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Global economic growth and economic integration suffered major setbacks in 2020–21 owing to the Coronavirus crisis and the huge strains it put on people, companies and governments all around the world. Trade restrictions and global supply*-chain disruptions in particular became recurrent challenges during the pandemic. But even before the crisis, trade tensions and constraints to economic integration threatened to limit many countries’ abilities to reap the benefits of globalization. Against this background, the IMF Economic Review (IMFER) commissioned a special issue focused on the theme of “Economic Integration and Growth.” While the accompanying conference, which was to have taken place in Rabat, Morocco, with the cooperation of Bank Al-Maghrib, could not be held, we are delighted to introduce the articles in this volume, summarized below.
The first paper, “Infrastructure Investment and Labor Monopsony Power” by Wyatt J Brooks (Arizona State University), Joseph P Kaboski (University of Notre Dame and NBER), Illenin Kondo (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis), Yao Amber Li (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), and Wei Qian (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics), examines how transportation integration affects local labor markets. Exploiting variation induced by the construction of the “Golden Quadrilateral” road system in India, they demonstrate manufacturing employers in markets closer to the highway system that have reduced market power relative to employers in markets that are less connected. Importantly, they can separately identify changes in both monopsony power and output markups, and find highway construction is pro-competitive in both input and output markets. The net effect is to increase the labor share of income by approximately 2 percentage points.
The second paper, “Trade Integration, Global Value Chains, and Capital Accumulation” by Michael Sposi (Southern Methodist University), Kei-Mu Yi (University of Houston), and Jing Zhang (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago), presents a framework to study the dynamic impact of global trade and fragmentation of production that had been accompanied by significant income convergence in many emerging economies. The paper builds a dynamic two-country model featuring sequential, multi-stage production, and capital accumulation. As trade costs decline over time, global-value-chain (GVC) trade expands across countries, particularly more in the faster growing country, consistent with the empirical pattern. Via Heckscher-Ohlin forces, GVC trade can generate back-and-forth feedback between comparative advantage and capital accumulation (growth). Moreover, GVC trade increases both steady-state and dynamic gains from trade. At the current juncture, the model can help us assess the consequences that reversing those globalization trends might have on income and welfare.
The third paper in the volume, “Entry and exit of informal firms and development” by Brian McCaig (Wilfrid Laurier University) and Nina Pavcnik (Dartmouth College), provides new insights into the economics of non-farm informal businesses in developing countries. Non-farm informal businesses comprise the majority of the firm distribution in developing countries. The paper documents a number of novel stylized facts about entry and exit of informal, non-farm firms using a nationally representative panel dataset over 15 years and across regions with varying levels of local economic development in Vietnam. First, informal businesses exhibit annual rates of entry and exit of around 15-19%. Entry and exit rates are similar and highly correlated at a point in time, within industries, and within regions, and they both decline over time and across space with economic development. Second, although market selection influences which firms survive, entry and exit has little net effect on aggregate (revenue) productivity or hiring of workers outside the household. Third, the large overlap in revenue of entering and exiting informal businesses and the high correlation between entry and exit rates are related to the education of owners and their economic activities before and after operating an informal business. Informal business owners are less educated on average than wage workers in the formal sector, but more educated than agricultural workers. The transitions in and out of operating an informal business reflect the underlying structure of economic activities of the working age population, with education gaps also playing a role. The most common transition into non-farm businesses is to and from self-employment in agriculture. The likelihood of this transition declines with economic development, highlighting the role of net entry from agriculture into informal non-farm businesses in structural change.
Greater integration of women into the labor force is perhaps one of the most powerful levers of growth in many emerging markets. This issue concludes with a Policy Corner article, titled “Social Norms as a Barrier to Women's Employment in Developing Countries” by Seema Jayachandran (Northwestern University). The article starts with a discussion of the relationship between economic growth and female employment, pointing out that a significant amount of variation is unexplained by economic factors, leaving an important role for norms in determining labor force participation. The article examines evidence of the role of several gender-related social norms, and discusses evaluations of interventions designed to overcome such barriers, both by helping women work around a norm, as well as by changing norms. Jayachandran concludes that both approaches can be successful, and that implementing supportive policies could substantially narrow gender gaps in the labor market.
We hope that you will enjoy reading this issue. The topics covered are of fundamental importance to the functioning of the global economics system, and speak particularly to the challenges and opportunities present in many emerging markets. Taken together, these papers present novel empirical evidence on labor market integration, the creation and destruction of informal firms, as well as new insights on the causes and consequences of the increasing dispersion of global value chains, and sound policy guidance on increasing female labor force participation.
We thank all the authors for their valuable contributions, and the referees for making the papers even better. Finally, we thank Tracey Lookadoo for ensuring a smooth process during challenging times, and Emine Boz, Andrei Levchenko, Prachi Mishra, and Linda Tesar, along with the IMFER for giving us the opportunity to create this issue.
Shawn Cole and Silvana Tenreyo
Guest Editors, IMF Economic Review
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Cole, S., Tenreyo, S. Economic Integration and Growth. IMF Econ Rev 69 , 467–469 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-021-00145-5
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The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, provides the nation with a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system.
August 25, 2006
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Thirtieth Annual Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
When geographers study the earth and its features, distance is one of the basic measures they use to describe the patterns they observe. Distance is an elastic concept, however. The physical distance along a great circle from Wausau, Wisconsin to Wuhan, China is fixed at 7,020 miles. But to an economist, the distance from Wausau to Wuhan can also be expressed in other metrics, such as the cost of shipping goods between the two cities, the time it takes for a message to travel those 7,020 miles, and the cost of sending and receiving the message. Economically relevant distances between Wausau and Wuhan may also depend on what trade economists refer to as the "width of the border," which reflects the extra costs of economic exchange imposed by factors such as tariff and nontariff barriers, as well as costs arising from differences in language, culture, legal traditions, and political systems.
One of the defining characteristics of the world in which we now live is that, by most economically relevant measures, distances are shrinking rapidly. The shrinking globe has been a major source of the powerful wave of worldwide economic integration and increased economic interdependence that we are currently experiencing. The causes and implications of declining economic distances and increased economic integration are, of course, the subject of this conference.
The pace of global economic change in recent decades has been breathtaking indeed, and the full implications of these developments for all aspects of our lives will not be known for many years. History may provide some guidance, however. The process of global economic integration has been going on for thousands of years, and the sources and consequences of this integration have often borne at least a qualitative resemblance to those associated with the current episode. In my remarks today I will briefly review some past episodes of global economic integration, identify some common themes, and then put forward some ways in which I see the current episode as similar to and different from the past. In doing so, I hope to provide some background and context for the important discussions that we will be having over the next few days.
A Short History of Global Economic Integration As I just noted, the economic integration of widely separated regions is hardly a new phenomenon. Two thousand years ago, the Romans unified their far-flung empire through an extensive transportation network and a common language, legal system, and currency. One historian recently observed that "a citizen of the empire traveling from Britain to the Euphrates in the mid-second century CE would have found in virtually every town along the journey foods, goods, landscapes, buildings, institutions, laws, entertainment, and sacred elements not dissimilar to those in his own community." (Hitchner, 2003, p. 398). This unification promoted trade and economic development.
A millennium and a half later, at the end of the fifteenth century, the voyages of Columbus, Vasco da Gama, and other explorers initiated a period of trade over even vaster distances. These voyages of discovery were made possible by advances in European ship technology and navigation, including improvements in the compass, in the rudder, and in sail design. The sea lanes opened by these voyages facilitated a thriving intercontinental trade--although the high costs of and the risks associated with long voyages tended to limit trade to a relatively small set of commodities of high value relative to their weight and bulk, such as sugar, tobacco, spices, tea, silk, and precious metals. Much of this trade ultimately came under the control of the trading companies created by the English and the Dutch. These state-sanctioned monopolies enjoyed--and aggressively protected--high markups and profits. Influenced by the prevailing mercantilist view of trade as a zero-sum game, European nation-states competed to dominate lucrative markets, a competition that sometimes spilled over into military conflict.
"But foreign trade, which brings from Calcutta and India and such places wares like costly silks, articles of gold, and spices--which minister only to ostentation but serve no useful purpose, and which drain away the money of the land and people--would not be permitted if we had proper government and princes... God has cast us Germans off to such an extent that we have to fling our gold and silver into foreign lands and make the whole world rich, while we ourselves remain beggars." (James, 2001, p. 8)
The structure of trade during the post-Napoleonic period followed a "core-periphery" pattern. Capital-rich Western European countries, particularly Britain, were the center, or core, of the trading system and the international monetary system. Countries in which natural resources and land were relatively abundant formed the periphery. Manufactured goods, financial capital, and labor tended to flow from the core to the periphery, with natural resources and agricultural products flowing from the periphery to the core. The composition of the core and the periphery remained fairly stable, with one important exception being the United States, which, over the course of the nineteenth century, made the transition from the periphery to the core. The share of manufactured goods in U.S. exports rose from less than 30 percent in 1840 to 60 percent in 1913, and the United States became a net exporter of financial capital beginning in the late 1890s. 1
For the most part, government policies during this era fostered openness to trade, capital mobility, and migration. Britain unilaterally repealed its tariffs on grains (the so-called corn laws) in 1846, and a series of bilateral treaties subsequently dismantled many barriers to trade in Europe. A growing appreciation for the principle of comparative advantage, as forcefully articulated by Adam Smith and David Ricardo, may have made governments more receptive to the view that international trade is not a zero-sum game but can be beneficial to all participants.
That said, domestic opposition to free trade eventually intensified, as cheap grain from the periphery put downward pressure on the incomes of landowners in the core. Beginning in the late 1870s, many European countries raised tariffs, with Britain being a prominent exception. Britain did respond to protectionist pressures by passing legislation that required that goods be stamped with their country of origin. This step provided additional grist for trade protesters, however, as the author of one British anti-free-trade pamphlet in the 1890s lamented that even the pencil he used to write his protest was marked "made in Germany" (James, 2001, p. 15). In the United States, tariffs on manufactures were raised in the 1860s to relatively high levels, where they remained until well into the twentieth century. Despite these increased barriers to the importation of goods, the United States was remarkably open to immigration throughout this period.
Unfortunately, the international economic integration achieved during the nineteenth century was largely unraveled in the twentieth by two world wars and the Great Depression. After World War II, the major powers undertook the difficult tasks of rebuilding both the physical infrastructure and the international trade and monetary systems. The industrial core--now including an emergent Japan as well as the United States and Western Europe--ultimately succeeded in restoring a substantial degree of economic integration, though decades passed before trade as a share of global output reached pre-World War I levels.
One manifestation of this re-integration was the rise of so-called intra-industry trade. Researchers in the late-1960s and the 1970s noted that an increasing share of global trade was taking place between countries with similar resource endowments, trading similar types of goods--mainly manufactured products traded among industrial countries. 2 Unlike international trade in the nineteenth century, these flows could not be readily explained by the perspectives of Ricardo or of the Swedish economists Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin that emphasized national differences in endowments of natural resources or factors of production. In influential work, Paul Krugman and others have since argued that intra-industry trade can be attributed to firms' efforts to exploit economies of scale, coupled with a taste for variety by purchasers.
Postwar economic re-integration was supported by several factors, both technological and political. Technological advances further reduced the costs of transportation and communication, as the air freight fleet was converted from propeller to jet and intermodal shipping techniques (including containerization) became common. Telephone communication expanded, and digital electronic computing came into use. Taken together, these advances allowed an ever-broadening set of products to be traded internationally. In the policy sphere, tariff barriers--which had been dramatically increased during the Great Depression--were lowered, with many of these reductions negotiated within the multilateral framework provided by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Globalization was, to some extent, also supported by geopolitical considerations, as economic integration among the Western market economies became viewed as part of the strategy for waging the Cold War. However, although trade expanded significantly in the early post-World War II period, many countries--recalling the exchange-rate and financial crises of the 1930s--adopted regulations aimed at limiting the mobility of financial capital across national borders.
Several conclusions emerge from this brief historical review. Perhaps the clearest conclusion is that new technologies that reduce the costs of transportation and communication have been a major factor supporting global economic integration. Of course, technological advance is itself affected by the economic incentives for inventive activity; these incentives increase with the size of the market, creating something of a virtuous circle. For example, in the nineteenth century, the high potential return to improving communications between Europe and the United States prompted intensive work to better understand electricity and to improve telegraph technology--efforts that together helped make the trans-Atlantic cable possible.
A second conclusion from history is that national policy choices may be critical determinants of the extent of international economic integration. Britain's embrace of free trade and free capital flows helped to catalyze international integration in the nineteenth century. Fifteenth-century China provides an opposing example. In the early decades of that century, the Chinese sailed great fleets to the ports of Asia and East Africa, including ships much larger than those that the Europeans were to use later in the voyages of discovery. These expeditions apparently had only limited economic impact, however. Ultimately, internal political struggles led to a curtailment of further Chinese exploration (Findlay, 1992). Evidently, in this case, different choices by political leaders might have led to very different historical outcomes.
A third observation is that social dislocation, and consequently often social resistance, may result when economies become more open. An important source of dislocation is that--as the principle of comparative advantage suggests--the expansion of trade opportunities tends to change the mix of goods that each country produces and the relative returns to capital and labor. The resulting shifts in the structure of production impose costs on workers and business owners in some industries and thus create a constituency that opposes the process of economic integration. More broadly, increased economic interdependence may also engender opposition by stimulating social or cultural change, or by being perceived as benefiting some groups much more than others.
The Current Episode of Global Economic Integration How does the current wave of global economic integration compare with previous episodes? In a number of ways, the remarkable economic changes that we observe today are being driven by the same basic forces and are having similar effects as in the past. Perhaps most important, technological advances continue to play an important role in facilitating global integration. For example, dramatic improvements in supply-chain management, made possible by advances in communication and computer technologies, have significantly reduced the costs of coordinating production among globally distributed suppliers.
Another common feature of the contemporary economic landscape and the experience of the past is the continued broadening of the range of products that are viewed as tradable. In part, this broadening simply reflects the wider range of goods available today--high-tech consumer goods, for example--as well as ongoing declines in transportation costs. Particularly striking, however, is the extent to which information and communication technologies now facilitate active international trade in a wide range of services, from call center operations to sophisticated financial, legal, medical, and engineering services.
The critical role of government policy in supporting, or at least permitting, global economic integration, is a third similarity between the past and the present. Progress in trade liberalization has continued in recent decades--though not always at a steady pace, as the recent Doha Round negotiations demonstrate. Moreover, the institutional framework supporting global trade, most importantly the World Trade Organization, has expanded and strengthened over time. Regional frameworks and agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and the European Union's "single market," have also promoted trade. Government restrictions on international capital flows have generally declined, and the "soft infrastructure" supporting those flows--for example, legal frameworks and accounting rules--have improved, in part through international cooperation.
In yet another parallel with the past, however, social and political opposition to rapid economic integration has also emerged. As in the past, much of this opposition is driven by the distributional impact of changes in the pattern of production, but other concerns have been expressed as well--for example, about the effects of global economic integration on the environment or on the poorest countries.
What, then, is new about the current episode? Each observer will have his or her own perspective, but, to me, four differences between the current wave of global economic integration and past episodes seem most important. First, the scale and pace of the current episode is unprecedented. For example, in recent years, global merchandise exports have been above 20 percent of world gross domestic product, compared with about 8 percent in 1913 and less than 15 percent as recently as 1990; and international financial flows have expanded even more quickly. 3 But these data understate the magnitude of the change that we are now experiencing. The emergence of China, India, and the former communist-bloc countries implies that the greater part of the earth's population is now engaged, at least potentially, in the global economy. There are no historical antecedents for this development. Columbus's voyage to the New World ultimately led to enormous economic change, of course, but the full integration of the New and the Old Worlds took centuries. In contrast, the economic opening of China, which began in earnest less than three decades ago, is proceeding rapidly and, if anything, seems to be accelerating.
Second, the traditional distinction between the core and the periphery is becoming increasingly less relevant, as the mature industrial economies and the emerging-market economies become more integrated and interdependent. Notably, the nineteenth-century pattern, in which the core exported manufactures to the periphery in exchange for commodities, no longer holds, as an increasing share of world manufacturing capacity is now found in emerging markets. An even more striking aspect of the breakdown of the core-periphery paradigm is the direction of capital flows: In the nineteenth century, the country at the center of the world's economy, Great Britain, ran current account surpluses and exported financial capital to the periphery. Today, the world's largest economy, that of the United States, runs a current-account deficit, financed to a substantial extent by capital exports from emerging-market nations.
Third, production processes are becoming geographically fragmented to an unprecedented degree. 4 Rather than producing goods in a single process in a single location, firms are increasingly breaking the production process into discrete steps and performing each step in whatever location allows them to minimize costs. For example, the U.S. chip producer AMD locates most of its research and development in California; produces in Texas, Germany, and Japan; does final processing and testing in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and China; and then sells to markets around the globe. To be sure, international production chains are not entirely new: In 1911, Henry Ford opened his company's first overseas factory in Manchester, England, to be closer to a growing source of demand. The factory produced bodies for the Model A automobile, but imported the chassis and mechanical parts from the United States for assembly in Manchester. Although examples like this one illustrate the historical continuity of the process of economic integration, today the geographical extension of production processes is far more advanced and pervasive than ever before. As an aside, some interesting economic questions are raised by the fact that in some cases international production chains are managed almost entirely within a single multinational corporation (roughly 40 percent of U.S. merchandise trade is classified as intra-firm) and in others they are built through arm's-length transactions among unrelated firms. But the empirical evidence in both cases suggests that substantial productivity gains can often be achieved through the development of global supply chains. 5
The final item on my list of what is new about the current episode is that international capital markets have become substantially more mature. Although the net capital flows of a century ago, measured relative to global output, are comparable to those of the present, gross flows today are much larger. Moreover, capital flows now take many more forms than in the past: In the nineteenth century, international portfolio investments were concentrated in the finance of infrastructure projects (such as the American railroads) and in the purchase of government debt. Today, international investors hold an array of debt instruments, equities, and derivatives, including claims on a broad range of sectors. Flows of foreign direct investment are also much larger relative to output than they were fifty or a hundred years ago. 6 As I noted earlier, the increase in capital flows owes much to capital-market liberalization and factors such as the greater standardization of accounting practices as well as to technological advances.
Conclusion By almost any economically relevant metric, distances have shrunk considerably in recent decades. As a consequence, economically speaking, Wausau and Wuhan are today closer and more interdependent than ever before. Economic and technological changes are likely to shrink effective distances still further in coming years, creating the potential for continued improvements in productivity and living standards and for a reduction in global poverty.
Further progress in global economic integration should not be taken for granted, however. Geopolitical concerns, including international tensions and the risks of terrorism, already constrain the pace of worldwide economic integration and may do so even more in the future. And, as in the past, the social and political opposition to openness can be strong. Although this opposition has many sources, I have suggested that much of it arises because changes in the patterns of production are likely to threaten the livelihoods of some workers and the profits of some firms, even when these changes lead to greater productivity and output overall. The natural reaction of those so affected is to resist change, for example, by seeking the passage of protectionist measures. The challenge for policymakers is to ensure that the benefits of global economic integration are sufficiently widely shared--for example, by helping displaced workers get the necessary training to take advantage of new opportunities--that a consensus for welfare-enhancing change can be obtained. Building such a consensus may be far from easy, at both the national and the global levels. However, the effort is well worth making, as the potential benefits of increased global economic integration are large indeed.
Bloom, Nick, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen (2006). "It Ain't What You Do It's the Way That You Do I.T.--Investigating the Productivity Miracle Using the Overseas Activities of U.S. Multinationals," unpublished paper, Centre for Economic Performance, March.
Bordo, Michael, Barry Eichengreen, and Douglas Irwin (1999). "Is Globalization Today Really Different than Globalization a Hundred Years Ago?" NBER Working Paper No. 7195, June.
Corrado, Carol, Paul Lengermann, and Larry Slifman (2005). "The Contribution of MNCs to U.S. Productivity Growth, 1977-2000," unpublished paper, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July.
Criscuolo, Chiara, and Ralf Martin (2005). "Multinationals and U.S. Productivity Leadership: Evidence from Great Britain," Centre for Economic Performance, Discussion Paper No. 672, January.
Doms, Mark E. and J. Bradford Jensen (1998). "Comparing Wages, Skills, and Productivity between Domestically and Foreign-Owned Manufacturing Establishments in the United States," in R.E. Baldwin, R.E. Lipsey, and J. David Richardson, eds., Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting , NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, vol. 59, Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press, pp. 235-58.
Findlay, Ronald (1992). "The Roots of Divergence: Western Economic History in Comparative Perspective," AEA Papers and Proceedings , vol. 82:2, May, pp. 158-61.
Findlay, Ronald, and Kevin O'Rourke (2002). "Commodity Market Integration 1500-2000," Centre for Economic Policy Research, Discussion Paper No. 3125, January.
Grubel, Herbert, and P.J. Lloyd (1975). Intra-Industry Trade , New York, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Hanson, Gordon, Raymond Mataloni, and Matthew Slaughter (2005). "Vertical Production Networks in Multinational Firms," Review of Economics and Statistics , vol. 87:4, November.
Historical Statistics of the United States: Earliest Times to Present (Millennial Edition) (2006). New York, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Hitchner, Bruce (2003). "Roman Empire," in Joel Mokyr ed., The Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History , Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, vol. 4, pp. 397-400.
James, Harold (2001) The End of Globalization: Lessons from the Great Depression , Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.
Kurz, Christopher (2006). "Outstanding Outsourcers: A Firm- and Plant-Level Analysis of Production Sharing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-04, Federal Reserve Board, March.
Maddison, Angus (2001). The World Economy: A Millenial Perspective , Paris, France: OECD Development Centre.
Standage, Tom (1998). The Victorian Internet , New York, New York: Walker Publishing Company.
1. Data are from Historical Statistics of the United States (2006). Return to text
2. See, for example, Grubel and Lloyd (1975). Return to text
3. Maddison (2001) and International Monetary Fund data. Return to text
4. See, for example, Hanson, Mataloni, and Slaughter (2005). Return to text
5. Some of the key empirical papers in this literature are Doms and Jensen (1998); Criscuolo and Martin (2005); Corrado, Lengermann, and Slifman (2005); Bloom, Sadun, and Van Reenen (2006), and Kurz (2006). Return to text
6. See, for example, Bordo, Eichengreen, and Irwin (1999). Return to text
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Let me again welcome you to the New York Fed and to this conference. We are especially pleased to have so many of our European colleagues here today. You have spent the morning discussing some of the important economic and financial issues facing the United States and Europe. But this is essentially a conference on integration. I want to step back and make some broader observations about the process of global economic integration and the package of policies that need to accompany greater openness.
We are, as the IMF noted last week in its latest World Economic Outlook, in an unusually prolonged and widespread global expansion—the strongest in more than three decades. Economic integration and technological change have played a crucial part in driving this expansion and sustaining it in the face of recent shocks and some daunting longer-term economic policy challenges.
Yet there remains substantial ambivalence about the benefits of globalization. To many, the costs seem more compelling than the benefits. The sources of this ambivalence are varied. Some are familiar and some new.
Concerns about the distributional impact of trade have been given new force by the decline in labor’s share of national income; the long-term trend of rising income inequality; the increase in the share of goods and services that are tradable, and therefore of the broader scope of the population affected by the pressure of competition; and the perceived acceleration in the pace of economic change.
The greater mobility of financial flows has increased the sense among policymakers in many countries that their jobs have become harder, that they are less the masters of their own fate than in the past, and that they have a diminished ability to shield their companies and citizens from volatility.
But do these changes in economic circumstances and in perceptions fundamentally change what we know about the broad economic merits of global integration? I do not believe the basic economics of that judgment have changed.
Few would argue that economic integration by itself is sufficient to achieve broad-based gains in income growth both within and across countries. The relative prosperity of nations reflects different choices made by governments about a range of policies and institutions beyond the realm of trade and financial restrictions. But integration is an essential ingredient for achieving sustained growth. Reasonable people can disagree on the magnitude of gains that can be attributed to trade rather than other economic policies. But the evidence in support of the broad consensus that openness and integration contribute significantly to better growth outcomes remains compelling.
Just as compelling is the evidence against the proposition that protection in the form of restrictions on trade increases growth or reduces inequality. The world has a lot of experience with different policies designed to slow the pace of integration or to insulate parts of the economy from its effects, and these policies have generally been associated with worse economic outcomes. The poor do not benefit from protectionism.
Although the balance of economic evidence has not fundamentally changed, the politics around globalization and integration have become more challenging.
The fact that the United States is now in the fifth consecutive year of expansion and that unemployment is now at 4.4 percent doesn’t seem to have made trade any more popular. A recent Pew poll suggested that that nearly two-thirds of Americans feel less secure about their jobs than in earlier generations. And many attribute this increase in anxiety to trade.
This phenomenon of persistent and perhaps rising ambivalence about integration in the face of solid growth in average incomes is not unique to the United States. Here, as in many countries, the political consensus in favor of economic openness seems more fragile than it once was.
The debate about how to respond to this challenge tends to see the economic and political imperatives as in conflict. The most appealing political response—usually some form of selective restriction on trade or investment—is generally the option with the worst economic return. The typical political impulse is to try to address directly the source of the competitive pressure and to relieve it, but these measures cannot offer lasting relief. The economic price of protection, in terms of distorted incentives, reduced flexibility and broader costs on the economy as a whole, seem both more substantial and more enduring than any temporary political benefit.
The policy strategies that offer a better longer-term return do not try directly to relieve the pressures that come from economic and financial integration. Instead, they focus on the broader complement of policies and institutions that improve the capacity of economies to adapt to change and to absorb shocks. Those countries that have experienced the greatest gains as the world has become more integrated have been those with the type of policy and institutional infrastructure that facilitates economic flexibility and resilience in the face of change. The policies that offer the most promise in terms of broad-based income gains are not those that try to provide insulation from volatility, but those that make it easier to live with volatility.
In the realm of macroeconomic policy, this means further progress toward monetary policy credibility and fiscal sustainability, so that central banks and governments have the capacity to react to adverse shocks and mitigate the damage they can cause.
Even with the remarkable improvements in the conduct of monetary policy around the world over the past two decades, central banks in many countries do not have institutional independence, in law or in practice. And many still operate under policy regimes directed at limiting exchange rate changes—objectives that will necessarily conflict with their ability to achieve price stability, as their capital accounts become progressively more open. Economies with flexible exchange rate regimes generally fare better in the face of adverse external shocks. And in countries where central bank credibility is more firmly established, monetary authorities are better able to react to a sharp fall in asset prices or a negative demand shock.
In fiscal policy, the same basic point applies. Where fiscal sustainability is more firmly established, governments have more scope to respond to adverse demand shocks by reducing taxes or increasing expenditures. Where deficits are high and debt to GDP ratios are high and rising, government have less scope for countercyclical fiscal policy. In these cases fiscal stimulus is more likely to be met by a rise in risk premia, reducing, if not fully offsetting, the desired benefits to growth. Even in those emerging markets that have seen the most impressive progress toward fiscal sustainability, few have reached the point where they have built much of a cushion against future shocks. And in the United States and many other economies, the demographic changes now working their way through the economy entail very large future deficits and consequently very limited fiscal room for maneuver.
The right macroeconomic policy framework is crucial. But we have come to recognize that other issues, traditionally the province of microeconomics, have a vital role in contributing to effective macroeconomic policy. A critical factor distinguishing long-term economic performance among countries with relatively good monetary and fiscal policies is the degree of overall flexibility they exhibit in labor, product and financial markets. This is not simply about the presence or absence of regulation. It is a function of the incentives regulation creates and the extent to which it gets in the way of competition, impedes the allocation of labor and capital to industries with a higher return, favors established firms, and creates barriers to new entrants.
As the substantial body of research on structural reforms by the OECD has demonstrated, where regulation is more compatible with flexibility, productive growth has generally been higher, as technological advances have been diffused and adopted more rapidly. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook reports that, among the major economies, those with more flexible labor markets have seen smaller declines in labor’s share of income.
Open economies, of course, need strong and resilient financial systems. As financial systems develop and capital markets become more open and integrated, savings should be allocated more efficiently and risks distributed more broadly, both within and across countries. This process, however, is messy and very challenging to manage well. The history of economic crises over the last two decades is a history not just of fiscal profligacy and monetary policy mistakes, but of financial system weakness—often the result of rapid deregulation and capital account liberalization in a context of weak supervision and a broad government guarantee of bank liabilities.
The development of deeper and more resilient financial markets is important for economies to be able to cope better with exchange rate flexibility and capital mobility. And financial strength is an important part of the arsenal of macro policy tools, for monetary policy is less effective in cushioning the effects of asset price and demand shocks in circumstances where the banking sector is impaired.
A final and critical dimension of the policy framework that is important to the successful management of economic integration is the design of the public or social infrastructure. Raising the quality of educational outcomes is vital, as is the design of the network of insurance mechanisms, from unemployment insurance and training support, to health care and pension schemes. As progressively larger shares of the population become more exposed to the pressures of competition, as economies become more flexible, governments have to do a better job of designing programs of assistance that can ease the costs of adjustment.
These policies and institutional reforms are fundamentally the responsibility of national governments. International institutions can help, with technical assistance and financial support, but these challenges are essentially national challenges. The reforms of the international institutions now underway to make them more representative of the changing balance of economic activity in the world are laudable. And we share a common interest in a broad range of informal mechanisms for cooperation on policies in the financial arena. But ultimately it is the quality of the choices national governments make that will determine how their economies fare in a more open global economy.
Global integration is not the primary source of the world’s economic problems, nor can it be the primary solution to them. But economic integration can contribute significantly to sustained growth, rising incomes and declining poverty rates. The most effective policy response to the concerns of those who fear the consequences of further integration is to direct more political capital to the challenge of developing the economic and institutional infrastructure that will enable governments and their citizens to adapt more readily to change.
We are living in the developing world, which presupposes cooperation between countries and their businesses. That is why many countries accepted globalization and started to expand their organizations abroad.
But sometimes there is no need to go too far, and it is much easier and more advantageous to implement regional integration (RI). Of course, this process is not easy, and it has a range of disadvantages, but the benefit of the operation is also immense. Considering all the pros and cons, many countries and states decide to cooperate.
It is claimed that the interest to RI occurred after the concept of globalization became widely spread. From this perspective, it can be concluded that RI is a kind of response, as globalization is seen as a consequence of cross-border operations, while RI is more like a trigger of them.
Still, both streamline the development of the country and enhance economic growth by providing the opportunity to use economies on a wider market. In other words, RI allows the states within one region to work together and bring stability and wealth.
Among the factors that can promote RI is the existence of similar problems, common goals, and history, similar culture and language, lack of resources, and the impact of globalization. As a rule, RI involves a written document, which describes the agreement between the states in detail.
The process of RI usually starts with economics, which turns into a single market when the economy of two bodies becomes totally integrated and has no boundaries. Regional economic integration (REI) occurs when the neighbor countries or states remove trade barriers.
These can be some taxes on imports, the number of imported things, and restrictions regarding the border. It is important that while trade barriers between the countries that cooperate are removed and agreed upon, those connected with other countries may be still considered by each of them separately.
Among the best examples of REI are the North American Free Trade Agreement and the European Union. The first one remained on the initial step and is still a free trade area while the second one turned into the common market (“Extension: What is Regional Integration?” par. 5).
REI considers the free trade area, which can be implemented in several ways. The trade can be liberalized, or the boundaries can be completely removed. The last variant also includes the removal of taxes, limitations regarding the number of products, and other barriers.
A customs union presupposes that the cooperating countries have one tariff for trade for the countries that are not included in this alliance. In this way, they gain an opportunity to achieve a trade policy convergence, which tends to unite nations.
A common market goes further and covers all the aspects that were previously mentioned. It also includes the mobility of labor, which presupposes “a common visa policy and a common position on residency” (Kehoe 2).
Moreover, the countries provide common standards or at least agree to accept the most crucial ones. They include those related to health and safety, trust, etc. An economic union involves the implementation of common fiscal and monetary policies.
It is aimed at the creation of a super-national governing authority, which can control the situation in the member countries, direct them, and make sure that they act according to the agreement. The last step that is to be done to create a decent REI is the development of a political union. Of course, it may be seen as a political but not an economic integration, still, the connection between them cannot be denied.
Considering the mentioned information, it can be concluded that the major benefit of the REI is the ability to export and import not only various products but also labor among the countries that are the members of the integration.
In this way, the advantage occurs not only for businesses that can expand and develop but also to the general public, as the citizens can gain more different products at low prices. Mainly these products include labor, food, and information technology, but it is not the scope.
The advantages of REI cannot be denied, and some of them were already described and hinted at. Gathering them, we can see a kind of hierarchy, which shows the importance of some benefits on the country level while others are more connected with the international business. Still, the local ones have an immense impact on the global, which will be proved while discussing the advantages of RI.
The citizens of the countries or states that are involved in RI gain the opportunity to travel to them without complications. As one of the products that are allowed to be transferred is labor, people who are in need of work or are dissatisfied with the one they have and fail to find some within their location can extend the territory for searching.
In this way, international companies can get new personnel that may be better educated or/and have more experience in the field. As a result, employee performance will enhance, which is sure to have a positive influence on the quality of products and services as well as on customer satisfaction. Thus, the company’s competitive ability in the global market will be improved.
The improvement of the local business regarding the capacity to respond to the needs of the clients should also be considered. Due to the cooperation, the companies, the performance of which is not good enough to enter a bigger market, can create an alliance or a merger.
While working together, they can find ways to fill the gaps they have and direct their operations according to the demands of all members of RI (Volz 39). Consequently, the organizations will become much stronger and will gain an opportunity to globalize successfully utilizing the best practices they share. When the organization expands and opens a branch in another country, the necessity of expatriate employees becomes evident.
By dint of RI, companies gain an opportunity to improve their expatriate training as they can receive new knowledge. Except for that, they can exchange of expatriate employees. In this way, a worker, who has already worked in a particular country, can go to it again with new responsibilities or help to train another person.
The increased variety of goods and services will improve the quality of life in the countries. The market will expand due to the free trade, so more companies, and working places will occur and, as a consequence, more people will gain an opportunity to become employed and gain more money for living.
Except for that, increased trade among the members of REI, which has no taxes, will help the countries to save some money. They can be used later to purchase other products just to gain more those they usually buy. Such things are crucial for developing countries, as they are often considered not good enough for cooperation.
Showing such results, the countries will attract global attention. Their efforts will be surely mentioned and supported by others. They will receive loans and investments for further improvement. As an outcome, their international companies will take a step forward, just as it has happened in India (Hill par. 4).
One more advantage of RI is the increased number of companies in the international market. As the countries start to transfer their products without restrictions, more firms gain the opportunity to sell them abroad and increase their popularity while enhancing business performance.
Needless to say, that such an approach will attract international clients and be beneficial. As it was said, the creation of a new large market will allow the countries to gain the products produced in each of them.
Receiving those of better quality or just with a higher degree of specialization, they will gain an opportunity to use them to create new things and promote industrial development. Such an approach will also encourage much investment in the industries.
Here the attention should also be paid to resource utilization. By dint of REI, the countries can share their resources so that they can be allocated in the most optimal way (The World Bank 365). Due to it, production is expected to become more efficient and less costly. As a result of such development, the amount of money received with the help of international trade will become bigger.
Creating common business and improving it in the local area, the members of RI can compete better internationally. Their existing forces are united and cooperate in implementing innovative strategies as well as to share their best practices.
As a result, they can resist other international organizations and win customers’ attention. It also presupposes that the cooperation among the members of REI will increase. The benefit of such an outcome is that they can expect a helping hand from one another in the case of an emergency.
As the number of RI members is limited to the neighbor countries that tend to have common or at least similar problems and views, it is much easier for them to gain consensus than for global organizations that consist of more than a hundred members located in different parts of the world.
Such cohesion reduces the number of possible issues and allows them to come to the agreement regarding the taxes for international trade, etc. As a result, the countries will be more stable in political perspective and will cope with economic challenges brought by globalization with less effort.
Thus, it cannot be denied that REI is beneficial for its members in many perspectives and can improve international and, as a consequence, global business. Still, it should also be considered from another perspective.
REI has several disadvantages that include the creation of new trading blocs. They occur as the countries cooperate and create together the limitations and taxes for trade with the countries that are not members of RI. Some may refuse to cooperate, as the taxes can increase. One more demerit can be seen while looking at the costs of the products.
Some of them may be cheaper in the non-member country, but because of the RI, they will have to buy them from a member and pay more. Some may also consider the fact that the countries need to take into account the mind of other members instead of making decisions on their own disadvantage.
When lowering the degree of national sovereignty, they may feel dependent and weak. In addition, the level of integration is inversely proportional to the degree of sovereignty, and the closer the countries become, the less power they have.
REI can also motivate people to change their working places. Believing that they can gain something better in other countries, well-qualified and experienced professionals may quit and weaken the organization they worked in. As a result, the number of challenges faced by the native country will increase, and it will be much harder for it to develop on the same level as the members of RI (Wandrei par. 5).
Of course, such demerits make REI look less attractive, but they can be coped with. Before signing the written agreement, the country should consider the terms, which it believes to be beneficial. In this way, the main purpose is to agree on the monetary and fiscal policy regarding non-member countries.
The members should mention what taxes they want to install and what products they want to receive from non-member countries. The peculiarities of labor transfer may also be underlined. There are no doubts that countries can define what decisions they want to make on their own. Of course, they will need to give up something and make a compromise, but the advantages that will follow it tend to be greater.
When the members of RI are not equal, the countries that are weaker should realize that they cannot make their business prosperous in a moment. Sometimes it is better to make the integration deeper and get involved in something more than just free trade.
Close cooperation can bring significant development and enhance the performance of the member countries. In this way, they will make their markets more attractive, which is likely to have a positive influence on investments. A small regional market can be developed by focusing on particular products. The reduction of their quantity is expected to improve the quality and increase production-cost benefits.
As an outcome, it will also be easier for the country to enter a global market and remain competitive (The World Bank 261). Of course, RI cannot be considered a solution to all the challenges faced by the neighbor countries, but it is a thing that can be used to find needed answers and even cope with the negative effect of globalization on the economy.
So it can be concluded that the drawbacks REI has been left behind by its odds. The regional common market created by dint of REI is much more superior and provides more advantages than the market of one country, especially while considering international business.
Trade liberation will cause market expansion and allow the companies to utilize resources and products more efficiently. The industries will improve performance and innovate, which is likely to bring more investment and gains. Becoming a member of RI is the step that should be made by developing countries and those that need assistance from the outside. Cooperation is a great power, and it can change the world.
Extension: What is Regional Integration ? n.d. Web.
Hill, Taylor. India: Top Global Destination for Foreign Investment . 2014. Web.
Kehoe, William. R egional and Global Economic Integration: Implications for Global Business . 2006. Web.
The World Bank. Reshaping economic geography . Washington, DC: 2009.
Volz, Ulrich. Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance , Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2011.
Wandrei, Kevin. Advantages & Disadvantages of Regional Integration . n.d. Web.
IvyPanda. (2020, May 4). Regional Economic Integration. https://ivypanda.com/essays/regional-economic-integration/
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Gaps between the poorest and the richest people and countries have continued to widen…This continues the trend of two centuries. Some have predicted convergence, but the past decade has shown increasing concentration of income among people, corporations, and countries . UN Human Development Report 1999
…globalization has dramatically increased inequality between and within nations . Jay Mazur, Foreign Affairs
… inequality is soaring through the globalization period, within countries and across countries. And that's expected to continue . Noam Chomsky
…all the main parties support nonstop expansion in world trade and services although we all know it…makes rich people richer and poor people poorer… Walter Schwarz, The Guardian
The evidence strongly suggests that global income inequality has risen in the last twenty years . Robert Wade
We are convinced that globalization is good and it's good when you do your homework…keep your fundamentals in line on the economy, build up high levels of education, respect rule of law…when you do your part, we are convinced that you get the benefit . President Vicente Fox of Mexico
There is no way you can sustain economic growth without accessing a big and sustained market . President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda
We take the challenge of international competition in a level playing field as an incentive to deepen the reform process for the overall sustained development of the economy. WTO membership works like a wrecking ball, smashing whatever is left in the old edifice of the former planned economy . Jin Liqun, Vice Minister of Finance of China
There is an odd disconnect between debates about globalisation in the North and the South. Among intellectuals in the North one often hears the claim that global economic integration is leading to rising global inequality – that is, that it benefits the rich proportionally more than the poor. In the extreme claims, the poor are actually made out to be worse-off absolutely (as in the quote from Walter Schwarz). In the South, on the other hand, intellectuals and policy-makers often view globalisation as providing good opportunities for their countries and their people. To be sure, they are not happy with the current state of globalisation. President Museveni's quote above, for example, comes in the midst of a speech in the US where he blasts the rich countries for their protectionism against poor countries and lobbies for better market access. But the point of such critiques is that integration – through foreign trade, foreign investment, and immigration – is basically a good thing for poor countries and that the rich countries could do a lot more to facilitate this integration – that is, make it freer. The claims from anti-globalisation intellectuals of the North, on the other hand, lead inescapably to the conclusion that integration is bad for poor countries and that therefore trade and other flows should be more restricted.
The main goal of this essay is to link growing economic integration (‘globalisation’) with trends in growth, poverty, and inequality in the developing world. The phrase ‘global inequality’ is used to mean different things in different discussions – distribution among all the citizens of the world, distribution within countries, distribution among countries, distribution among wage earners – and the paper takes up all the different meanings.
The first half of the essay looks at the link between heightened integration and economic growth of developing countries. The opening-up of big developing countries such as China and India is arguably the most distinctive feature of the wave of globalisation that started around 1980. Individual cases, cross-country statistical analysis, and micro evidence from firms all suggest that this opening-up to trade and direct investment has been a good strategy for such developing countries as China, India, Mexico and Uganda.
How have the economic benefits of globalisation been distributed and what has happened as a result to global poverty and inequality? These are the questions addressed in the second half of this essay. In particular, Section 2 presents evidence in support of five trends in inequality and poverty since 1980:
The conclusions for policy from this review of globalisation and global inequality are very much in the spirit of the comments from Presidents Fox and Museveni. Developing countries have a lot of ‘homework’ to do in order to develop in general and to make effective use of integration as part of their development strategy. Rich countries could do a lot more with foreign aid to help with that homework. And, as Museveni indicates, access to rich country markets is important. There remains a lot of protection in OECD markets against the goods and people of the developing world, and globalisation would do more for developing country growth if developing countries and their people had freer access to those rich country markets.
To keep track of the wide range of explanations that are offered for persistent poverty in developing nations, it helps to keep two extreme views in mind. The first is based on an object gap: Nations are poor because they lack valuable objects like factories, roads, and raw materials. The second view invokes an idea gap: Nations are poor because their citizens do not have access to the ideas that are used in industrial nations to generate economic value…
Each gap imparts a distinctive thrust to the analysis of development policy. The notion of an object gap highlights saving and accumulation. The notion of an idea gap directs attention to the patterns of interaction and communication between a developing country and the rest of the world . (Romer 1993, p 544)
Many developing countries have become more integrated with the global economy in the past two decades, and at the same time their growth rates have accelerated (examples would be Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Uganda and Vietnam). A natural question to ask is whether there is a link. In other words, could countries such as Bangladesh, China, India, and Vietnam have grown as rapidly as they have, if they had remained as closed to foreign trade and investment as they were in 1980? This is not the kind of question that can be answered with scientific certainty, but there are several different types of evidence that we can bring to bear on it.
It is useful to begin with what one would expect from economic theory. As suggested by the quote from Paul Romer , traditional growth theory focused on accumulation and the ‘object gap’ between poor countries and rich ones. If the important thing is just to increase the number of factories and workplaces, then it does not matter if this is done in a closed environment or a state-dominated environment. That was the model followed in the extreme by China and the Soviet Union, and to a lesser extent by most developing countries, who followed import-substituting industrialisation strategies throughout the 1960s and 1970s. It was the disappointing results from that approach that led to new thinking both from policy-makers in developing countries as well as from economists studying growth. Romer was one of the pioneers of the new growth theory that put more emphasis on how innovation occurs and is spread and the role of technological advance in improving the standard of living. Different aspects of integration – sending students abroad to study, connecting to the internet, allowing foreign firms to open plants, purchasing the latest equipment and components – can help overcome the ‘idea gap’ that separates poor and rich nations.
What is the evidence on integration spurring growth? There are a large number of case studies that show how this process can work in particular countries. Among the countries that were very poor in 1980, China, India, Vietnam and Uganda provide an interesting range of examples.
China's initial reforms in the late 1970s focused on the agricultural sector and emphasised strengthening property rights, liberalising prices, and creating internal markets. As indicated in Figure 1, liberalising foreign trade and investment were also part of the initial reform program. In the 1980s China removed administrative barriers to trade, before turning to major tariff reductions in the 1990s. The role of international linkages is described in this excerpt from a case study by Richard Eckaus:
After the success of the Communist revolution and the founding of the People's Republic of China, the nation's international economic policies were dominated for at least thirty years by the goal of self-reliance. While this was never interpreted as complete autarky, the aspiration for self-reliance profoundly shaped trade policy, especially with the market economies. China's foreign trade began to expand rapidly as the turmoil created by the Cultural Revolution dissipated and new leaders came to power. Though it was not done without controversy, the argument that opening of the economy to foreign trade was necessary to obtain new capital equipment and new technology was made official policy. The creation of an ‘open door’ policy did not mean the end of foreign trade planning. Although Chinese policy became committed to the expansion of its international trade, the decision-making processes and international trade mechanisms of the pre-reform period continued in full force for several years, to a modified degree for several more years, and still continue to be evident in the licensing controls. At the same time, international transactions outside of the state planning system have been growing. Most obviously, enterprises created by foreign investors have been exempt from the foreign trade planning and control mechanisms. In addition, substantial amounts of other types of trade, particularly the trade of the township and village enterprises and private firms, have been relatively free. The expansion of China's participation in international trade since the beginning of the reform movement in 1978, has been one of the most remarkable features of its remarkable transformation. While GNP was growing at 9 percent from 1978 to 1994, exports grew at about 14 percent and imports at an average of 13 percent per year. The successes contradict several customary generalisations about transition economies and large developing countries – for example, that the transition from central planning to market orientation cannot be made without passing through a difficult period of economic disorganization and, perhaps decline; and that the share of international trade in very large economies cannot grow quickly due to the difficulties of penetrating foreign markets on a larger scale. (Eckaus 1997, p 415)
It is well-known that India pursued an inward-oriented strategy into the 1980s and got disappointing results in terms of growth and poverty reduction. Bhagwati crisply states the main problems and failures of the strategy:
I would divide them into three major groups: extensive bureaucratic controls over production, investment and trade; inward-looking trade and foreign investment policies; and a substantial public sector, going well beyond the conventional confines of public utilities and infrastructure. The former two adversely affected the private sector's efficiency. The last, with the inefficient functioning of public sector enterprises, impaired additionally the public sector enterprises' contribution to the economy. Together, the three sets of policy decisions broadly set strict limits to what India could get out of its investment. (Bhagwati 1992, p 48)
Under this policy regime India's growth in the 1960s (1.4 per cent per annum) and 1970s (−0.3 per cent) was disappointing. During the 1980s India's economic performance improved. However, this surge was fuelled by deficit spending and borrowing from abroad that was unsustainable. In fact, the spending spree led to a fiscal and balance of payments crisis that brought a new, reform government to power in 1991. Srinivasan describes the key reform measures and their results as follows:
In July 1991, the government announced a series of far reaching reforms. These included an initial devaluation of the rupee and subsequent market determination of its exchange rate, abolition of import licensing with the important exceptions that the restrictions on imports of manufactured consumer goods and on foreign trade in agriculture remained in place, convertibility (with some notable exceptions) of the rupee on the current account; reduction in the number of tariff lines as well as tariff rates; reduction in excise duties on a number of commodities; some limited reforms of direct taxes; abolition of industrial licensing except for investment in a few industries for locational reasons or for environmental considerations, relaxation of restrictions on large industrial houses under the Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices (MRTP) Act; easing of entry requirements (including equity participation) for direct foreign investment; and allowing private investment in some industries hitherto reserved for public sector investment. (Srinivasan 2001, p 245)
In general, India has gotten good results from its reform program, with per capita income growth above 4 per cent per annum in the 1990s. Growth and poverty reduction have been particularly strong in states that have made the most progress liberalising the regulatory framework and providing a good environment for delivery of infrastructure services (Goswami et al 2002).
The same collection that contains Eckaus's study of China also has a case study of Vietnam:
Vietnam has made a remarkable turnaround during the past decade. In the mid-1980s the country suffered from hyperinflation and economic stagnation; it was not able to feed its population; and hundreds of thousands of people were signaling their dissatisfaction by fleeing in unsafe boats. A decade later, the government had restored macroeconomic stability; growth had accelerated to the 8–9 per cent range; the country had become the second largest rice exporter in the world; and overseas Vietnamese were returning with their capital to take advantage of expanding investment opportunities. During this period there has also been a total transformation of Vietnam's foreign trade and investment, with the economy now far more open than ten years ago. That Vietnam was able to grow throughout its adjustment period can be attributed to the fact that the economy was being increasingly opened to the international market. As part of its overall effort to stabilize the economy, the government unified its various controlled exchange rates in 1989 and devalued the unified rate to the level prevailing in the parallel market. This was tantamount to a 73 per cent real devaluation; combined with relaxed administrative procedures for imports and exports, this sharply increased the profitability of exporting. This…policy produced strong incentives for export throughout most of the 1989–94 period. During these years real export growth averaged more than 25 per cent per annum, and exports were a leading sector spurring the expansion of the economy. Rice exports were a major part of this success in 1989; and in 1993–94 there was a wide range of exports on the rise, including processed primary products (e.g., rubber, cashews, and coffee), labour-intensive manufactures, and tourist services. The current account deficit declined from more than 10 per cent of GDP in 1988 to zero in 1992. Normally, the collapse of financing in this way would require a sharp cutback in imports. However, Vietnam's export growth was sufficient to ensure that imports could grow throughout this adjustment period. It is also remarkable that investment increased sharply between 1988 and 1992, while foreign aid [from the Soviet Union] was drying up. In response to stabilization, strengthened property rights, and greater openness to foreign trade, domestic savings increased by twenty percentage points of GDP, from negative levels in the mid 1980s to 16 per cent of GDP in 1992. (Dollar and Ljunggren 1997, p 455)
Uganda has been one of the most successful reformers in Africa during this recent wave of globalisation, and its experience has interesting parallels with Vietnam's. It too was a country that was quite isolated economically and politically in the early 1980s. The role of trade reform in its larger reform is described in Collier and Reinikka:
Trade liberalization has been central to Uganda's structural reform program. During the 1970s, export taxation and quantitative restrictions on imports characterized trade policy in Uganda. Exports were taxed, directly and implicitly at very high rates. All exports except for coffee collapsed under this taxation. For example, tea production fell from a peak of 20,000 tons in the early 1970s to around 2,000 tons by the early 1980s, and cotton production fell from a peak of 87,000 tons, to 2,000 tons. By contrast, coffee exports declined by around one-third. Part of the export taxation was achieved through overvaluation of the exchange rate, which was propelled by intense foreign exchange rationing, but mitigated by an active illegal market. Manufacturing based on import substitution collapsed along with the export sector as a result of shortages, volatility, and rationing of import licenses and foreign exchange. President Amin's policy toward foreign investment was dominated by confiscation without compensation, and he expelled more than 70,000 people from the Asian community. In 1986 the NRM government inherited a trade regime that included extensive nontariff barriers, biased government purchasing, and high export taxes, coupled with considerable smuggling. The nontariff barriers have gradually been removed since the introduction in 1991 of automatic licensing under an import certification scheme. Similarly, central government purchasing was reformed and is now subject to open tendering without a preference for domestic firms over imports. By the mid 1990s, the import tariff schedule had five ad valorem rates between 0 and 60 per cent. For more than 95 per cent of imported items the tariff was between 10 and 30 per cent. During the latter half of the 1990s, the government implemented a major tariff reduction program. As a result, by 1999 the tariff system had been substantially rationalized and liberalized, which gave Uganda one of the lowest tariff structures in Africa. The maximum tariff is now 15 per cent on consumer goods, and there are only two other tariff bands: zero for capital goods and 7 per cent for intermediate imports. The average real GDP growth rate was 6.3 per cent per year during the entire recovery period (1986–99) and 6.9 per cent in the 1990s. The liberalization of trade has had a marked effect on export performance. In the 1990s export volumes grew (at constant prices) at an annualized rate of 15 per cent , and import volumes grew at 13 per cent . The value of noncoffee exports increased fivefold between 1992 and 1999. (Collier and Reinikka 2001)
These cases provide persuasive evidence that openness to foreign trade and investment – coupled with complementary reforms – can lead to faster growth in developing countries. However, individual cases always beg the question, how general are these results? Does the typical developing country that liberalises foreign trade and investment get good results? Cross-country statistical analysis is useful for looking at the general patterns in the data. Cross-country studies generally find a correlation between trade and growth. Among developing countries, some have had large increases in trade integration (measured as the ratio of trade to national income), while others have had small increases or even declines over the past 20 years (Figure 2). In general, the countries that have had large increases in trade, have also had accelerations in growth. This relationship persists after controlling for reverse causality from growth to trade and for changes in other institutions and policies (Dollar and Kraay 2001b). All of the cross-country studies suffer from potential problems of omitted variables and mis-specification, but they are nonetheless useful for summarising patterns in the data.
A final piece of evidence about integration and growth comes from firm-level studies and links us back to the quote from Paul Romer. Developing countries often have large productivity dispersion across firms making similar things: high-productivity and low-productivity firms co-exist and in small markets there is often insufficient competition to spur innovation. A consistent finding of firm-level studies is that openness leads to lower productivity dispersion (Haddad 1993; Haddad and Harrison 1993; Harrison 1994). High-cost producers exit the market as prices fall; if these firms were less productive, or were experiencing falling productivity, then their exits represent productivity improvements for the industry. While the destruction and creation of new firms is a normal part of a well-functioning economy, too often attention is simply paid to the destruction of firms, missing half of the picture. The increase in exits is only part of the adjustment. Granted, it is the first and most painful part of the adjustment. However, if there are not significant barriers to factor mobility or other barriers to entry, the other side is that there are new entrants. The exits are often front-loaded, but the net gains over time can be substantial.
Wacziarg (1998) uses 11 episodes of trade liberalisation in the 1980s to look at the issue of competition and entry. Using data on the number of establishments in each sector, he calculates that entry rates were 20 per cent higher among countries that liberalised compared to ones that did not. This estimate may reflect other policies that accompanied trade liberalisation such as privatisation and deregulation, so this is likely to be an upper bound of the impact of trade liberalisation. However, it is a sizable effect and indicates that there is plenty of potential for new firms to respond to the new incentives. The evidence also indicates that while exit rates may be significant, net turnover rates are usually very low. Thus, entry rates are usually of a comparable magnitude to the exit rates. Using plant-level data from Morocco, Chile and Columbia spanning several years in the 1980s, when these countries initiated trade reforms, indicates that exit rates range from 6 to 11 per cent a year, and entry rates from 6 to 13 per cent. Over time, the cumulative turnover is quite impressive, with a quarter to a third of firms having turned over in four years (Roberts and Tybout 1996, p 6).
The higher turnover of firms is an important source of the dynamic benefit of openness. In general, dying firms have falling productivity and new firms tend to increase their productivity over time (Liu and Tybout 1996; Roberts and Tybout 1996; Aw, Chung and Roberts 2000). In Taiwan, Aw et al (2000) find that within a five-year period, the replacement of low-productivity firms with new, higher-productivity entrants accounted for half or more of the technological advance in many Taiwanese industries.
While these studies shed some light on why open economies are more innovative and dynamic, they also remind of us why integration is controversial. There will be more dislocation in an open, dynamic economy – with some firms closing and others starting up. If workers have good social protection and opportunities for developing new skills, then everyone can benefit. But without such policies there can be some big losers.
I want to close this section with a nice point from the economic historians Peter Lindert and Jeffrey Williamson (2001) concerning the different pieces of evidence linking integration to growth: ‘The doubts that one can retain about each individual study threaten to block our view of the overall forest of evidence. Even though no one study can establish that openness to trade has unambiguously helped the representative Third World economy, the preponderance of evidence supports this conclusion’. They go on to note the ‘empty set’ of ‘countries that chose to be less open to trade and factor flows in the 1990s than in the 1960s and rose in the global living-standard ranks at the same time. As far as we can tell, there are no anti-global victories to report for the postwar Third World. We infer that this is because freer trade stimulates growth in Third World economies today, regardless of its effects before 1940.’ (pp 29–30)
Much of the debate about globalisation concerns its effects on poor countries and poor people. In the introduction I quoted a number of sweeping statements asserting that global economic integration is leading to growing poverty and inequality in the world. The reality of what is happening with poverty and inequality is far more complex, and to some extent runs exactly counter to what is being claimed by anti-globalists. Hence in this section I am going to focus on the trends in global poverty and inequality. Let's get the facts straight, and then we can have a more fruitful debate about what is causing the trends. The trends that I want to highlight in this section are that: (1) growth rates of the poorest countries have accelerated in the past 20 years and are higher than rich-country growth rates; (2) there was a large net decline in the number of poor in the world between 1980 and 2000, the first such decline in history; (3) measures of global inequality (such as the global Gini coefficient) have declined modestly since 1980, reversing a long historical trend toward greater inequality; (4) there is no pattern of rising inequality within countries, though there are some notable cases in which inequality has risen; and (5) there is a general pattern of rising wage inequality (larger wage increases for skilled workers relative to those of unskilled workers). It may seem that Trend #5 runs counter to Trend #4, but I will explain why it does not. Nevertheless, Trend #5 is important and helps explain some of the anxiety about globalisation in the industrial countries.
We have reasonably good data on economic growth going back to 1960 for about 125 countries, which make up the vast majority of world population. If you take the poorest one-fifth of countries in 1980 (that is, about 25 countries), the population-weighted growth rate of this group was 4 per cent per capita from 1980 to 1997, while the richest-fifth of countries grew at 1.7 per cent (Figure 3). This phenomenon of the fastest growth occurring in the poorest countries is new historically; the growth rates of these same countries for the prior two decades (1960–1980) were 1.8 per cent for the poor group and 3.3 per cent for the rich group. Data going back further in time are not as good, but there is evidence that richer locations have been growing faster than poorer locations for a long time.
Now, the adjective ‘population-weighted’ is very important. If you ignore differences in population and just take an average of poor-country growth rates, you will find average growth of about zero for poor countries. Among the poorest quintile of countries in 1980 you have both China and India, and you also have quite a few small countries, particularly in Africa. Ignoring population, the average growth of Chad and China is about zero, and the average growth of Togo and India is about zero. Taking account of differences in population, on the other hand, one would say that the average growth of poor countries has been very good in the past 20 years. China obviously carries a large weight in any such calculation about the growth of countries that were poor in 1980. But it is not the only poor country that did well. India, Bangladesh and Vietnam have also had accelerated growth and grown faster than rich countries in the recent period. A number of African economies, notably Uganda, have also had accelerated growth.
The most important point that I want to get across in this section is that poverty reduction in low-income countries is very closely related to the growth rate in these countries. Hence, the accelerated growth of low-income countries has led to unprecedented poverty reduction. By poverty, we mean subsisting below some absolute threshold. Most poverty analysis is carried out with countries' own poverty lines, which are set in country context and naturally differ. In the 1990s we have more and more countries with reasonably good household surveys and their own poverty analysis. Figure 4 shows five poor countries that have benefited from increased integration, and in each case significant poverty reduction has gone hand-in-hand with faster growth. Poverty reduction here is the rate of decline of the poverty rate, based on the country's own poverty line and analysis.
China, for example, uses a poverty line defined in constant Chinese yuan . The poverty line is the amount of Chinese currency that you need to buy the basket of goods that the Chinese authorities deem the minimum necessary to subsist. In practice, estimates of the number of poor in a country such as China come from household surveys carried out by the statistical bureau, surveys that aim to measure households' real income or consumption. Most of the extreme poor in the world are peasants, and they subsist to a large extent on their own agricultural output. To look only at what money income they have would not be very relevant, since the extreme poor have only limited involvement in the money economy. Thus, what Chinese and other poverty analyses do is include imputed values for income in kind (such as own production of rice). So, a poverty line is meant to capture a certain real level of income or consumption.
Estimating the extent of poverty is obviously subject to error, but in many countries the measures are good enough to pick up large trends. In discussing poverty it is important to be clear what poverty line one is talking about. In global discussions one often sees reference to international poverty lines of either US$1 per day or US$2 per day, and I will explain how these relate to national poverty lines.
While Figure 4 shows the close relationship between growth and poverty reduction in five countries in the 1990s, it is not easy to extend the analysis to all countries in the world or back in time to 1980, because good household surveys are lacking for many developing countries. However, discussions of global poverty during this most recent era of globalisation are made easier by the fact that in 1980 a large majority of the world's poor lived in China and India, both of which have reasonably good national data on poverty. Bourguignon and Morrisson (2002) estimate that there were 1.4 billion people in the world subsisting on less than US$1 per day in 1980. Take this as a rough estimate around which there is a lot of uncertainty. Still, it is clear that at least 60 per cent of these poor were in China and India. So, what has happened to global poverty is going to depend to a very considerable extent on these two countries.
The Chinese statistical bureau estimates that the number of people with incomes below their national poverty line has declined from 250 million in 1978 to 34 million in 1999 (Figure 5). [2] Now, this Chinese poverty line is defined in constant Chinese yuan and it is possible to translate this into US dollars for the purpose of comparison with other countries. This conversion is best done with a purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate. This is the exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar that would lead to the same price in the US and China for a representative basket of consumer goods. It is the normal basis for making international comparisons of living standards. Evaluated at PPP in this way, the Chinese poverty line is equivalent to about 70 US cents per day – quite a low poverty line. Using information on the distribution of income in China, it is possible to make a rough estimate of the number of people with income under a higher poverty line – for example, US$1 per day at PPP. A rough estimate of the number of people in China in 1978 consuming less than US$1 per day would be in the ballpark of 600 million. [3] It may be surprising that the number is so much larger than the estimate of 250 million living on less than 70 US cents per day. But in 1978 a large mass of the population was concentrated in the range between 70 US cents and US$1.
India's official poverty data also show a marked drop in poverty over the past two decades. India's consumption-based poverty line translates to about 85 US cents per day at PPP. By that line, the Indian statistical bureau estimates that there were 330 million poor people in India in 1977, and the number declined to 259 million in 1999. We can make a similar rough estimate of the number of poor living under a higher poverty line of US$1 per day, using information on the distribution of income in Indian surveys.
In Figure 6, I combine rough estimates of US$1 per day poverty in China and India. In 1977–78 there were somewhere around 1 billion people in these two giant countries who were subsisting on less than US$1 per day at PPP; by 1997–98 the estimated number had fallen to about 650 million (according to the estimates of Chen and Ravallion (2001)). This poverty reduction is all the more remarkable, because their combined population increased by nearly 700 million people over this period.
It is easy to quibble about specific numbers, but no amount of quibbling can get around the fact that there has been massive poverty reduction in China and India. These countries' own data and poverty analysis show large poverty reduction, using lines that are below US$1 per day. The poverty reduction using a common international line of US$1 per day would be larger.
While there has clearly been poverty reduction in Asia, it is also clear that poverty has been rising in Africa, where most economies have been growing slowly or not at all for the past 20 years. Chen and Ravallion (2001) estimate that the number of poor (consuming less than US$1 per day) in Sub-Saharan Africa increased from 217 million in 1987 to 301 million in 1998. There is not comparably good data for 1980, but we know that the region was not doing well in the 1980–1987 period. If the rate of increase of poverty was about the same in the 1980–1987 period, as in 1987–1993, then the increased poverty in Africa during the 1980–1998 period would be about 170 million people.
Any careful estimate of worldwide poverty is going to depend primarily on trends in China, India, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Putting together these trends reveals a large net decline in the number of poor since 1980. This is an important historical shift. Bourguignon and Morrisson (2002) estimate that the number of very poor people in the world (US$1 per day line) increased up through 1980 (Figure 7). Between 1960 and 1980 the number of poor grew by about 100 million. Between 1980 and 1992, however, the number of poor fell by about 100 million in their estimate. Chen and Ravallion (2001) use a different methodology to estimate a further decline of about 100 million between 1993 and 1998. The same study found an increase in global poverty between 1987 and 1993, which may seem at odds with the Bourguignon-Morrisson results. However, a look back at Figures 5 and 6 reveals that the poor in China and India combined have done well over the past 20 years, except for the period from 1987 to 1993, when poverty in China and India temporarily rose . During that period India had a macroeconomic crisis and a sharp recession, and in China the growth of rural incomes slowed significantly.
Indian data for 1999/2000 show further declines that have not been incorporated in the global estimates for 1997/98. Based on the well-documented poverty reduction in China and India, and their weight in world poverty, we can be confident that 200 million is a conservative estimate of the poverty reduction since 1980. In many ways, however, adding up the good experiences and the bad experiences conceals more than it reveals. Certainly it is good news that large poor countries in Asia have done well (not just China and India, but Bangladesh and Vietnam as well). But that is no consolation to the growing number of poor in Africa, where economies continue to languish (with the occasional bright spot such as Uganda).
People use the phrase ‘global inequality’ casually to mean a number of different things. But the most sensible definition would be the same one we use for a country: line up all the people in the world from the poorest to the richest and calculate a measure of inequality among their incomes. There are a number of possible measures, of which the Gini coefficient is the best known. Xavier Sala-i-Martin (2002) finds in a new paper that any of the standard measures of inequality show a decline in global inequality since 1980. Subjectively, I would describe this as a modest decline, and one about which we do not have a lot of statistical confidence. But, even if global inequality is flat, it represents an important reverse of a long historical pattern of rising global inequality and contradicts the frequent claims that inequality is rising.
Bourguignon and Morrisson (2002) calculate the global Gini measure of inequality going back to 1820. Obviously we do not have a lot of confidence in these early estimates, but they illustrate a point that is not seriously questioned: global inequality has been on the rise throughout modern economic history. The Bourguignon-Morrisson estimates of the global Gini have it rising from 0.50 in 1820 to about 0.65 around 1980 (Figure 8). Sala-i-Martin estimates that the global Gini has since declined to 0.61. Other measures of inequality such as the Theil index or the mean log deviation show a similar decline. The latter measures have the advantage that they can be decomposed into inequality among countries (differences in per capita income across countries) and inequality within countries. What this decomposition shows is that most of the inequality in the world can be attributed to inequality among countries (Figure 9). Global inequality rose from 1820 to 1980 primarily because regions already relatively rich in 1820 (Europe, North America) subsequently grew faster than poor locations. As noted above (Trend #1), that pattern of growth was reversed starting around 1980, and the faster growth in poor locations such as China, India, Bangladesh and Vietnam accounts for the modest decline in global inequality since then. (Slow growth in Africa tended to increase inequality, faster growth in low-income Asia tended to reduce it, and the latter outweighed the former, modestly.) [4]
Thinking about the different experiences of Asia and Africa, as in the last section, helps give a clearer picture of what is likely to happen in the future. Rapid growth in Asia has been a force for greater global equality because that is where the majority of the world's extreme poor lived in 1980 and they benefited from the growth. However, if the same growth trends persist, they will not continue to be a force for equality. Sala-i-Martin projects future global inequality if the growth rates of 1980–1998 persist: global inequality will continue to decline until the year 2015 or 2020 (depending on the measure of inequality), after which global inequality will rise sharply (Figure 10). A large share of the world's poor still live in India and other Asian countries, so that continued rapid growth there will be equalising for another decade or so. But more and more, poverty will be concentrated in Africa, so that if its slow growth persists, global inequality will eventually rise again.
The analysis immediately above shows that inequality within countries plays a relatively small role in measures of global income inequality. Nevertheless, people care about trends in inequality in their own societies (arguably more than they care about global inequality and poverty). So, a different issue is, what is happening to income inequality within countries? One of the common claims about globalisation (see the quotes in the introduction) is that it is leading to greater inequality within countries and hence fostering social and political polarisation.
To assess this claim Aart Kraay and I (Dollar and Kraay 2001a) collected income distribution data from over 100 countries, in some cases going back decades. We found first of all that there is no general trend toward higher or lower inequality within countries. One way to show this is to look at the growth rate of income of the poorest 20 per cent of the population, relative to the growth rate of the whole economy. In general, growth rate of income of the poorest quintile is the same as the per capita growth rate (Figure 11). This is equivalent to showing that the bottom quintile share (another common measure of inequality) does not vary with per capita income. We found that this relationship has not changed over time (it is the same for the 1990s as for earlier decades). In other words, some countries in the 1990s had increases in inequality (China and the US are two important examples), while other countries had decreases. We also divided the sample between rich and poor countries to explore a Kuznets-type relationship (or, equivalently, included a quadratic term) and found that income of the poor tends to rise proportionately to per capita income in developing countries, as well as in rich ones.
Most important for the debate about globalisation, we tried to use measures of integration to explain the changes in inequality that have occurred. But changes in inequality are not related to any of these measures of integration. For example, countries in which trade integration has increased show rises in inequality in some cases and declines in inequality in others (Figure 12). So too for other measures such as tariff rates or capital controls. Figure 4 showed five good examples of poor countries that have integrated actively with the world economy: in two of these (Uganda and Vietnam) income distribution has shifted in favour of the poor during integration, which is why poverty reduction has been so strong in these cases. In low-income countries in particular much of the import protection was benefiting relatively rich and powerful groups, so that integration with the global market can go hand-in-hand with declines in income inequality.
While it is true that there is no general trend toward higher inequality within countries when looking at all the countries of the world, the picture is not so favourable if one looks only at rich countries and only at the last decade. The Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) has produced comparable, high-quality income distribution data for most of the rich countries. This work finds no obvious trends in inequality up through the mid to late 1980s. Over the past decade, on the other hand, there have been increases in inequality in most of the rich countries. Because low-skilled workers in these countries are now competing more with workers in the developing world, it is certainly plausible that global economic integration creates pressures for higher inequality in rich countries, while having effects in poor countries that often go the other way. The good news from the LIS studies is that ‘[g]lobalisation does not force any single outcome on any country. Domestic policies and institutions still have large effects on the level and trend of inequality within rich and middle-income nations, even in a globalising world…’ (Smeeding, this volume, p 179). In other words, among rich countries some have managed to maintain stable income distributions in this era of globalisation through their social and economic policies (on taxes, education, welfare).
Much of the concern about globalisation in rich countries relates to workers and what is happening to wages and other labour issues. The most comprehensive examination of globalisation and wages used International Labour Organisation data on very detailed occupational wages going back two decades (Freeman, Oostendorp and Rama 2001). These data look across countries at what is happening to wages for very specific occupations (bricklayer, primary school teacher, nurse, auto worker). What the study found is that wages have generally been rising faster in globalising developing countries than in rich ones, and faster in rich ones than in non-globalising developing countries (Figure 13). [5] However, their detailed findings are far more complex. First, there is a timing issue. Trade liberalisation is often associated with reduced wages initially, followed by increases past the initial level. Second, foreign direct investment (FDI) is very strongly related to wage increases, while trade has a weaker relationship. Locations that are able to attract FDI are the ones that have had the clearest gains for workers (examples would be northern Mexico, China, Vietnam), whereas countries that liberalise trade and get little foreign investment see weaker benefits. Finally, the gains are relatively larger for skilled workers. This finding is consistent with other work showing that there has been a worldwide trend toward greater wage inequality – that is, a larger gap between pay for educated workers and pay for less educated/skilled workers.
If wage inequality is going up worldwide, how can it be that income inequality is not rising in most countries? There are several reasons why these two trends are not inconsistent. Most important, in the typical developing country wage earners are a tiny fraction of the population. Even unskilled wage workers are a relatively elite group. Take Vietnam as an example, a low-income country where we have a survey of the same representative sample of households early in liberalisation (1993) and five years later. The majority of households in the sample and in the country are peasants. What we see in the household data is that the price of the main agricultural output (rice) went up dramatically while the price of the main purchased input (fertiliser) actually went down. These price movements are directly related to globalisation, because over this period Vietnam became a major exporter of rice (supporting its price) and a major importer of fertiliser from cheaper producers (lowering its price). The typical poor family got a much bigger ‘wedge’ between its input price and output price, and their real income went up dramatically (Benjamin and Brandt 2002). So, one of the most important forces acting on income distribution in this low-income country has nothing to do with wages.
Quite a few rural households also sent a family member to a nearby city to work in a factory for the first time. I worked on Vietnam for the World Bank from 1989 to 1995, and one of the issues that I covered was the manufacturing sector. When I first started visiting factories in the summer of 1989, the typical wage in local currency was the equivalent of US$9 per month. Now, factory workers making contract shoes for US brands often make US$50 per month or more. So, the wage for a relatively unskilled worker has gone up something like five-fold. But wages for some of the skilled occupations – say, computer programmer or English interpreter – may have gone up 10 times or even more. Thus, a careful study of wage inequality is likely to show rising inequality. However, how wage inequality translates into household inequality is very complex. For a surplus worker from a large rural household who gets one of the newly created jobs in a shoe factory, earnings go from zero to US$50 per month. Thus, if a large number of new wage jobs are created and if these typically pay a lot more than people earn in the rural or informal sector, then a country can have rising wage inequality but stable or even declining income inequality (in Vietnam the Gini coefficient for household income inequality actually declined between 1993 and 1998). In rich countries, on the other hand, where most people are wage earners, the higher wage inequality is likely to translate into higher household income inequality, which is what we have seen over the past decade.
A third point about wage inequality and household income inequality that is relevant for rich countries is that measures of wage inequality are often made pre-tax. If the country has a strongly progressive income tax, then inequality measures from household data (which are often post-tax) do not have to follow wage inequality, pre-tax. Tax policy can offset some of the trends in the labour market.
Finally, there is the important issue that households can respond to increased wage inequality by investing more in the education of their children. A higher economic return to education is not a bad thing, provided that there is fair access to education for all. In Vietnam, there has been a tremendous increase in the secondary school enrolment rate in the 1990s (from 32 to 56 per cent). This increase partly reflects the society's and the government's investment in schools (supported by aid donors), but more children going to school also reflects households' decisions. If there is little or no perceived return to education, it is much harder to get families in poor countries to send their children to school. Where children have decent access to education, a higher skill premium stimulates a shift of the labour force from low-skill to higher-skill occupations.
From this discussion it is easy to see why some labour unions in rich countries are concerned about integration with the developing world. It is difficult to prove that the integration is leading to this greater wage inequality, but it seems likely that integration is one factor. Concerning the immigration side of integration, Borjas, Freeman and Katz (1997) estimate that flows of unskilled labour into the US have reduced wages for such labour by 5 per cent from where they would be otherwise. The immigrants who find new jobs earn a lot more than they did before (10 times as much in one study), but their competition reduces wages of the US workers who were already doing such jobs. Similarly, imports of garments and footwear from countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh create jobs for workers there that pay far more than other opportunities in those countries, but put pressure on unskilled wages in the rich countries.
Thus, overall the era of globalisation has seen unprecedented poverty reduction and probably a modest decline in global inequality. However, it has put real pressure on less-skilled workers in rich countries, and this competitive pressure is a key reason why the growing integration is controversial in the industrial countries and why there is a significant political movement to restrict the opportunities of poor countries. More generally, the integration causes disruption in both rich countries and poor ones. Some people are thrown out of work, some capitalists lose their investments; in the short run there are clearly winners and losers. To some extent the extreme claims of anti-globalists that integration is leading to higher inequality across and within countries – claims that are not borne out by the evidence – distract attention from the real issues. Globalisation is disruptive, it produces relative winners and losers, and there are public policies that can mitigate these bad effects (social protection, investment in education). The key policy issue is whether to try to mitigate the bad effects of integration or to roll back integration.
What are the implications of these findings – for developing countries, for rich countries, and for non-government organisations that care about global poverty? So far, the most recent wave of globalisation starting around 1980 has been a powerful force for equality and poverty reduction. But it would be naïve to think that this will inevitably continue.
Whether global economic integration continues to be an equalising force will depend on the extent to which poor locations participate in this integration, and that in turn will depend on both their own policies and the policies of the rich world. True integration requires not just trade liberalisation, but also wide-ranging reforms of institutions and policies. If we look at some of the countries that are not participating very strongly in globalisation, many of them have serious problems with the overall investment climate: Kenya, Pakistan, Burma and Nigeria would all be examples. Some of these countries also have restrictive policies toward trade, but even if they liberalise trade not much is likely to happen without other measures. It is not easy to predict the reform paths of these countries. (If you think about some of the relative successes that I have cited – China, India, Uganda, Vietnam – in each case their reform was a startling surprise.) As long as there are locations with weak institutions and policies, people living there are going to fall further and further behind the rest of the world in terms of living standards.
Building a coalition for reform in these locations is not easy, and what outsiders can do to help is limited. But one thing that the rich countries can do is to make it easy for developing countries that do choose to open up, to join the club. Unfortunately, in recent years the rich countries have been making it harder for countries to join the club of trading nations. The GATT was originally built around agreements concerning trade practices. Now, however, a certain degree of institutional harmonisation is required to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO) (for examples, on policies toward intellectual property rights). The proposal to regulate labour standards and environmental standards through WTO sanctions would take this requirement for institutional harmonisation much farther. Power in the WTO is inherently unbalanced: size matters in the important area of dispute settlement where only larger countries can effectively threaten to retaliate against illegal measures. If the US wins an unfair trade practices case against Bangladesh it is allowed to impose punitive duties on Bangladeshi products. Owing to the asymmetry in the size of these economies the penalties are likely to impose a small cost on US consumers and a large one on Bangladeshi producers. Now, suppose the situation is reversed and Bangladesh wins a judgment against the US. For Bangladesh to impose punitive duties on US products is likely to hurt its own economy much more than the US. Thus, developing countries see the proposal to regulate their labour and environmental standards through WTO sanctions as inherently unfair and as a new protectionist tool that rich countries can wield against them.
So, globalisation will proceed more smoothly if the rich countries make it easy for developing countries to benefit from trade and investment. Reciprocal trade liberalisations have worked well throughout the post-war period. There still are serious protections in OECD countries against agricultural and labour-intensive products that are important to developing nations. It would help substantially to reduce these protections. At the same time, developing countries would benefit from further openings of their own markets. They have a lot to gain from more trade in services. Also, 70 per cent of the tariff barriers that developing countries face are from other developing countries. So, there is a lot of potential to expand trade among developing countries, if trade restrictions were further eased. However, the trend to use trade agreements to try to impose an institutional model from the OECD countries on Third World countries makes it more difficult to reach trade agreements that benefit poor countries.
Another reason to be pessimistic concerns geography. There is no inherent reason why coastal China should be poor – or southern India, or Vietnam, or northern Mexico. These locations historically were held back by misguided policies, and with policy reform they can grow very rapidly and take their natural place in the world income distribution. However, the same reforms are not going to have the same effect in Mali or Chad. Some countries have poor geography in the sense that they are far from markets and have inherently high transport costs. Other locations face challenging health and agricultural problems. So, it would be naïve to think that trade and investment can alleviate poverty in all locations. Much more could be done with foreign aid targeted to developing medicines for malaria, AIDS, and other health problems of poor areas and to building infrastructure and institutions in these locations. The promises for greater aid from the US and Europe at the Monterrey Conference were encouraging, but it remains to be seen if these promises are fulfilled.
The importance of geography also raises the issue of migration – the missing flow in today's globalisation. Migration from locations that are poor because of either weak institutions and/or difficult physical geography could make a large contribution to reducing poverty in the lagging regions. Most migration from South to North is economically motivated. This migration raises the living standard of the migrant and benefits the sending country in three ways – reducing the labour force raises wages for those who remain behind, migrants typically send a large volume of remittances back home, and their presence in the OECD economy can support the development of trade and investment networks. These benefits are strongest if the migrant is relatively unskilled, since this is the part of the labour force that is in over-supply in much of the developing world.
Each year 83 million people are added to world population, 82 million of these in the developing world. Furthermore, populations in Europe and Japan are ageing and the labour forces there will begin to shrink without more migration. So, there are clear economic benefits to more migration of unskilled workers from the South to the North, and yet this flow remains highly restricted and very controversial because of its impact on society and culture. Because the economic pressures are so strong, however, growing volumes of illegal immigration are taking place – and some of the worst abuses of ‘globalisation’ occur because we are not globalised when it comes to labour flows.
Realistically, none of the OECD countries is going to adopt open migration. But there is a good case to be made to revisit migration policies. Some of the OECD countries have a strong bias in their immigration policies toward highly skilled workers, spurring ‘brain drain’ from the developing world. This policy pushes much of the unskilled flow into the illegal category. If OECD countries would accept – legally – more unskilled workers, it should help with their own looming labour shortages, improve living standards in sending countries, and reduce the growing illegal human trade with all of its abuses.
So, integration of poor economies with richer ones has provided many opportunities for poor people to improve their lives. Examples of the beneficiaries of globalisation will be found among Mexican migrants, Chinese factory workers, Vietnamese peasants and Ugandan farmers. Lots of non-poor in developing and rich countries alike also benefit, of course. But much of the current debate about globalisation seems to ignore the fact that it has provided many poor people in the developing world unprecedented opportunities. After all of the rhetoric about globalisation is stripped away, many of the practical policy questions come down to whether we are going to make it easy for poor communities that want to integrate with the world economy to do so, or whether we are going to make it difficult. The world's poor have a large stake in how the rich countries answer these questions.
Development Research Group, World Bank. Views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or its member countries. [1]
This estimate is only for the rural population of China. However, the available survey data show that there were almost no urban families living under this poverty line, either in 1980 or today. So, the estimate can be taken as a reasonable approximation of overall extreme poverty in China. [2]
The mean income in the rural household survey in China, converted into 1993 US dollars with the Summers and Heston PPP exchange rate, is about US$200 per year in 1978. Using the information on the distribution of income in the 1981 sample, the earliest available, the estimated number of people in China with income less than US$1 per day would be as high as 750 million. The number consuming less than US$1 per day would be smaller, since even the very poor have some savings in China. Also, the early surveys may not have done a good job with imputed consumption from housing and other durables. For these reasons I take 600 million as a rough but conservative estimate of the number of poor (consuming less than US$1 per day) at the beginning of China's economic reform. [3]
Milanovic (2002) estimates an increase in the global Gini coefficient for the short period between 1988 and 1993. How can this be reconciled with the Sala-i-Martin findings? Global inequality has declined over the past two decades primarily because poor people in China and India have seen increases in their incomes relative to incomes of rich people (that is, OECD populations). If you refer back to Figure 6, you will see that the period from 1988 to 1993 was the one period in the past 20 years that was not good for poor people in China and India. [4]
Dollar and Kraay (2001b) divide developing countries into more globalised and less globalised; the more globalised are the top one-third of developing countries in terms of increases in trade to GDP between the late 1970s and the late 1990s. The Freeman, Oostendorp and Rama study uses this classification. [5]
Aw BY, S Chung and MJ Roberts (2000), ‘Productivity and Turnover in the Export Market: Micro-Level Evidence from Taiwan (China) and The Republic of Korea’, World Bank Economic Review , 14(1), pp 65–90.
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Bhagwati J (1992), India's Economy: The Shackled Giant , Clarendon Press, Oxford.
Borjas GJ, RB Freeman and LF Katz (1997), ‘How Much Do Immigration and Trade Affect Labor Market Outcomes’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , 1, pp 1–67.
Bourguignon F and C Morrisson (2001), ‘Inequality among World Citizens: 1820–1992’, DELTA Working Paper 2001-25.
Bourguignon F and C Morrisson (2002), ‘Inequality among World Citizens: 1820–1992’, The American Economic Review , forthcoming.
Chen S and M Ravallion (2001), ‘How did the World's Poorest Fare in the 1990s?’, Review of Income and Wealth , 47(3), pp 283–300.
Collier P and R Reinikka (2001), ‘Reconstruction and Liberalization: An Overview,’ in P Collier and R Reinikka (eds), Uganda's Recovery: The Role of Farms, Firms, and Government , Regional and Sectoral Studies, World Bank, Washington DC, pp 30–39.
Dollar D and A Kraay (2001a), ‘Growth is Good for the Poor’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No 2587.
Dollar D and A Kraay (2001b), ‘Trade, Growth, and Poverty’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No 2199.
Dollar D and B Ljunggren (1997), ‘Going Global: Vietnam’, in P Desai (ed), Going Global: Transition from Plan to Market in the World Economy , MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 439–471.
Eckaus R (1997), ‘Going Global: China',’ in P Desai (ed), Going Global: Transition from Plan to Market in the World Economy , MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 415–437.
Freeman R, R Oostendorp and M Rama (2001), ‘Globalization and Wages’, World Bank, Washington DC, processed.
Goswami O, AK Arun, S Gantakolla, V More, A Mookherjee (CII) and D Dollar, T Mengistae, M Hallward-Driemier, G Larossi (World Bank) (2002), ‘Competitiveness of Indian Manufacturing: Results from a Firm-Level Survey’, Research Report by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and The World Bank.
Haddad M (1993), ‘The Link Between Trade Liberalization and Multi-Factor Productivity: The Case of Morocco’, World Bank Discussion Paper No 4.
Haddad M and A Harrison (1993), ‘Are There Spillovers from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Panel Data for Morocco’, Journal of Development Economics , 42(1), pp 51–74.
Harrison A (1994), ‘Productivity, Imperfect Competition, and Trade Reform: Theory and Evidence’, Journal of International Economics , 36(1/2), pp 53–73.
Lindert P and J Williamson (2001), ‘Does Globalization Make the World More Unequal?’, NBER Working Paper No 8228.
Liu L and J Tybout (1996), ‘Productivity Growth in Chile and Columbia: The Role of Entry, Exit, and Learning’, in MJ Roberts and JR Tybout (eds), Industrial Evolution in Developing Countries: Micro Patterns of Turnover, Productivity and Market Structure , Oxford University Press, New York, pp 73–103.
Milanovic B (2002), ‘True World Income Distribution, 1988 and 1993: First Calculations Based on Household Surveys Alone’, Economic Journal , 112(476), pp 51–92.
Roberts M and J Tybout (1996), Industrial Evolution in Developing Countries: Micro Patterns of Turnover, Productivity and Market Structure , Oxford University Press, New York.
Romer P (1993), ‘Idea Gaps and Object Gaps in Economic Development’, Journal of Monetary Economics , 32(3), pp 543–573.
Sala-i-Martin X (2002), ‘The Disturbing “Rise” of Global Income Inequality’, NBER Working Paper No 8904.
Srinivasan TN (2001), ‘Indian Economic Reforms: Background, Rationale, Achievements, and Future Prospects’, in NSS Narayana (ed), Economic Policy and State Intervention: Selected Papers of TN Srinivasan , Oxford University Press, New York, pp 230–270.
Wacziarg R (1998), ‘Measuring Dynamic Gains from Trade’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No 2001.
Home — Essay Samples — Economics — Gold — The Golden Straitjacket: An Analysis of Global Economic Integration
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Introduction, national sovereignty and the golden straitjacket, economic performance under the golden straitjacket, social equity and the golden straitjacket.
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Last updated 31 Oct 2019
In this video we work through the different stages of economic integration between countries.
Nations might decide to deepen their economic ties for example through membership of a customs union or single market. Or they might opt to widen their integration by bringing more countries into an arrangement.
The issue of integration at a macro level has heightened in importance given the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.
Here are the main types of integration that we will look at. There are some interesting examples to look at from emerging and developing countries – to what extent can economic integration act as a catalyst for increased trade and investment and stronger rates of economic growth and development?
Monetary Union
Free Trade Areas
Customs Unions
A customs union comprises countries which agree to abolish tariffs and quotas between member nations to encourage free movement of goods and services. A customs union also adopt a common external tariff (CET) on imports from non-members countries.
Single markets
Single markets aim to achieve
Examples include:
Monetary union involves countries sharing a single currency. Examples include:
3rd December 2015
9th June 2016
24th March 2017
6th February 2018
Uk economy - why is the trade deficit rising so fast.
27th March 2023
23rd November 2023
Study Notes
Boston House, 214 High Street, Boston Spa, West Yorkshire, LS23 6AD Tel: 01937 848885
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2019 Theses Doctoral
Kiguel, Andrea
Financial integration is often perceived to lead to convergence of asset prices, as well as higher comovements across countries, with the idea that the dependence on world factors should increase as markets integrate. This dissertation focuses on analyzing how integration has changed over time in developed and, especially, emerging markets. In particular, the chapters tackle different aspects of how integration has changed over time and the relevance of particular global factors in pricing. In Chapter 1, I study the link between globalization and asset returns. Here, I provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of economic and financial globalization on asset return comovements over the past 35 years. The globalization indicators draw a distinction between de jure openness that results from changes in the regulatory environment and de facto or realized openness, as well as between capital market restrictions across different asset classes. Although globalization has trended positively for most of the sample, the global financial crisis and its aftermath have provided new headwinds. Equity, bond, and foreign exchange returns often have different responses to globalization. I generally find weak evidence of comovement measures reacting to globalization and often find other economic factors to be equally or more important determinants. In Chapter 2, I analyze variance risk in global markets. Innovations in volatility constitute a potentially important asset pricing risk factor that can be easily tested through the return on variance swaps. I characterize the exposure of the returns on three asset classes (equities, bonds and currencies) in all regions of the world to United States based equity variance risk. I explore the implications for global risk premiums and asset return comovements using both developed and emerging markets. I first find that regional portfolios across all three asset classes and practically all countries exhibit negative loadings with respect to the variance risk factor. This exposure is not only statistically but also economically significant representing for most assets we consider around 50% of the global risk premiums implied by a simple three-factor model with global equity, bond, and variance risks. Second, this simple three-factor model also explains a substantive fraction of the comovements between international assets, but the fit is best for international equity correlations and is worse for currency returns and across asset correlations. In Chapter 3, I study the link between time-varying integration and asset pricing. Emerging markets are subject to constant integration shocks, which can make markets more integrated or more segmented. Changes in integration have dynamic effects that are difficult to accommodate in valuation models, as both time-varying betas and risk premium are needed to capture the direct and indirect effects of changes in integration on dividend yields. Here, I develop a novel present value model to value cash flows with time-varying expected returns, where integration affects the cost of capital in a time-varying fashion. This framework prices expectations about future integration, which is modeled as a mean reverting process. I calibrate the model using a segmentation shock in Argentina in 2011 as a case study, and find that the model is able to capture part of the increase in dividend yields as markets became more segmented. By assuming that investors perceive the shock as permanent and thus price lower mean integration following the segmentation shock, I am able to model the full extent of the change in dividends. The three chapters show that, while integration has broadly increased over time, different asset classes have different responses to globalization. I find that integration is time-varying and that markets can become more segmented; that is, integration is not a one-way street, as many models have assumed in the past. Finally, I show that global factors matter in emerging markets in all asset classes, and identify variance risk as a new risk factor which helps explain why global capital asset pricing models tend to yield low discount rates in these economies. Therefore, researchers and practitioners should take into account the importance of both local and global factors when valuing emerging market assets and take into account that the relative importance of each factor varies over time.
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Humanities and Social Sciences Communications volume 11 , Article number: 1277 ( 2024 ) Cite this article
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Female refugees encounter unique challenges in host societies. These challenges often surpass those faced by male refugees, particularly in accessing the job market and making economic contributions to their new communities. Despite substantial literature on the challenges faced by refugee women, there remains a significant gap in research specifically focused on targeted educational and entrepreneurial interventions for this demographic. Additionally, studies exploring effective integration strategies through such targeted initiatives are notably scarce. This study, motivated by the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, seeks to fill this gap by examining the intersection of gender, immigration status, and climate change adaptation. It evaluates the effectiveness of an educational intervention tailored for refugee women within a transdisciplinary framework incorporating STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, & Math) and social science disciplines. This intervention aims to enhance subjective well-being, particularly by fostering sustainable entrepreneurship, facilitating integration into host societies, and fostering long-term contributions to climate change adaptation and resilience. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the study yields quantitative findings suggesting positive shifts in participants’ overall well-being post-intervention, albeit not reaching statistical significance. Qualitative analysis reveals four central themes: pre-program feelings of isolation and detachment, personal growth, supportive ecosystems, and increased sense of belonging. The qualitative findings serve to complement and enrich our understanding of the intervention’s effectiveness, offering valuable insights that may not be fully captured through quantitative measures alone. From these findings, it is evident that a gender-focused approach is essential for providing tailored integration support. These insights are valuable for policymakers, educators, and stakeholders alike. By recognizing and addressing the specific challenges faced by refugee women during resettlement, this intervention not only facilitates their integration into host societies but also enhances their overall well-being.
The global refugee crisis has reached unprecedented levels, with around 110 million individuals forcibly displaced from their homes, including 26 million refugees who have crossed borders and 82 million internally displaced persons (UNHCR 2021 , 2022 ) Footnote 1 . Refugees are individuals who have been forcibly displaced from their home countries due to serious human rights violations and persecution (Duthie, 2011 ), armed conflicts (Bradley, 2017 ), political instability (Lischer, 2017 ), or environmental degradation (Atapattu, 2009 ; Naser, 2011 ), seeking safety outside their borders where their own government fails to protect them (Boswell, 2003 ; Ferwerda and Gest, 2021 ; Parkins, 2010 ; Phillips, 2013 ). Clark ( 2020 ) suggests that mass migration poses intricate and multifaceted challenges for both refugees and the host countries they seek refuge in. The influx of refugees can strain host countries’ limited resources, leading to chronic dependence on governmental assistance, eroding their skills, and hindering their contribution to sustainable development (Irvine and Rome, 2007 ). Moreover, refugees contend with a myriad of challenges encompassing societal, political, and socioeconomic aspects, which impede their ability to establish a satisfactory standard of living within the host society (Mangrio and Sjögren Forss, 2017 ; Segal and Mayadas, 2005 ; Silove et al., 2017 ; Vasey and Manderson, 2012 ).
The challenges persist throughout the journey and continue upon arrival in host countries, where the refugees face additional obstacles to integration and well-being. Their physical well-being is at risk during the arduous journey, as they face dangerous travel conditions, exploitation by human smugglers, or the threat of violence and conflict (Arsenijević et al., 2017 ; Koser, 2011 ). The psychological impact is profound (Kirmayer et al., 2011 ; Li et al., 2016 ; Schweitzer et al., 2006 ). Additionally, refugees often encounter significant barriers in accessing basic necessities such as food, clean water, healthcare, and education in the host countries (McBrien, 2005 ; Morris et al., 2009 ). Connor ( 2010 ) highlights that refugees are educationally disadvantaged compared to other types of immigrants. Regardless of education level and skill set, most refugees face employment challenges in the host society and barriers to inclusion in local economies. The high skilled men and women have limited pathways to get their credentials evaluated and certified. Some research findings from Sweden (Bevelander, 2011 ) and Canada (Picot et al., 2019 ) suggest that even after controlling for various individual characteristics, such as age and education, country-of-origin effects persist and significantly impact the labor market outcomes of refugee men and women. It is also common for host countries to impose additional restrictions on the access of refugees to the labor market (Ruiz and Vargas-Silva, 2017b ; Zetter and Ruaudel, 2016 ). Most theories define successful integration for newcomers, including refugees, as equitable access to opportunities and resources, participation in the community and society, and feelings of security and belonging in their new homes (Ager and Strang, 2008 ; Hynie et al., 2016 ; Phillimore and Goodson, 2008 ; Scott Smith, ( 2008 )). However, despite changes in immigration status and employment, many refugees still feel isolated within their ethnic communities and lack integration into the host society. This lack of social integration is attributed to factors such as limited interaction outside their communities due to job nature or unemployment (Crisp, 2004 ). Language barriers (Kletĕcka-Pulker et al., 2019 ), cultural differences, and legal complexities (Kubal, 2013 ) further compound these challenges, making it difficult for refugees to establish a sense of belonging (Boda et al., 2023 ; Fuchs et al., 2021 ). Moreover, refugees may face discrimination, racism, and social exclusion (Taylor et al., 2004 ), which can further hinder their integration and overall well-being.
The integration of refugees is a multifaceted process. It requires them to adapt to the host society while maintaining their cultural identity, and for host communities to welcome and support them (Phillimore, 2021 ). Recent studies have identified education as a key dimension of refugee integration and social inclusion (Crea and McFarland, 2015 ; Dryden-Peterson, 2022 ; Hek, 2005 ). According to United Nations High Com- missioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Footnote 2 , tertiary education is recognized as a fundamental human right for refugees, contributing to personal development, empowerment, and socioeconomic integration. Along with education, entrepreneurial capacity can facilitate social mobility and effective integration by providing refugees with the skills and opportunities needed to succeed in their new environment (Atasü-Topcuoğlu, 2019 ; Khoudour and Andersson, 2017 ; Meister and Mauer, 2019 ; Shneikat and Alrawadieh, 2019 ; Verme and Schuettler, 2021 ). A study shows that refugees often turn to entrepreneurship, particularly informal ventures for their economic integration and well-being (Zehra and Usmani, 2023 ). Entrepreneurship not only boosts the labor force and drives consumer market demand but also has the potential to enhance productivity and catalyze structural changes in the host society (S. Braun and Kvasnicka, 2014 ; Hornung, 2014 ; Paserman, 2013 ; Peters, 2017 . Meister and Mauer ( 2019 ) study the development of the refugee incubator model through participatory focus group workshops and semi-structured interviews with refugee entrepreneurs and incubator stakeholders. They emphasize the need for a customized incubation model specifically tailored to the needs of refugee entrepreneurs. Furthermore, refugees engaged in entrepreneurial endeavors can spur innovation, leading to the creation of new patents (Moser et al., 2014 ) and the establishment of start-up enterprises (Akgündüz et al., 2018 ; Altındağ et al., 2020 ). Additionally, such initiatives may facilitate trade relations with their countries of origin (Ghosh and Enami, 2015 ; Mayda et al., 2017 ; Mayda et al., 2017 ; Parsons and Vézina, 2018 ) and contribute to sustainable development of the host country. It is essential to underscore the notable scarcity of prior research investigating the role of entrepreneurship in fostering the integration of refugees (Shneikat and Alrawadieh, 2019 ). Specifically, there is a lack of studies focusing on targeted programs that combine elements of education and entrepreneurship within the refugee integration context.
In delving deeper into the existing dearth of initiatives concerning the pivotal roles of education and entrepreneurship in refugee integration, it becomes evident that a crucial dimension has been overlooked: the gender perspective. Young and Chan ( 2015 ) emphasize the historical gender-blindness in refugee research and stress the need to consider gender dynamics to understand the unique challenges faced by both men and women during migration and resettlement. Researchers have noted that recent refugee arrivals tend to be more women than men (Connor, 2010 ). According to the UNHCR ( 2021 , 2022 ) Footnote 3 , 50% of refugees, internally displaced, or stateless populations are women and girls. Liebig and Tronstad ( 2018 ) point that refugee women face a potential “triple disadvantage”, combining challenges related to gender, immigrant status, and forced migration, which may compound or reinforce each other. They face marginalization, sexual exploitation, gender-based violence and, forced and child marriage (Davies and True, 2017 ; Hossain et al., 2021 ; Pittaway and Bartolomei, 2000 ; Roupetz et al., 2020 ) at the origin as well as host country. In general, female refugees face limited autonomy, restricted mobility, and diminished agency, hindering their ability to make decisions about their own lives and well-being (Catolico, 1997 ; McMichael and Manderson, 2004 ; Murphy, 2004 ; Simich et al., 2010 ). Refugee women have lower education levels and fewer basic qualifications compared to other migrant women and refugee men (Liebig and Tronstad, 2018 ). They often come from countries with high gender inequality and low female employment rates which can additionally impact their state in the host country (Ruiz and Vargas-Silva, 2017a ). Additionally, they typically possess lower proficiency in the host-country language during the initial years after arrival (Marshall, 2015 ). Refugee women also face prolonged challenges in entering the labor market compared to refugee men (Dumont et al., 2016 ; Minor and Cameo, 2018 ). Employment rates for refugee women, particularly in countries like Germany, are notably lower, with only 29% employed compared to 57% of men Footnote 4 .
It is noteworthy to mention that despite challenges, refugee women show resilience and a strong determination to rebuild their lives and contribute to their communities (Warriner, 2004 ). In contrast to findings linking refugee status with country-of-origin effects, several studies indicate that refugee women in countries such as Sweden demonstrated higher levels of labor market participation than in their countries of origin (CO-OPERATION, O.-O.F.E., & DEVELOPMENT ( 2015 ); Gutiérrez-Martínez et al., 2021 ; Khoudja and Platt, 2018 ). Customized support measures can reduce obstacles to workforce engagement among refugee women. Research indicates that higher qualifications and mentorship programs lead to increased employment and social networks for these women (Liebig and Tronstad, 2018 ). Many of them are desperate to work and become more educated but do not know how. They understand that employment is key for improving lives for themselves and their families (Glastra and Meerman, 2012 ). According to a recent study (Kabir and Klugman, 2019 ), refugee women have the potential to contribute to $1.4 trillion to the annual global GDP of the top 30 refugee-hosting countries provided all income gender gaps are addressed beforehand. Stempel and Alemi ( 2021 ) highlight a case where empowering female Afghan refugees was key to realizing significant economic growth and sustainable development. These women receive less integration support than their male counterparts; especially with respect to employment-related measures (Cheung et al., 2019 ; Hernes et al., 2019 ). The combination of education and economic support prove to be particularly beneficial for female refugees, highlighting the importance of targeted interventions for this vulnerable population (Young and Chan, 2015 ). Al-Rousan et al. ( 2018 ) emphasize that a scholarship program has a significant positive effect on the overall well-being of female refugee youth, enhancing their feelings of peace, security, and agency. Balaam et al. ( 2022 ) highlight that women value interventions that adopt a community-based befriending or peer support approach, as these approaches cater to a more comprehensive range of women’s needs. Recognizing and addressing their specific needs can help in establishing stronger, more prosperous, and equitable communities while advancing United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs) of promoting livelihoods and economic inclusion for refugees (Cf, 2015 ). The UNSDGs offer a framework to address the social, economic, and environmental challenges faced by refugee women. Emphasizing inclusivity, equity, and targeted support for vulnerable populations, the SDGs are crucial for refugee integration. Specifically, SDG 5 focuses on gender equality, SDG 8 on decent work and economic growth, SDG 10 on reducing inequalities, and SDG 13 on climate action. Integrating these goals allows for a holistic approach to developing interventions that will address the specific needs of refugee women, empowering them to become resilient to climate change, contributing to sustainable development.
While existing literature examines the challenges faced by refugee women during migration and in host societies, there is a significant gap in research on targeted, interdisciplinary interventions to address these issues. Specifically, studies focusing on gender-specific interventions that combine educational and entrepreneurial training to empower refugee women and enhance their integration into the labor market are scarce. To address this gap and align with the UNSDGs (Cf 2015 ) Footnote 5 , the “Building Entrepreneurial Capacity for Refugee Women” (BECRW) program was developed. BECRW was tailored to the needs of the selected refugee women Footnote 6 residing in the southwestern United States (U.S). The specific challenges faced by refugee women in this region include broader community integration, access to education and employment, digital literacy, and language barrier. By situating our study in this context, we aim to provide insights that are both locally relevant and globally applicable (refer to “Institute Framework”, “Intervention Framework”, “Study Population”). This program was conducted over a period of 6 weeks through a virtual platform under the auspices of the Summer Institute for Sustainability and Climate Change (SISCC) in the College of Engineering at Purdue University. BECRW employed STEM and social science disciplines, adopting a transdisciplinary framework. Engineers, researchers, and social scientists collaborated to design a comprehensive and context-specific framework tailored to the unique needs of the refugee women, ensuring a holistic approach to addressing their challenges. Studies (Davaki, 2021 ; Murray et al., 2023 ) highlight the significance of interdisciplinary collaboration between STEM and social science disciplines in addressing complex challenges such as forced migration, climate change, and sustainable development. The aim of the BECRW program was to assist 20 refugee women to personally and professionally advance by providing them with a meticulously curated curriculum that combines elements of research, innovation, sustainability, and entrepreneurship. The objective of this study is to emphasize the non-traditional framework of the program while assessing the effectiveness of the intervention. Employing a mixed methods approach, we investigated the influence of this program on participants’ personal and professional development, state of being, and social inclusion. The following sections of this paper will delve into the design (“Design”), the methods (“Method”), the results (“Results”) and the discussion (“Discussion”) that substantiate the research question and hypothesis regarding the intervention’s effectiveness.
The SISCC, held over a period of six weeks, provided an immersive online learning experience as shown in Fig. 1 . The institute placed a strong emphasis on addressing critical challenges associated with energy & sustainability, climate change & global warming, social inclusion & gender equality, and sustainable entrepreneurship & small business. Its primary goal was to bring together individuals from diverse educational backgrounds and academic stages, creating an inclusive and transdisciplinary community. Participants encompassed high school students, undergraduate and graduate students, and refugee women. Including refugee women in the SISCC was crucial to the goal of the institute. By including refugee women we not only address the specific needs and vulnerabili- ties of this population but also recognize their potential contributions to sustainable development efforts. Refugee women bring unique perspectives, knowledge, and lived experiences that enrich the discourse on climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience. The structure of the institute comprised of daily lectures and discussions on the research fundamentals. All participants were given a choice to select a particular research group and projects they were interested in. This provided a valuable platform for knowledge exchange and collaboration. It encouraged interdisciplinary dialog and meaningful connections among participants through a variety of interactive activities. These activities included project-based learning, workshops, seminars, and innovation using various scientific tools, which allowed them to apply their knowledge and skills to real-world scenarios. This structure was established through a diverse mentorship model. Participants received guidance and support from a range of mentors from multiple disciplines and varying academic levels. This included graduate mentors (PhD students and postdocs) and esteemed faculty members from renowned national and international institutions. The Summer Institute also provided opportunities for participants to showcase their work and receive feedback. Poster competition, research presentations and business pitches allowed participants to present their projects and receive valuable input from peers and experts. Additionally, participants were given stipends and reimbursements to support their research and participation.
Overview of the Summer Institute for Sustainability and Climate Change.
An integral part of the SISCC was the conference on Blue Integrated Partnerships and the 2050 Workforce of Tomorrow Footnote 7 . This four-day conference brought together academia, government agencies, and industry leaders to address climate change-related challenges. The conference provided a platform for participants to engage with federal government officials and scholars, learn about the latest advancements in sustainability, and explore potential collaborations with historically black colleges, universities/minority serving institutions (HBCUs/MSIs) and minority-owned companies. The combined design of the Summer Institute and the conference reflected a holistic and comprehensive approach to addressing climate change and sustainability. SISCC framework aligned with multiple United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (Cf 2015 ) Footnote 8 , reflecting its commitment to addressing climate change (Soergel et al., 2021 ), promoting gender equality (Esquivel and Sweetman, 2016 ), providing quality education (Webb et al., 2017 ), fostering innovation (Denoncourt, 2020 ), building sustainable communities (Griggs et al., 2013 ) and fostering partnerships (Hübscher et al., 2022 ) for sustainable development.
SISCC initiated a collaborative effort merging STEM and social science disciplines, forming a partnership between the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) and Purdue University. This collaboration resulted in the establishment of the BECRW program, which recruited 20 refugee women. The design of this six weeks long educational and entrepreneurial initiative was tailored to address the specific gender needs identified by these women, shaping every aspect accordingly. The primary aim of the program was to support the personal and professional advancement of refugee women, with a particular focus on entrepreneurship. By emphasizing research, innovation, sustainability, and entrepreneurship, the program sought to enhance the economic capacity of participants, contribute to sustainable development, and improve overall well-being. Recognizing the importance of long-term solutions and economic self-sufficiency, the program aimed to provide opportunities for participants to rebuild their lives, gain independence, and actively contribute to their local communities through entrepreneurship.
The BECRW program was structured around a comprehensive four-phase framework as shown in Fig. 2 . The first phase centered on recruitment and enrollment. It is important to note that refugee women often fall within the category of “difficult to access” or “hard to reach” populations due to various challenges such as socio-cultural barriers, trauma-related mental health issues, legal obstacles, and stigma (Read and Fenge, 2019 ). In recruiting participants for our study, we utilized a combination of convenience sampling and snowball sampling techniques to engage with diverse groups of refugee women in El Paso, Texas, and Phoenix, Arizona. Convenience sampling allowed us to leverage existing connections with centers supporting refugees and women in both regions, facilitating easy access to potential participants (Spring et al., 2003 ). Our team member, who had established connections with these centers, distributed flyers featuring her contact information to stakeholders and community members frequenting these facilities. This approach ensured that interested refugee women could easily reach out to inquire about the project and determine if they met the inclusion criteria. Additionally, our team member’s affiliation with the Valleywise Refugee Women’s Clinic Footnote 9 in Phoenix provided an avenue for recruitment, offering a trusted environment where refugee women could learn about the study and express their interest in participation. Interested individuals reached out to our team member, and utilizing a snowballing technique, referrals from initial participants expanded our pool of potential candidates. Through informal interactions and focus groups held at these centers, we engaged with refugee women who met the inclusion criteria: being 18 years old and older, having entered the U.S. as an asylum seeker or refugee, speaking basic English, and demonstrating interest in entrepreneurship and sustainability.
Intervention Framework and Mixed Methods Design.
The second phase of the BECRW program encompassed the completion of the six-week summer institute, during which participants were immersed in a carefully crafted curriculum integrating theory-driven and research-based approaches. The curriculum ensured inclusion of content related to the diverse educational backgrounds, skills, and aspirations of refugee women. This included addressing specific challenges such as language barriers, cultural differences, and family responsibilities, while also integrating subjects that built capacity in areas like professional skills training, financial literacy, and environmental sustainability. Modules addressing gender bias, the impact of migration on women, and issues of gender-based violence, discrimination, and harassment were also incorporated. Synchronous and asynchronous online courses were provided, allowing participants to join live sessions or watch recorded courses at their convenience. The program recognized that refugee women often faced dual challenges: significant family caregiving responsibilities affecting their access to education and hindering their professional aspirations (Cole et al., 2013 ; Crawford et al., 2023 ; Sansonetti, 2016 ; Wight et al., 2021 ). The study revealed that many participants juggled childcare and family care daily, limiting their time for personal development. To address this, the BECRW program offered flexible schedules, supportive services, and a learner community chat group. This tailored approach enhanced accessibility and relevance, boosting participation and success rates among refugee women, enabling them in fulfilling the multiple roles they play.
As part of this intervention, all 20 female participants were mandated to attend or watch specialized lectures on entrepreneurship and small businesses as well as to submit assignments and presentations. These activities aimed to equip them with the knowledge and skills necessary to develop their entrepreneurial ventures. The program offered a flexible learning format to accommodate the diverse responsibilities and constraints faced by refugee women, such as childcare or household duties. Furthermore, the program also created a safe and inclusive learning environment, considering potential trauma and psychological challenges experienced by participants. This involved trauma-informed teaching practices, flexible attendance policies, trigger warning policies, and peer support groups. Each participant was paired with a graduate mentor to provide support throughout the duration of the program, ensuring adaptability and responsiveness to their requirements. Additionally, the program focused on capacity- building for participants by facilitating networking opportunities, peer support groups, and access to resources such as laptops and financial support. Involvement of the local community and potential employers further enhanced inclusivity, breaking down stereotypes and creating tailored business opportunities for refugee women. Encouraging a sustainable approach, participants were prompted to explore entrepreneurial ideas with an eco-friendly focus, fostering a culture of environmentally responsible business practices.
In the third phase, the BECRW program implemented a robust evaluation and post-program follow-up process. This involved a pre-and post-test study design with the 20 participants taking a survey before and after their participation in the program. This survey aimed to measure the impact of the program on participants’ emotional, social, and psychological well-being as well as life satisfaction. Furthermore, a qualitative evaluation was conducted three months after the program’s conclusion, allowing participants to reflect on how their engagement in the SISCC and BECRW had influenced their lives, personally and professionally. The final phase of the program involved post-program evaluation, data analysis, and the generation of a comprehensive final report. By collating and analyzing the data collected, program’s effectiveness and impact were assessed, providing valuable insights for project improvement and future dissemination. In this context, the effectiveness metric, referred to how well the BECRW program achieved its intended outcomes in real-world settings among refugee women participants. It assessed the program’s ability to improve participants’ personal and professional development, well-being, and social inclusion within their actual experiences and environments. This evaluation was conducted with a feasible degree of control, aimed at minimizing the influence of external factors on the results. Furthermore, the anonymous feedback provided by the participants served as a key resource for understanding their perspectives and experiences, further refining the program’s design and delivery.
The BECRW program engaged a group of 20 refugee women, recruited from the cities of El Paso, Texas, and Phoenix, Arizona in the U.S. While the demographic characteristics of these participants were diverse, they were representative of the population in the southwestern U.S. Nonetheless, these characteristics may not fully encompass the diversity of refugee women globally, as different regions may present distinct challenges and resources for refugee integration. For instance, Texas, as one of the largest refugee resettlement centers in the United States, has welcomed over 44,000 refugees in the last ten years, whereas Arizona has welcomed over 20,000 refugees in the same period. American Immigration Council Footnote 10 indicates varying levels of consumer power among refugees, with Texas boasting a consumer power of $5.4 billion compared to Arizona’s $1.0 billion. Among the 20 participants in the BECRW program, half entered the US as asylum seekers, while the remaining half arrived as refugees. Throughout the program duration, all participants maintained permanent residency status in the U.S. It is essential to underscore that both refugees and asylum seekers encounter profound challenges in their host countries, stemming from their escape from war, violence, or persecution in their home countries. While refugees benefit from recognized status and certain rights, asylum seekers grapple with the uncertainty surrounding their legal standing, which can impede their access to vital services and protection (Davaki, 2021 ; Fonteneau, 1992 ). The challenges faced by refugees and asylum seekers have a lasting impact, persisting even after resettlement. Adjusting to a new country, navigating cultural differences, and rebuilding one’s life after displacement are complex processes requiring time and support. Barriers such as language, discrimination, and trauma persist even after obtaining permanent residency or being employed (O’Donnell et al., 2020 ). During the pre-program informal meetings with the participants, all of them expressed the lack of their ability to integrate into the host society irrespective of their employment status. In the BECRW program, the participants represent a diverse refugee women population with different migratory journeys, backgrounds, country of origin, education, age, employment, and marital status and number of years in the U.S. as shown in Table 1 . It is important to note that one participant discontinued their participation midway, and the demographics discussed above pertain to the remaining 19 participants.
Can a gender-focused educational intervention, exemplified by the BECRW program, effectively enhance the subjective well-being and empowerment of female refugees, particularly in the context of fostering sustainable practices, integration into host societies, and long-term contributions to climate change adaptation and resilience? This study expands upon several key points, including:
Developing targeted interventions to foster advancement among refugee women.
Investigating the potential of refugee women as agents of change and resilience within their host communities, while identifying effective strategies and approaches to enable their meaningful contributions to sustainable practices and solutions.
Analyzing the intersectionality of gender and immigration status and its implications for climate change adaptation among refugee women.
Investigating the synergistic relationship between STEM and social science disciplines in building the capacity of refugee women to engage in climate change adaptation efforts.
Providing recommendations for policymakers, educators, and stakeholders on inclusive and empowering interventions that address the specific needs and potential of refugee women in the context of climate change adaptation.
Inspired by the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (Cf 2015 ) Footnote 11 , particularly Goal 5: Gender Equality, Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth, Goal 10: Reducing Inequalities and Goal 13: Climate Action, this study emphasizes the importance of empowering women and addressing climate change impacts through an intersectional lens. The intersectionality between gender and migratory status adds layers of complexity to the challenges faced by refugee women. This intersectionality influences their vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate change. They often experience compounded discrimination and marginalization, which affects their ability to access resources and participate in adaptation strategies effectively (Davies and True, 2018 ; Liebig and Tronstad, 2018 ). Understanding these intersections is crucial for developing inclusive and effective adaptation programs.
The present study investigated the effectiveness of the BECRW educational program for refugee women’s empowerment through a sequential explanatory mixed methods design (Ivankova et al., 2006 ). Empowerment in this context refers to equipping participants with tools and resources to achieve economic independence, community integration, and control over their circumstances, given their limited access to formal employment and entrepreneurial opportunities. Drawing from Adams ( 2017 ), empowerment involves individual and collective efforts to maximize quality of life, build capacity for strength, confidence, and financial independence. It encompasses both self-empowerment and professional support to overcome isolation, powerlessness, and lack of influence while facilitating access to resources. In this study, the mixed methods design was embedded within the intervention program as shown in Fig. 2 . The design involved two phases: quantitative data collection and analysis followed by qualitative data collection and analysis. The rationale behind this design was to first establish a general understanding of the research problem through quantitative data, and then explain the quantitative results by exploring participants’ views through qualitative data. The quantitative phase utilized a pre-and post-program survey to gather numerical data on participants’ well-being, while the qualitative phase involved semi-structured interviews to gain in-depth insights into participants’ experiences. The survey scales and interview questions were purposefully selected and designed to align with the study’s conceptualization of how the educational program facilitated the empowerment of the refugee women participants. The sequential mixed methods design was chosen for its strengths in providing a more comprehensive understanding of the research question. By integrating quantitative and qualitative methods, the research team aimed to gain a deeper insight into the experiences, perspectives, and outcomes of the refugee women participating in the educational program (Fetters et al., 2013 ). This allowed for a nuanced and multifaceted evaluation of the research objectives, capturing the complexity of the participants’ experiences within the program. The subsequent sections will provide a detailed overview of the study’s quantitative and qualitative research designs.
The hypothesis of this study posits that the designed BERCW program is effective in improving the participants’ satisfaction with life, emotional, social, and psychological well-being and confidence, facilitating their integration into the host society. To investigate this hypothesis, surveys were employed as the primary mode of data collection. Surveys offer several advantages, including statistical analysis, scalability for a large number of participants, and the potential for anonymous responses that encourage openness and honesty (Braun et al., 2021 ; Mathers et al., 1998 ). A pre-, post-test study design was administered to the 19 participating refugee women. The surveys were collected through an online medium. The pre-program survey served as a baseline assessment. The survey consisted of closed-ended questions. Following the completion of the program, the same group of participants completed the post-program survey. The post-program survey mirrored the pre-program survey, enabling a direct comparison of participants’ responses before and after the program.
This study utilized validated scales to measure various aspects of participants’ well-being and life satisfaction. The Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS) was employed to assess participants’ overall life satisfaction. The SWLS consists of five items answered on a Likert-type scale ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). Higher scores on the SWLS indicate greater life satisfaction. The SWLS has demonstrated adequate psychometric properties, including discriminant validity (Diener et al., 1985 ). The Mental Health Continuum Short Form (MHC-SF) was used to measure participants’ emotional, psychological, and social well-being. The MHC-SF comprises 14 items answered on a Likert-type scale ranging from 0 (never) to 5 (every day). The scale provides three scores: hedonic well-being, eudaimonic well-being, and social well-being. Higher scores on the MHC-SF indicate greater well-being. The MHC-SF has been validated for use in individuals aged 12 years and older, demonstrating satisfactory psychometric properties across diverse samples (Lamers et al., 2011 ).
The utilization of the SWL and the MHC-SF scales in this study was highly relevant to examine the hypothesis. The SWL scale directly measures the program’s impact on participants’ satisfaction with their lives, which is an essential indicator of the intervention’s effectiveness in enhancing their overall well-being and integration as defined earlier in “Institute Framework”. The MHC-SF scale complements the SWLS by capturing multiple dimensions of well-being, including emotional, psychological, and social well-being (Tiberius and Hall, 2010 ), which are closely associated with participants’ confidence and empowerment that facilitate their integration. Notably, these scales serve as valuable measures of empowerment, a crucial factor in determining the program’s effectiveness as discussed in “Method”. The psychological well-being dimension of the MHC-SF scale assesses aspects such as personal growth, purpose, and meaning in life, which are essential for empowerment and self-confidence. Additionally, the social well-being dimension captures participants’ social relationships and connections, which contribute to their empowerment by overcoming feelings of isolation and fostering access to resources. Together, the SWL and MHC-SF scales provide a comprehensive evaluation of the program’s effectiveness in improving participants’ satisfaction with life, emotional, social, and psychological well-being, confidence, empowerment, and facilitating their integration into the host society.
In this one-group pre-and post-test design, several limitations were encountered by the researchers. This study can be categorized as a pre-experimental design due to the absence of randomization in sampling, lack of a control group, and inability to control for potential confounding variables arising from small sample size, high variability in demographics, and challenges in recruiting from vulnerable populations such as refugee women (Agadjanian and Zotova, 2012 ; Steel et al., 2009 ). Pre-experimental designs, typically exploratory in nature, are employed when resources, time, or participant access are limited (Campbell and Riecken, 1968 ). While such studies offer preliminary insights into variable relationships and trends, they are less robust in establishing causal relationships compared to true experimental designs. Previous studies have accounted for demographic characteristics as control variables that have a confounding effect on the dependent and independent variables of the study (Cheung and Phillimore, 2017 ). In this study, variables such as age, employment status, education level, and, years in the US could potentially confound the relationship between the BERCW program intervention and outcomes like satisfaction with life and overall well-being. Therefore, for future true experimental designs, it is imperative to control for these variables to accurately assess the intervention’s effects. Additionally, incorporating random sampling and a control group is essential to enhance generalizability, allowing findings to be extended to broader populations or contexts beyond the study’s specific sample or setting.
As previously noted, the limitation of a small sample size and substantial variability in demographics underscores the need for future research to ensure adequate representation across demographic categories. According to established literature guidelines (Hertzog, 2008 ), having a minimum of 30 samples in each category is considered good practice to mitigate biased outcomes regarding intervention effectiveness. Based on calculations considering factors such as confidence level (95%), margin of error (5%), population size (approx. 6000 female refugee population in Texas and Arizona in 2023 Footnote 12 ), and standard deviation, it is recommended that future studies aim for a sample size of 350–400 participants to conduct a robust analysis. This larger sample size would better facilitate meaningful insights and statistical significance in evaluating intervention effectiveness. Given the exploratory nature of our study, an a priori power analysis was not conducted; instead, our focus was on identifying trends to inform subsequent qualitative investigation. Paired samples t-tests (De Winter, ( 2013 )) were conducted to explore differences between pre-and post-intervention SWLS and MHC- SF scores. Statistical significance was set at alpha 0.05. In “Results”, the descriptive data is presented as means and standard deviations for overall pre- and post-program comparison and as means across different demographic and background categories, for the continuous data. Descriptive data is presented as proportions for categorical data in “Study Population”. The data analysis was conducted using SPSS version 28.
The research question guiding the inquiry and exploration in the qualitative study design is: Is the BECRW intervention effective in improving the participant’s satisfaction with life, emotional, social, and psychological well-being and confidence, facilitating their integration into society? While the quantitative study provided valuable numerical data and statistical analysis, it did not capture the context, personal experiences, and subjective perspectives of the participants (Sandelowski, 2010 ). The aim for using both approaches was to complement each method’s limitations and provide a more comprehensive understanding of the research objective as discussed in “Grand Research Question”. The sample size used in qualitative research methods is often smaller compared to quantitative research methods and does not tend to rely on hypothesis testing but rather is more inductive and emergent in its process (Boddy, 2016 ). A sample size of 20–30 participants is the common average sample size required to reach saturation and redundancy in qualitative research that utilizes in-depth interviews. In this study, 19 refugee women were interviewed.
In qualitative research, the selection of an appropriate interview technique is crucial to effectively capture the data that aligns with the study’s objectives. Cohen and Manion ( 1994 ) identified four interview techniques: structured, semi-structured/unstructured, non-directive, and focused. For this study, the investigative team purposefully chose semi-structured, open-ended interviews as the data collection method. Semi-structured, open-ended interviews were selected due to their flexibility and ability to gather rich and detailed information from participants. This interview format provided participants with the freedom to express their thoughts, experiences, and emotions openly, allowing for a deeper exploration of their perspectives. The open-ended nature of the interviews enabled participants to provide in-depth and comprehensive responses, shedding light on their lives before and after their involvement in the BECRW program.
A demographic questionnaire and observation through field notes were utilized alongside the interviews. The data collection process prioritized the protection of participants’ privacy. The informed consent form emphasized the confidentiality of the data and outlined the measures taken to safeguard participants’ identities. Participants were assured that only the team would have access to the data. They were assigned a participant study identification number (PXX) to de-identify the data, that were securely stored on a password-protected computer and accessible only to approved researchers. The semi-structured, open-ended interviews were conducted both virtually and in person, lasting approximately 60 min. A Zoom audio recording and auto-mated transcription were generated. The demographic questionnaire aimed to gather basic information about participants such as name, place of origin, education, and marital status. The team employed the active or moderate participatory observer role as defined by Spradley ( 2016 ) to generate a context for the interview paying attention to the participant’s setting, clothes, and body language.
The interview questions in this study were thoughtfully developed, drawing insights from the observations and field notes collected throughout the program, and the preliminary quantitative outcomes. The aim was to design questions that would comprehensively explore multiple dimensions of the participants’ experiences. The questions sought to gain insights into their daily routines, highlighting any changes observed during and post the program. Participants were encouraged to share their experiences of interacting with STEM researchers and graduate students, providing a deeper understanding of the program’s impact on their engagement with the academic community. Questions delved into the resources available to the participants for project development which allowed the investigative team to gain insight into the practical support and opportunities provided by the program. Participants were also prompted to reflect on how the program had influenced them personally and how it had affected their immediate family. These questions aimed to uncover the transformative potential of the educational program on both an individual and familial level. The interview questions explored the participants’ sharing of their program experiences with others in their communities and their role as potential agents of change. Finally, the questions invited participants to reflect on the whole program, providing an opportunity to share their thoughts and emotions about their overall experience. This allowed the team to capture the immediate and lasting effects of the program, as well as the participants’ perspectives on future participation in similar initiatives. To ensure the quality and rigor of this qualitative descriptive research, several trustworthiness criteria were employed. Four criteria were utilized: credibility, transferability, dependability, and confirmability. Credibility was established through prolonged engagement with participants, persistent observation, and peer debriefing (Sandelowski, 2000 ), which involved a thorough review and discussion of the findings. Transferability was achieved through a detailed description of the research process, allowing readers to assess the applicability of the results to other settings. Dependability and confirmability were ensured through audibility (Khatib, 2013 ), maintaining a clear trail of decision-making and research progression. Strategies such as coordination between investigators, cross-checking codes, and external auditing were employed to enhance the quality and rigor of the research (Creswell and Zhang, 2009 ; Sandelowski, 1986 ).
The researchers acknowledge that their positionality influences the research process and outcomes. Their backgrounds and experiences shape their interactions with participants and data interpretation. Recognizing the power dynamics inherent in working with a vulnerable population of refugee women, they adopted a participatory approach to ensure that the women’s voices are central to the analysis. One team member, having lived as a refugee, provided valuable insights that helped bridge the gap between researchers and participants. Each team member engaged in self-reflection aligning with Van Manen ( 2016 )’s “reflective journaling” to set aside biases. This practice, supported by Creswell and Poth ( 2016 ) and Patton ( 2014 ), aimed to create a balanced and authentic representation of the participants’ experiences.
The data analysis process involved a recursive and iterative approach, closely tied to the data collection phase. The analysis process for this qualitative study involved a systematic approach to derive emerging themes from the transcribed verbatim data as shown in Fig. 3 . After the Zoom automated transcription, the research team carefully reviewed and compared the transcriptions with the audio files to ensure accuracy. The analysis followed an inductive and bottom-up approach, focusing on understanding the meaning held by the participants. The researchers engaged in multiple reexaminations of the data, seeking a deeper understanding and making interpretations of the larger meaning. Marginal comments were placed on the text during these readings, and color-coded categories were created on a spreadsheet to record potential themes that emerged from the data. Both interview and observational data were considered during this process. The researchers further examined and discussed the developing themes among themselves, seeking agreement and refining the speculative themes. Additional perspectives from the research team members were sought to reevaluate, modify, or eliminate themes. This iterative process of analysis allowed for a thorough exploration and interpretation of the data, resulting in the identification of meaningful and representative themes.
Model of Qualitative Data Analysis, Creswell and Creswell ( 2017 ).
The quantitative results of the study indicate that there were slight improvements in the scores of participants’ subjective well-being measures after the implementation of the BECRW program as shown in Table 2 . Specifically, the scores on the SWLS increased from 5.15 to 5.17, although this change was not statistically significant ( t (18) = −0.11, p = 0.91). Similarly, there were improvements in eudaimonic well-being, both in terms of social well-being and psychological well-being, but these changes did not reach statistical significance. Social well-being increased from 4.55 to 4.77 ( t (18) = −1.62, p = 0.12), and psychological well-being increased from 4.92 to 5.19 ( t (18) = −1.79, p = 0.08). On the other hand, there were no significant changes in hedonic (emotional) well-being, which remained relatively stable throughout the study period ( t (18) = 0.00, p = 1.00). In the presented results, the standard deviation values for each characteristic were relatively high, indicating considerable variability in participants’ scores. This variability suggests that participants’ experiences and responses varied widely, which could be influenced by individual differences or external factors. It is important to note that while the observed changes were not statistically significant, they provide some indications of positive shifts in participants’ well-being following their participation in the BECRW program. Table 3 shows the effect size (Cohen’s d) and statistical power for the outcomes. It indicates small to medium effects across the scores, with notably low statistical power, highlighting the need for caution in interpreting the results due to potential under-powering of the study. Table 4 illustrates variations across different demographic and background variables. It highlights the influence of factors such as age, education, years in the USA, and employment status on participants’ subjective well-being. As explained earlier, with a larger sample size and by accounting for the control variables, the uncertainties can be reduced and significance of this study can be increased. These quantitative findings are complemented by qualitative results, that will be discussed in “Qualitative Results”.
The qualitative analysis revealed that participants felt isolated and detached before the program, but after the program they experienced personal transformation, felt empowered by the supportive environment, and developed a sense of belonging within the community. These themes suggest that the BECRW program was effective in fostering societal integration by addressing challenges, enabling personal growth, and cultivating community connections. The analysis of the data centered on three primary areas at two distinct time points, namely, before and after the program. These areas served as the basis for identifying the four emerging themes that capture the participants’ experiences in this study as shown in Fig. 4 . The key domains for theme extraction were as follows:
personal /daily schedule & activities,
academic/professional development, and
state of being
Emerging Themes and Sub-themes.
The four emerging themes were categorized into two phases: pre-program and post-program. These themes are presented and examined as follows:
Isolation and Detachment . The participants candidly shared their pre- program experiences, offering insights into their daily routines, social interactions, and life in the United States. These narratives collectively unveiled a prevailing theme of isolation and detachment, which stemmed from their refugee journeys, as detailed in Table 5 . Within this thematic exploration, participants eloquently recounted the hurdles they encountered while navigating unfamiliar terrain and striving to reconstruct their lives as refugees. They described the daily routines and solitude that consumed their lives, leaving little time for social interactions and meaningful connections. They expressed feelings of loneliness and the struggle to establish relationships in their new surroundings. The participants also faced uncertainty and ambiguity in pursuing their goals, lacking clarity and direction due to their circumstances. Overall, this theme highlights the profound impact of displacement and the challenges faced in building a sense of belonging in their new environment.
Personal Transformation . The second theme centers on personal transformation, underscored by the journey of growth and empowerment through the program as highlighted by the participants in Table 6 . They shared how the program equipped them with valuable business and sustainability knowledge and skills, resulting in a profound sense of pride, accomplishment, and boosted confidence. This newfound confidence fostered a growth mindset, motivating them to pursue entrepreneurial aspirations. Moreover, the program instilled a sense of purpose and motivation, propelling them to address sustainability challenges within their business ventures. Ultimately, this theme highlights the program’s transformative influence on the participants’ personal and entrepreneurial paths.
Empowering Ecosystem . The third theme revolves around the program’s empowering ecosystem, as revealed by the participants in Table 7 . They emphasized the invaluable support provided by the program, providing emotional and financial support, which created a safe and nurturing learning environment. The one-to-one mentorship and the sense of belonging to a supportive community were particularly highlighted. Furthermore, participants highlighted key milestones in their journey, such as participation in the conference and business pitch presentations, as pivotal sources of confidence and advancement. They praised the program’s non-traditional and personalized curriculum, which equipped them with practical knowledge and critical thinking skills, specifically tailored to address sustainability and climate change challenges. The transdisciplinary educational structure, merging STEM and social science disciplines, broadened their perspectives and aligned seamlessly with their career aspirations. In sum, this theme underscores the program’s role in providing a comprehensive and empowering ecosystem that significantly contributed to the participants’ growth and positive experiences.
Sense of Belonging . The final theme delves into participants’ profound sense of belonging, encompassing various dimensions as outlined in Table 8 . This study explores three critical facets of belonging: personal, professional, and within the broader host community. Participants described the meaningful connections and networks that flourished both within and beyond the program, enriching their experiences and facilitating personal growth. Moreover, they consistently expressed a deep commitment to social responsibility, a fervent desire to empower others, and a strong aspiration to make a positive impact in their communities. This sense of purpose and altruism further solidified their connection to the host community. The program’s supportive structure and nurturing learning environment played a pivotal role in creating a profound sense of safety, stability, and security among the participants. This theme serves as a poignant reminder of the paramount importance of fostering belonging and empowering individuals to chase their entrepreneurial dreams while actively contributing to the betterment of their communities.
The findings of this study illuminate the critical need for tailored and gender-specific interventions at the intersection of educational and entrepreneurial capacity building for refugees. Moreover, it emphasizes the importance of integrating an intersectional perspective in policies and programs for refugee women. By acknowledging the unique intersections of gender, migratory status, and climate vulnerability, interventions can be better tailored to address their specific needs and challenges. Thompson-Hall et al. ( 2016 ) highlight the importance of intersectional research in climate change adaptation, advocating for inclusive strategies that consider the diverse and overlapping vulnerabilities of different social groups. Similarly, Crenshaw ( 2013 ) underscores the need to empower those who are marginalized due to their intersecting identities, such as the refugee women population. To the best of our knowledge, there is a gap in the existing literature on the social integration and empowerment of refugee women into the host society through such targeted approaches. This study contributes to the refugee integration and refugee empowerment literature by developing and evaluating the effectiveness of a gender-specific, culturally sensitive, and community-focused program (BECRW). The non-traditional and transdisciplinary framework employed in this study focuses on the overall well-being, personal growth, and professional development of refugee women. It aligns with the broader key United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs), particularly those related to climate change, sustainability, and gender equality. By equipping these women, it empowers them to become valuable contributors to the host society and actively participate in building climate resilience within their communities.
In their systematic review article, Gower et al. ( 2022 ) emphasize the scarcity of intervention-focused studies in refugee integration, particularly those lacking a gender dimension. Among the 12 studies they reviewed, only three utilized a mixed methods approach, with three based in the U.S. Notably, five peer mentoring programs were tailored specifically to women, yet the majority of these studies involved fewer than 20 female refugee and migrant participants. They acknowledge difficulty in reaching the refugee community for participation in such initiatives. Only two programs combined group workshops with individual mentoring sessions, and nearly all interventions were conducted in person. In contrast, the BECRW program stands out as an educational, gender-focused intervention empowering refugee women with entrepreneurial skills. This program employs a mixed methods approach, capturing both numerical trends and qualitative insights. It targets refugee women in the U.S., recognizing and addressing their unique challenges such as limited employment opportunities and social isolation. One of the strengths of the BECRW program lies in its structure and curriculum, which combines theory-driven and research-based approaches. This program distinguishes itself through the synergy between STEM and social sciences disciplines. Notably, the BECRW program organized a conference where refugee women participants had the opportunity to showcase their work alongside scientific communities from various disciplines and levels, highlighting the program’s inclusivity and impact. The program was flexible and incorporated group activities, one-on-one mentoring, and hands-on experience. The entire BECRW program was conducted online, with support offered to those who wished to attend the conference in person.
Cheung and Phillimore ( 2017 ) conduct a pioneering quantitative analysis of integration outcomes among refugees in the United Kingdom (U.K.), focusing on broader integration and social outcomes. In contrast, this study specifically targets empowerment and well-being among refugee women by providing tailored instructional training and mentorship to address their specific needs and equip them with the skills and knowledge necessary for building entrepreneurial capacity. Street et al. ( 2022 ) explore the impact of refugee women entrepreneurs serving as mentors to others in the U.K., while Senthanar et al. ( 2021 ) investigate the motivations and challenges of entrepreneurship among Syrian refugee women in Canada, highlighting systemic barriers and gendered contexts that shape their entrepreneurial endeavors in industries like food/catering and tailoring. Similarly, Mangrio et al. ( 2019 ) and Spehar ( 2021 ) primarily discuss the challenges and barriers faced by refugee women without proposing solutions. In contrast, this study not only identifies these barriers but also contributes to the literature by proposing a solution through the development of the BECRW intervention. This intervention addresses both the technical and socio-cultural dimensions of entrepreneurship for refugee women by adopting a gender-focused, culturally embedded approach.
The mixed methods approach employed in this study was meticulously designed to address the unique needs and complexities of the study population, comprising the refugee women. Quantitatively, our findings indicate modest improvements across various dimensions of well-being and empowerment among participants following their participation with the BECRW program. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent limitations in establishing a causal relationship between the intervention and these positive outcomes. While the pre-post intervention design offers insights into changes over time, the absence of a control group, lack of randomization, not accounting for confounding variables and the small sample size warrant caution in attributing observed improvements solely to the intervention’s impact. Furthermore, the demographic heterogeneity within the study group, coupled with limited sample sizes across categories, poses challenges in drawing definitive inferences about which subgroup benefited most from the intervention. The surveys being conducted in English could have contributed to the high variability in responses among participants with similar demographic and background categories, possibly due to language barrier. Although no clear trends emerge from the quantitative data, this component lays a foundational understanding of the study population and justifies the mixed methods approach adopted.
Complementing the quantitative findings, the qualitative insights lend credibility and depth to the study’s outcomes and establish the effectiveness of the intervention. Participants’ narratives vividly illustrate the transformative impact of the BECRW program on their lives. Themes of empowerment, increased self-confidence, and a sense of belonging emerge prominently, reflecting the intervention’s success in fostering holistic well-being and empowerment, facilitating social integration among refugee women. Developing a sense of belonging is pivotal for the mental health, social connectedness, and well-being of refugee women, who have experienced displacement and trauma (Baumeister and Leary, 1995 ; Goodenow, 1992 ; Hagerty et al., 1992 ; Levett-Jonesand and Lathlean, 2008 ; Walton and Cohen, 2011 ). As they strive to establish a new life in the United States, overcoming emotional, financial, social, and cultural barriers, fostering a sense of belonging is crucial for their integration, adaptation, and ability to contribute to the host society. It is important to note that measuring integration success remains challenging due to the lack of standardized indicators. While research varies, both subjective feelings of belonging and objective factors like employment and education are essential. This study combines these elements, following Ager and Strang’s model (Macuchova and Rauhut, 2023 ), for a comprehensive view of integration. The qualitative findings indicate that refugee women aged between 28 and 50 years, with high English proficiency, college education, at least 5 years of residency in the U.S., and either employed or self-employed, benefited the most from the BECRW intervention. Out of the 19 participants who completed the program, 9 individuals fitted this profile. However, it is important to note these findings cannot be generalized beyond this study. Crucially, the qualitative data provide nuanced insights into the unique challenges and aspirations of participants, shedding light on the contextual factors influencing their experiences. Through the convergence of quantitative and qualitative data, this study offers a comprehensive understanding of the intervention’s multifaceted effects on refugee women.
Despite the promising findings and positive impacts of the BECRW program, it is essential to acknowledge several limitations that should inform future iterations and interventions. Firstly, the pre-program leveling educational opportunity primarily focused on digital fluency, potentially overlooking other essential skills needed for entrepreneurship. Expanding the pre-program preparation to encompass a broader range of educational aspects, such as business planning, financial literacy, and market analysis, would provide a more comprehensive foundation for participants. Secondly, the small sample size of the study poses a significant limitation, hindering the generalizability of the findings and the ability to draw robust quantitative conclusions. A larger and more diverse sample would enhance the reliability and validity of the results. Thirdly, utilizing testing instruments in the native languages of the participants would have minimized potential language barriers and enhanced the accuracy and reliability of the collected data. Furthermore, the scheduling of the program did not fully accommodate participants’ diverse time zones and work/family schedules. Adjusting the program’s daily schedule to better align with participants’ local time would have facilitated their full engagement and participation. In terms of geographic scope, the recruitment of participants from specific cities in Texas and Arizona limited the generalizability of the findings. Expanding the program to include participants from a wider range of locations would provide insights into the unique challenges faced by refugee women across different regions. Additionally, the limited follow-up period of three months after the program’s conclusion restricted the assessment of the program’s long-term impact on the participants. Extending the follow-up period would offer a more comprehensive understanding of the sustained effects of the intervention. Lastly, economic factors, such as access to capital and market opportunities, pose constraints on the program’s focus on entrepreneurship and sustainable business ventures. Addressing these economic barriers and providing ongoing support for participants’ business ventures beyond the program’s duration would enhance the program’s long-term impact and sustainability.
The BECRW program holds substantial promise for adaptation to address challenges faced by populations encountering unemployment, limited access to education or resources, discrimination, and socio-cultural barriers. Just as BECRW adopts a gender-focused approach to provide customized training, and mentorship, tailored to the specific needs of refugee women, interventions aimed at other marginalized groups should similarly consider the distinct circumstances, backgrounds, and needs of the target demographic. Immigrants, ethnic minorities, underserved communities, and those affected by conflict or natural disasters could particularly benefit from adapted versions of the BECRW. By leveraging the framework and methodologies of BECRW, tailored interventions could equip these populations with the necessary skills, resources, and support to initiate entrepreneurial ventures, fostering sustainable recovery and empowerment. Through careful identification of common challenges and adaptation of interventions to suit unique contexts, similar programs can be developed and implemented to advance economic empowerment, social inclusion, and sustainable development on a broader scale. Further research and collaboration across sectors are essential to refine and scale up these interventions, ultimately contributing to positive outcomes for marginalized populations worldwide.
This study explores the multifaceted challenges faced by female refugees and investigates the effectiveness of targeted interventions in fostering their integration and well-being within host societies. With the global refugee crisis escalating, understanding the unique needs of refugee women is imperative. Despite their resilience, refugee women encounter numerous obstacles, including limited access to education, employment, and social inclusion. In response to this pressing issue, the BECRW program was developed, aiming to empower refugee women in the southwestern United States through a transdisciplinary framework integrating STEM and social sciences disciplines through an educational-entrepreneurial intervention. This study evaluates the impact of the BECRW program on participants’ personal and professional development, employing a mixed methods approach to assess its effectiveness in enhancing well-being and social inclusion. By addressing the gender-specific aspects of refugee empowerment and integration, this research contributes to advancing United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals while providing valuable insights for policymakers, educators, and stakeholders seeking inclusive and empowering interventions for refugee women.
The data supporting this study’s findings are not publicly available due to privacy concerns and the confidentiality agreements made with participants. These restrictions are in place to protect participant identities and ensure that their information remains secure. However, access to de-identified data will be considered on a case-by-case basis for researchers who meet the criteria for access to confidential data, and with the appropriate ethical approvals in place. Requests for data access should be directed to MK at [email protected] or TP at [email protected], who will evaluate the requests in accordance with ethical guidelines and institutional policies.
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Funding for both the program and research study was provided by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Project ID: OR20220308/226351925A.
These authors contributed equally: Maissa Khatib, Tanya Purwar.
College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ, USA
Maissa Khatib, Rushabh Shah & Maricarmen Vizcaino
Mechanical Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
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MK, TP, and LC conceptualized the project. MK and TP collected quantitative and qualitative data. TP and MK conducted qualitative data analysis. TP, RS, and MV conducted quantitative data analysis. TP and MK wrote the original draft. TP and MK edited the manuscript. MK and LC supervised the project. MK and TP contributed equally. All named authors read and approved the manuscript.
Correspondence to Tanya Purwar .
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The authors declare no competing interests.
This study qualified as exempt from review under the federal guidelines [45 CFR 46.104(b)(2)]. Nevertheless, the research strictly adhered to ethical standards and guidelines set forth by the appropriate national and institutional committees governing human experimentation. The study protocol, encompassing methods, data collection procedures, and participant interactions, underwent a comprehensive review and received official approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB-1930009-1) at the College of Liberal Arts, University of Texas, El Paso. Ethical approval was provided by the committee chaired by Roberto Osegueda, Ph.D., Vice President for Research, and Lorraine Torres, Ed.D., MT(ASCP), IRB Chair. For further inquiries, the office can be contacted at (915) 747-6590.
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Khatib, M., Purwar, T., Shah, R. et al. Empowerment and integration of refugee women: a transdisciplinary approach. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 11 , 1277 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03723-w
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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03723-w
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