of $500. Run a hypothesis test to see if this thought is true.

Step 1: Write your hypothesis statement (see: How to state the null hypothesis ). H 0 : μ ≤ 1800 H 1 : μ > 1800

Step 3: Choose an alpha level . No alpha is mentioned in the question, so use the standard (0.05). 1 – 0.05 = .95 Look up that value (.95) in the middle of the z-table. The area corresponds to a z-value of 1.645. That means you would reject the null hypothesis if your test statistic is greater than 1.645.*

1.897 is greater than 1.645, so you can reject the null hypothesis .

* Not sure how I got 1.645? The left hand half of the curve is 50%, so you look up 45% in the “right of the mean” table on this site (50% + 45% = 95%).

This z-table shows the area to the right of the mean , so you’re actually looking up .45, not .95. That’s because half of the area (.5) is not actually showing on the table.

Back to Top

Left Tailed Test or Right Tailed Test: References

Dodge, Y. (2008). The Concise Encyclopedia of Statistics . Springer. Gonick, L. (1993). The Cartoon Guide to Statistics . HarperPerennial. “Klein, G. (2013). The Cartoon Introduction to Statistics. Hill & Wamg. Kotz, S.; et al., eds. (2006), Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences , Wiley. Wheelan, C. (2014). Naked Statistics . W. W. Norton & Company

P-Value And Statistical Significance: What It Is & Why It Matters

Saul Mcleod, PhD

Editor-in-Chief for Simply Psychology

BSc (Hons) Psychology, MRes, PhD, University of Manchester

Saul Mcleod, PhD., is a qualified psychology teacher with over 18 years of experience in further and higher education. He has been published in peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of Clinical Psychology.

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Associate Editor for Simply Psychology

BSc (Hons) Psychology, MSc Psychology of Education

Olivia Guy-Evans is a writer and associate editor for Simply Psychology. She has previously worked in healthcare and educational sectors.

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The p-value in statistics quantifies the evidence against a null hypothesis. A low p-value suggests data is inconsistent with the null, potentially favoring an alternative hypothesis. Common significance thresholds are 0.05 or 0.01.

Hypothesis testing

When you perform a statistical test, a p-value helps you determine the significance of your results in relation to the null hypothesis.

The null hypothesis (H0) states no relationship exists between the two variables being studied (one variable does not affect the other). It states the results are due to chance and are not significant in supporting the idea being investigated. Thus, the null hypothesis assumes that whatever you try to prove did not happen.

The alternative hypothesis (Ha or H1) is the one you would believe if the null hypothesis is concluded to be untrue.

The alternative hypothesis states that the independent variable affected the dependent variable, and the results are significant in supporting the theory being investigated (i.e., the results are not due to random chance).

What a p-value tells you

A p-value, or probability value, is a number describing how likely it is that your data would have occurred by random chance (i.e., that the null hypothesis is true).

The level of statistical significance is often expressed as a p-value between 0 and 1.

The smaller the p -value, the less likely the results occurred by random chance, and the stronger the evidence that you should reject the null hypothesis.

Remember, a p-value doesn’t tell you if the null hypothesis is true or false. It just tells you how likely you’d see the data you observed (or more extreme data) if the null hypothesis was true. It’s a piece of evidence, not a definitive proof.

Example: Test Statistic and p-Value

Suppose you’re conducting a study to determine whether a new drug has an effect on pain relief compared to a placebo. If the new drug has no impact, your test statistic will be close to the one predicted by the null hypothesis (no difference between the drug and placebo groups), and the resulting p-value will be close to 1. It may not be precisely 1 because real-world variations may exist. Conversely, if the new drug indeed reduces pain significantly, your test statistic will diverge further from what’s expected under the null hypothesis, and the p-value will decrease. The p-value will never reach zero because there’s always a slim possibility, though highly improbable, that the observed results occurred by random chance.

P-value interpretation

The significance level (alpha) is a set probability threshold (often 0.05), while the p-value is the probability you calculate based on your study or analysis.

A p-value less than or equal to your significance level (typically ≤ 0.05) is statistically significant.

A p-value less than or equal to a predetermined significance level (often 0.05 or 0.01) indicates a statistically significant result, meaning the observed data provide strong evidence against the null hypothesis.

This suggests the effect under study likely represents a real relationship rather than just random chance.

For instance, if you set α = 0.05, you would reject the null hypothesis if your p -value ≤ 0.05. 

It indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, as there is less than a 5% probability the null is correct (and the results are random).

Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.

Example: Statistical Significance

Upon analyzing the pain relief effects of the new drug compared to the placebo, the computed p-value is less than 0.01, which falls well below the predetermined alpha value of 0.05. Consequently, you conclude that there is a statistically significant difference in pain relief between the new drug and the placebo.

What does a p-value of 0.001 mean?

A p-value of 0.001 is highly statistically significant beyond the commonly used 0.05 threshold. It indicates strong evidence of a real effect or difference, rather than just random variation.

Specifically, a p-value of 0.001 means there is only a 0.1% chance of obtaining a result at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming the null hypothesis is correct.

Such a small p-value provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis, leading to rejecting the null in favor of the alternative hypothesis.

A p-value more than the significance level (typically p > 0.05) is not statistically significant and indicates strong evidence for the null hypothesis.

This means we retain the null hypothesis and reject the alternative hypothesis. You should note that you cannot accept the null hypothesis; we can only reject it or fail to reject it.

Note : when the p-value is above your threshold of significance,  it does not mean that there is a 95% probability that the alternative hypothesis is true.

One-Tailed Test

Two-Tailed Test

How do you calculate the p-value ?

Most statistical software packages like R, SPSS, and others automatically calculate your p-value. This is the easiest and most common way.

Online resources and tables are available to estimate the p-value based on your test statistic and degrees of freedom.

These tables help you understand how often you would expect to see your test statistic under the null hypothesis.

Understanding the Statistical Test:

Different statistical tests are designed to answer specific research questions or hypotheses. Each test has its own underlying assumptions and characteristics.

For example, you might use a t-test to compare means, a chi-squared test for categorical data, or a correlation test to measure the strength of a relationship between variables.

Be aware that the number of independent variables you include in your analysis can influence the magnitude of the test statistic needed to produce the same p-value.

This factor is particularly important to consider when comparing results across different analyses.

Example: Choosing a Statistical Test

If you’re comparing the effectiveness of just two different drugs in pain relief, a two-sample t-test is a suitable choice for comparing these two groups. However, when you’re examining the impact of three or more drugs, it’s more appropriate to employ an Analysis of Variance ( ANOVA) . Utilizing multiple pairwise comparisons in such cases can lead to artificially low p-values and an overestimation of the significance of differences between the drug groups.

How to report

A statistically significant result cannot prove that a research hypothesis is correct (which implies 100% certainty).

Instead, we may state our results “provide support for” or “give evidence for” our research hypothesis (as there is still a slight probability that the results occurred by chance and the null hypothesis was correct – e.g., less than 5%).

Example: Reporting the results

In our comparison of the pain relief effects of the new drug and the placebo, we observed that participants in the drug group experienced a significant reduction in pain ( M = 3.5; SD = 0.8) compared to those in the placebo group ( M = 5.2; SD  = 0.7), resulting in an average difference of 1.7 points on the pain scale (t(98) = -9.36; p < 0.001).

The 6th edition of the APA style manual (American Psychological Association, 2010) states the following on the topic of reporting p-values:

“When reporting p values, report exact p values (e.g., p = .031) to two or three decimal places. However, report p values less than .001 as p < .001.

The tradition of reporting p values in the form p < .10, p < .05, p < .01, and so forth, was appropriate in a time when only limited tables of critical values were available.” (p. 114)

• Do not use 0 before the decimal point for the statistical value p as it cannot equal 1. In other words, write p = .001 instead of p = 0.001.
• Please pay attention to issues of italics ( p is always italicized) and spacing (either side of the = sign).
• p = .000 (as outputted by some statistical packages such as SPSS) is impossible and should be written as p < .001.
• The opposite of significant is “nonsignificant,” not “insignificant.”

Why is the p -value not enough?

A lower p-value  is sometimes interpreted as meaning there is a stronger relationship between two variables.

However, statistical significance means that it is unlikely that the null hypothesis is true (less than 5%).

To understand the strength of the difference between the two groups (control vs. experimental) a researcher needs to calculate the effect size .

When do you reject the null hypothesis?

In statistical hypothesis testing, you reject the null hypothesis when the p-value is less than or equal to the significance level (α) you set before conducting your test. The significance level is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. Commonly used significance levels are 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10.

Remember, rejecting the null hypothesis doesn’t prove the alternative hypothesis; it just suggests that the alternative hypothesis may be plausible given the observed data.

The p -value is conditional upon the null hypothesis being true but is unrelated to the truth or falsity of the alternative hypothesis.

What does p-value of 0.05 mean?

If your p-value is less than or equal to 0.05 (the significance level), you would conclude that your result is statistically significant. This means the evidence is strong enough to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.

Are all p-values below 0.05 considered statistically significant?

No, not all p-values below 0.05 are considered statistically significant. The threshold of 0.05 is commonly used, but it’s just a convention. Statistical significance depends on factors like the study design, sample size, and the magnitude of the observed effect.

A p-value below 0.05 means there is evidence against the null hypothesis, suggesting a real effect. However, it’s essential to consider the context and other factors when interpreting results.

Researchers also look at effect size and confidence intervals to determine the practical significance and reliability of findings.

How does sample size affect the interpretation of p-values?

Sample size can impact the interpretation of p-values. A larger sample size provides more reliable and precise estimates of the population, leading to narrower confidence intervals.

With a larger sample, even small differences between groups or effects can become statistically significant, yielding lower p-values. In contrast, smaller sample sizes may not have enough statistical power to detect smaller effects, resulting in higher p-values.

Therefore, a larger sample size increases the chances of finding statistically significant results when there is a genuine effect, making the findings more trustworthy and robust.

Can a non-significant p-value indicate that there is no effect or difference in the data?

No, a non-significant p-value does not necessarily indicate that there is no effect or difference in the data. It means that the observed data do not provide strong enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

There could still be a real effect or difference, but it might be smaller or more variable than the study was able to detect.

Other factors like sample size, study design, and measurement precision can influence the p-value. It’s important to consider the entire body of evidence and not rely solely on p-values when interpreting research findings.

Can P values be exactly zero?

While a p-value can be extremely small, it cannot technically be absolute zero. When a p-value is reported as p = 0.000, the actual p-value is too small for the software to display. This is often interpreted as strong evidence against the null hypothesis. For p values less than 0.001, report as p < .001

Further Information

• P-values and significance tests (Kahn Academy)
• Hypothesis testing and p-values (Kahn Academy)
• Wasserstein, R. L., Schirm, A. L., & Lazar, N. A. (2019). Moving to a world beyond “ p “< 0.05”.
• Criticism of using the “ p “< 0.05”.
• Publication manual of the American Psychological Association
• Statistics for Psychology Book Download

Bland, J. M., & Altman, D. G. (1994). One and two sided tests of significance: Authors’ reply.  BMJ: British Medical Journal ,  309 (6958), 874.

Goodman, S. N., & Royall, R. (1988). Evidence and scientific research.  American Journal of Public Health ,  78 (12), 1568-1574.

Goodman, S. (2008, July). A dirty dozen: twelve p-value misconceptions . In  Seminars in hematology  (Vol. 45, No. 3, pp. 135-140). WB Saunders.

Lang, J. M., Rothman, K. J., & Cann, C. I. (1998). That confounded P-value.  Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) ,  9 (1), 7-8.

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How to Perform T-Tests in Python (One- and Two-Sample)

• February 12, 2024 January 13, 2024

In this post, you’ll learn how to perform t-tests in Python using the popular SciPy library . T-tests are used to test for statistical significance and can be hugely advantageous when working with smaller sample sizes.

By the end of this tutorial, you’ll have learned the following:

• What the different t-tests are and when they should be applied
• How to perform a one-sample t-test and a two-sample t-test in Python
• How to interpret the results from your statistical tests

Table of Contents

Understanding the T-Test

The t-test, or often referred to as the student’s t-test , dates back to the early 20th century. An Irish statistician working for Guinness Brewery, William Sealy Gosset, introduced the concept. Because the brewery was working with small sample sizes and was under strict orders of confidentiality, Gosset published his findings under the pseudonym “Student”. His seminal work, “The Probable Error of a Mean,” laid the groundwork for what we now know as Student’s t-test.

This leads us to one of the primary benefits of the t-test: the t-test is able to make reliable inferences about a population using a small sample size . Let’s explore how this works by discussing the theory behind the t-test in the following section.

Understanding the Student’s T-Test

Statistical tests are used to make assumptions about some population parameters. For example, it lets us test whether or not the average test score for any given group of students is 70%. The T-Test works in two different ways:

• The one-sample t-test allows us to test whether or not the population mean is equal to some value
• The two-sample t-test allows us to test whether or not two population means are equal

Let’s explore these in a little more depth.

Understanding the One-Sample T-Test

The one-sample t-test is used to test the null hypothesis that the population mean inferred from a sample is equal to some given value. It can be described as below:

There are actually three different alternative hypotheses:

• Two-tailed : The population mean is not equal to some given value
• Left-tailed : The population mean is less than some given value
• Right-tailed : The population mean is greater than some given value

We can use the following formula to calculate our test statistic:

• x:  the sample mean
• μ 0 :  a hypothesized population mean
• s:  the sample standard deviation
• n:  the sample size

We then need to calculate the p-value using degrees of freedom equal to n – 1. If the p-value is less than your chosen significance level, we can reject the null hypothesis and say that the means differ.

Understanding the Two-Sample T-Test

The two-sample t-test is used to test whether two population means are equal (or if they differ in a significant way). In this case, the null hypothesis assumes that the two population means are equal.

When we sample two different groups, we are almost guaranteed that their sample means will differ. But the t-test allows us to test whether or not this difference is different in a statistically significant way.

Similar to the one-sample t-test, there are three different alternative hypotheses:

• Two-tailed : The two means are not equal
• Left-tailed : Population mean #1 is less than population mean #2
• Right-tailed : Population mean #1 is greater than population mean #2

The formula for the two-sample t-test can be written as:

• X 1​ and X 2​ are the sample means of the two groups.
• s 1 and s 2​ are the sample variances of the two groups.
• n 1​ and n 2​ are the sample sizes of the two groups.

We then need to calculate the p-value using degrees of freedom equal to (n 1 +n 2 -1). If the p-value is less than your chosen significance level, we can reject the null hypothesis and say that the means differ.

Requirements for the Student T-Test

Both types of t-tests follow a key set of assumptions, including:

• Observations should be independent of one another
• The data should be relatively normally distributed
• The samples should have approximately equal variances (this only applies to the two-sample t-test)
• The samples were collected using random sampling

It’s easy to test for these assumptions using Python (and I have included links to tutorials covering how to do this). Let’s take a look at example walkthroughs of how to conduct both of these tests in Python.

Perform a One-Sample T-Test in Python

In this section, you’ll learn how to conduct a one-sample t-test in Python. Suppose you are a teacher and have just given a test. You know that the population mean for this test is 85% and you want to see whether the score of the class is significantly different from this population mean.

Let’s start by importing our required function, ttest_1samp() from SciPy and defining our data:

In the code block above, we first imported our required library. We then defined our sample as a list of values and defined our population mean as its own variable.

We can now pass these values into the function, as shown below:

The function returns a test statistic and the corresponding p-value. We can print these values out using f-strings to simplify the labeling , as shown above.

Finally, we can write a simple if-else statement to evaluate whether or not our sample mean is significantly different from the population mean:

We can see that by running this if-else statement, that our test indicates that there is no significant difference in the exam scores.

In order to calculate the different one-sample t-test alternative hypotheses, we can use the alternative= parameter:

• alternative='two-sided' is the default value, checking for a two-sided alternative hypothesis
• alternative='less' checks whether the provided mean is less than the population mean
• alternative='greater' checks whether the provided mean is greater than the population mean

Now that you have a strong understanding of how to perform a one-sample t-test, let’s dive into the exciting world of two-sample t-tests!

Perform a Two-Sample T-Test in Python

A two-sample t-test is used to test whether the means of two samples are equal. The test requires that both samples be normally distributed, have similar variances, and be independent of one another.

Imagine that we want to compare the test scores of two different classes. This is the perfect example of when to use a t-test. Let’s begin by running a two-tailed test, which only evaluates whether or not the two means are equal. It begins with the null hypothesis, which states that the two means are equal.

Let’s take a look at how we can run a two-tailed t-test in Python:

We can see that the ttest_ind() function returns both a test statistic and a p-value. We can run a simple if-else statement to check whether or not we can reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis:

We can see that there is a significant difference between the two sets of scores. However, the two-tailed test doesn’t tell us in which direction.

In order to do this, we need to use a right- or left-tailed two-sample t-test. To do this in SciPy, we use the alternative= parameter. By default, this is set to 'two-sided' . However, we can modify this to either 'less' or 'greater' , if we want to evaluate whether or not the mean for one sample is less than or greater than another.

Let’s see how we can check if the mean of class 2 is significantly higher than that of class 1:

Because our p-value is less than our defined value of 0.05, we can say that the mean of class 2 is higher with statistical significance.

In conclusion, this comprehensive guide has equipped you with the knowledge and practical skills to perform t-tests in Python using the SciPy library. T-tests are invaluable tools for assessing statistical significance, particularly when working with smaller sample sizes.

Throughout this tutorial, you’ve gained insights into:

• The different types of t-tests and their applications.
• How to conduct one-sample and two-sample t-tests in Python.
• Interpretation of results obtained from statistical tests.

Remember that t-tests come with certain assumptions, and it’s crucial to validate them before applying these tests to your data. Python provides tools to check these assumptions, ensuring the robustness and reliability of your statistical analyses.

To learn more about these functions, check out the official documentation for the one-sample t-test and for the two-sample t-test in SciPy.

Nik Piepenbreier

Nik is the author of datagy.io and has over a decade of experience working with data analytics, data science, and Python. He specializes in teaching developers how to use Python for data science using hands-on tutorials. View Author posts

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What Is a One-Tailed Test?

• Determining Significance
• One-Tailed Test FAQs
• Corporate Finance
• Financial Analysis

One-Tailed Test Explained: Definition and Example

Investopedia / Xiaojie Liu

A one-tailed test is a statistical test in which the critical area of a distribution is one-sided so that it is either greater than or less than a certain value, but not both. If the sample being tested falls into the one-sided critical area, the alternative hypothesis will be accepted instead of the null hypothesis.

Financial analysts use the one-tailed test to test an investment or portfolio hypothesis.

Key Takeaways

• A one-tailed test is a statistical hypothesis test set up to show that the sample mean would be higher or lower than the population mean, but not both.
• When using a one-tailed test, the analyst is testing for the possibility of the relationship in one direction of interest and completely disregarding the possibility of a relationship in another direction.
• Before running a one-tailed test, the analyst must set up a null and alternative hypothesis and establish a probability value (p-value).

A basic concept in inferential statistics is hypothesis testing . Hypothesis testing is run to determine whether a claim is true or not, given a population parameter. A test that is conducted to show whether the mean of the sample is significantly greater than and significantly less than the mean of a population is considered a two-tailed test . When the testing is set up to show that the sample mean would be higher or lower than the population mean, it is referred to as a one-tailed test. The one-tailed test gets its name from testing the area under one of the tails (sides) of a normal distribution , although the test can be used in other non-normal distributions.

Before the one-tailed test can be performed, null and alternative hypotheses must be established. A null hypothesis is a claim that the researcher hopes to reject. An alternative hypothesis is the claim supported by rejecting the null hypothesis.

A one-tailed test is also known as a directional hypothesis or directional test.

Example of the One-Tailed Test

Let's say an analyst wants to prove that a portfolio manager outperformed the S&P 500 index in a given year by 16.91%. They may set up the null (H 0 ) and alternative (H a ) hypotheses as:

H 0 : μ ≤ 16.91

H a : μ > 16.91

The null hypothesis is the measurement that the analyst hopes to reject. The alternative hypothesis is the claim made by the analyst that the portfolio manager performed better than the S&P 500. If the outcome of the one-tailed test results in rejecting the null, the alternative hypothesis will be supported. On the other hand, if the outcome of the test fails to reject the null, the analyst may carry out further analysis and investigation into the portfolio manager’s performance.

The region of rejection is on only one side of the sampling distribution in a one-tailed test. To determine how the portfolio’s return on investment compares to the market index, the analyst must run an upper-tailed significance test in which extreme values fall in the upper tail (right side) of the normal distribution curve. The one-tailed test conducted in the upper or right tail area of the curve will show the analyst how much higher the portfolio return is than the index return and whether the difference is significant.

1%, 5% or 10%

The most common significance levels (p-values) used in a one-tailed test.

Determining Significance in a One-Tailed Test

To determine how significant the difference in returns is, a significance level must be specified. The significance level is almost always represented by the letter p, which stands for probability. The level of significance is the probability of incorrectly concluding that the null hypothesis is false. The significance value used in a one-tailed test is either 1%, 5%, or 10%, although any other probability measurement can be used at the discretion of the analyst or statistician. The probability value is calculated with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. The lower the p-value , the stronger the evidence that the null hypothesis is false.

If the resulting p-value is less than 5%, the difference between both observations is statistically significant, and the null hypothesis is rejected. Following our example above, if the p-value = 0.03, or 3%, then the analyst can be 97% confident that the portfolio returns did not equal or fall below the return of the market for the year. They will, therefore, reject H 0  and support the claim that the portfolio manager outperformed the index. The probability calculated in only one tail of a distribution is half the probability of a two-tailed distribution if similar measurements were tested using both hypothesis testing tools.

When using a one-tailed test, the analyst is testing for the possibility of the relationship in one direction of interest and completely disregarding the possibility of a relationship in another direction. Using our example above, the analyst is interested in whether a portfolio’s return is greater than the market’s. In this case, they do not need to statistically account for a situation in which the portfolio manager underperformed the S&P 500 index. For this reason, a one-tailed test is only appropriate when it is not important to test the outcome at the other end of a distribution.

How Do You Determine If It Is a One-Tailed or Two-Tailed Test?

A one-tailed test looks for an increase or decrease in a parameter. A two-tailed test looks for change, which could be a decrease or an increase.

What Is a One-Tailed T Test Used for?

A one-tailed T-test checks for the possibility of a one-direction relationship but does not consider a directional relationship in another direction.

When Should a Two-Tailed Test Be Used?

You would use a two-tailed test when you want to test your hypothesis in both directions.

University of Southern California. " FAQ: What Are the Differences Between One-Tailed and Two-Tailed Tests? "

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Squareholder Value

What is a p-value?

I'll answer that question, explain a statistical test you might not have heard of, and introduce you to my new obsession: bridge..

After leaving my last job, I started playing a lot of contract bridge (or “contact bridge” as it’s called in my family, as games tend to get heated). I recently participated in a regional bridge tournament. I was inspired to write this post about p -values when I found myself in what I thought was a very unlikely situation during a bridge session.

A crash course in bridge

I could talk bridge all day, but I know it’s not for everyone. Given that, I’ll try to minimize the background for this article. Bridge is a trick-taking card game played with a standard deck of 52 cards. There are four players seated around the table: North, East, South, and West. North and South are partners, and East and West are partners. Each hand is preceded by an auction in which the players bid on 1) how many tricks they think they can win, and 2) which suit is the trump suit. For example, if North-South wins the auction with a bid of 4 hearts, then they claim that they will take 6 + 4 = 10 tricks with hearts as trump. (You add 6 because there are 52/4 = 13 total tricks, so it doesn’t make sense to proclaim that you’ll take fewer than half.)

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The weird thing about bridge (well, one weird thing) is that only three of the four players play each hand. One person from the team that wins the auction plays the hand. That person is called the “declarer.” 1 The declarer’s partner is called the “dummy,” and the dummy’s hand is placed face up after the opening lead by the defense. The declarer then plays both hands, concealing their own. All eyes are on you as the declarer, so that is the most exciting and stressful position to be in. For concreteness, suppose that North is the declarer. This means that South, North’s partner, is the dummy, while East and West play defense. Defense always plays the first card, and they lead into the dummy. Therefore, East would lead in this case. As soon as East plays their first card, South reveals their hand, and then play continues clockwise around the compass (with North playing both North’s and South’s hands). After all 13 tricks are played, you count how many tricks the declarer took and award points according to how they fared against their bid.

My unlikely experience

So what does this have to do with p -values? As I said above, bridge is most exciting when you are the declarer. In one of my games during the recent tournament, my team played 24 hands, and I noticed that I was starting to get bored. It turns out that I was the declarer on only two of the 24 hands! Two out of 24 is 8.3%, which seemed like a very small percentage to me. Since North, East, South, and West are just names, you expect each player should declare 25% of the time in the long run. This made me wonder if chance was to blame, or rather if something about the bidding habits of the people at the table skewed the results.

Statistics gives us a way of understanding how unlikely experiences like my bridge game are. Let’s assume that North really should play 25% of hands. In that case, the proportion of hands that North plays out of N = 24 random deals is approximately normally distributed. This is a consequence of the central limit theorem . The mean of that normal distribution is π = .25, and the standard deviation is

Knowing this, we can compute the z -score of the sample proportion p = 2/24 = 8.3%:

This means that the observed proportion of 2/24 hands is almost two standard deviations below the mean of 6/24 hands. The next step is to convert this z -score into a p -value . The p -value is the area under the standard normal (i.e., bell-shaped) curve to the left of z = -1.889. You can compute it Excel with the function NORM.S.DIST(-1.889, 1). The 1 means that you want the cumulative probability (i.e., area) and not the height of the curve at that point. Entering that function returns a p-value of about .0297 (cf., picture below).

The next question is, how do we interpret the p -value? Before getting to that, it’s best to explain the context in which p -values most often arise. Hypothesis testing is the branch of statistical inference wherein you collect samples from a population to test an assumption about the population. In this case, the null hypothesis is that the true proportion of hands with North as declarer is 25%. The alternative hypothesis—based on our observation—is that North actually declares less than 25% of the time. A good real-life example is a clinical trial for a drug. In that case, you have a treatment and control group. The null hypothesis is that there is no difference in outcomes (measured however you want) between those two groups. The alternative hypothesis is that the treatment group fares better than the control group. In either case, the p -value is interpreted as follows:

Assuming that the null hypothesis is true, there is a p% chance that a random sample of this size would be as extreme as this sample.

Applied to the bridge case: Assuming that North declares on 25% of hands, there is a 2.97% chance that North would declare two or fewer times in a game with 24 hands. The 24 hands part is critical; the standard deviation of the sampling distribution depends on N , the number of hands. The more hands you play, the more unlikely it would be for North to declare in fewer than 8.3% of hands. In a hypothesis test, you typically have some cutoff—called α—that you compare to the p- value. For example, if α = .01, then you would say that a p -value less than 1% is just too unlikely to believe. The only possible conclusion is that your assumption—the null hypothesis—must be false. Depending on the context, α can be .001, .01, .05, or sometimes .1.

There are a few common misconceptions about the p -value. The first is that it depends on α. As we saw, you can define the p -value without any reference to α, which is simply your line in the sand for what constitutes “beyond a reasonable doubt.” Another common misconception is that the p -value is the probability that the null hypothesis is true. That’s not right. All the p -value tells you is the probability of observing your sample, if the null hypothesis is true . Finally, some people claim that the smaller the p -value, the stronger the effect (in a treatment/control scenario). This is also not true. The p -value just measures how unlikely it is to observe a sample. Suppose you knew that a drug reduced someone’s cholesterol by an average of 15 mg/dL. If you repeatedly ran controlled experiments, you could make the p -value as small as you want by increasing the sizes of the treatment and control groups (thereby reducing variability). However, the magnitude of the effect will always be 15 mg/dL, on average, regardless of the p -value.

Another perspective: goodness of fit

With a p -value of under 3%, it’s tempting to argue that declaring on two out of 24 hands is too rare to attribute to chance. 2 However, I didn’t share all the details of my game. Of the 24 hands, I (North) declared twice, East five times, South eight times, and West nine times. As discussed, each player expects to be declarer on approximately 25% of hands. There’s another statistical test— χ -square goodness of fit —which can be used to analyze the distribution of categorical variables. This test works by comparing the observed counts of each possible value of a variable to the expected counts (6 each for North, South, East, and West in our case). To avoid positive and negative differences offsetting, each error is squared. The squared differences are then divided by the expected count and added together. (This is not unlike linear regression, which I discussed in this previous post .) The result is a single number called the χ -square statistic. This number is always positive, and it captures how far away the distribution of a variable is from what is expected. Looking at the table below, we see that χ -square = 5.0 in this case.

To compute a p -value, we need to know what type of distribution χ -square follows. The central limit theorem says that, for each player, the square root of Column F in the above picture converges to the standard normal normal as N increases. 3 This makes χ -square the sum of squares of normally distributed variables. Shockingly, such sums follow a neat distribution called the χ -square distribution (hence the name of the statistic/test). Once you know that, then the calculation of the p -value and its interpretation are exactly the same. To calculate the p-value, you can type

in Excel. 5 is the value of the χ -square statistic. 3 is the degrees of freedom (number of players - 1) and 1 means cumulative, as with NORM.S.DIST. We have to subtract the value from 1 because now the extreme side is the right tail, not the left tail.

Which test is right?

Notice that the p -value from the χ -square test is much larger: 17.2%. This number is large enough that we would not be able to reject the null hypothesis, which is that each player plays 25% of the hands. So, on the one hand, the first test says that it is very unlikely (about 3 out of 100) that North would play zero, one, or two out of 24 hands. On the other hand, the χ -square test says that an arrangement as uneven as (N, E, S, W) = (2, 5, 8, 9) is not all that rare: it would happen more than one in six times that you play 24 hands.

This begs the question, which test is right? The short answer is that they’re both right. They’re just answering different questions. In the first case, I zoomed in on the experience of North. From North’s perspective, it’s true that it’s very rare to declare two or fewer times out of 24 hands. However, declaring is a zero-sum game (well, I guess a 24-sum game): if any of the other seats declare more times than expected, that means someone has to declare fewer times than expected. The χ -square test considers all four hands together. When you do that, the arrangement (2, 8, 9, 5) is seen to be not that pathological. In fact, I played six times during the tournament, so the chances are good that I would see some declarer distribution with p = .172 at least once. Reflecting on the tournament now, I can’t remember the number of times I declared in any of the other sessions. You could argue that I engaged in “ p hacking” by focusing on the one game in which I declared only twice. p hacking is a dishonest (yet common) approach to statistical analysis in which you take multiple samples until you get a p -value that supports the conclusion you want to draw.

To close, I want to clarify one thing about the χ -square statistic. It reduces the deviation from the expected counts for all players into a single number. For example, (3, 3, 9, 9) has a higher χ -square value of 6.0 (thus, a lower p -value), even though no one declared two or fewer times. If you wanted to get the exact probability of someone declaring two or fewer times, you would apply the multinomial distribution , which models the different ways you can add up four numbers to get 24. This is tricky, though, because it’s difficult to systematically list the arrangements (N, E, S, W) that have a minimum value of 0, 1, or 2 in one of the hands. 4 Instead, I simulated 500 sessions of 24 hands and noted 1) the percentage of sessions that each player played two or fewer hands, and 2) the percentage of sessions that each of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 was the minimum number of hands declared by any player. (The minimum can’t be greater than 6 because the average is 6.) As you see below, the minimum number of hands played was two or fewer in 16.8% of the 500 sessions, which is slightly less than the χ -square test. I re-ran this experiment another ~30 times, and the average was closer to 15.6%.

That’s all for today. Thank you for reading and indulging my bridge obsession. Please subscribe and share if you enjoyed this. Most importantly, please let me know if you’re looking for a bridge partner.

The declarer is the first person on the declaring team to mention the ultimate trump suit in the auction. For example, if North opens the bidding with 1 heart, they would play the hand if North-South ends up winning the auction with hearts as the trump suit. This is true even if South makes the final bid of 4 hearts.

Some possible explanations: the hands aren’t random, our bidding or our opponents bidding is unusual, etc.

Briefly, if you convert the counts to frequencies, you get a binomial distribution, and then it’s easier to see how to apply CLT. If you want more rigor, don’t read blogs. (Just kidding… here’s a proof .)

The “ stars and bars ” method tells you that there are 2,925 (= 27 choose 3) ways that N-E-S-W can share declarer in 24 hands. There are probably several hundred that have at least one 0, 1, or 2 in one of the positions. I was not up to the task of enumerating them.

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