dissertation risk assessment

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Research risk assessment

It's the responsibility of the principal investigators (PI) and researchers to identify reasonably foreseeable risks associated with their research and control the risks so far as is reasonably practicable.

All participants and research assistants have the right to expect protection from physical, psychological, social, legal and economic harm at all times during an investigation. Certain research may also present reputational, legal and / or economic risks to the University.

As part of the ethical approval process for research involving human participants you are required to identify potential risks associated with your research and the action you will take to mitigate risk. You may be asked to submit your risk assessment.

The risk assessment process is a careful examination of what could cause harm, who/what could be harmed and how. It will help you to determine what risk control measures are needed and whether you are doing enough. 

Risk assessment responsibility

The PI and researchers need to take responsibility for all assessments associated with their projects. Occasionally you may need research workers or students to risk assess an aspect of the work and you will need to check the assessments are adequate and sign them off.

Risk assessors need to be competent and you’ll need to ensure they have adequate training and resource to do the assessments. There is risk assessment training available and help and advice help and advice help and advice from your Health and Safety adviser and safety specialists (for health and safety risks), or the REO Research Governance team for other risks. In some cases, the hazards are so unique to the research that the PI and their team might be the only people who know the work well enough to make valid judgements about the risk and justify their conclusions.

Risk assessment process

The risk assessment process is a careful examination of what could cause harm, who/what could be harmed and how. It will help you to determine what risk control measures are needed and whether you are doing enough.

To simplify the process you can use the health and safety risk assessment templates, risk estimation tool and guidance for all risks associated with your research project. Please refer to the research risk estimation guidance under how to carry out a risk assessment below to assist you. 

Research risks

Typical risks that need to be considered as part of research ethics are:

• Social risks: disclosures that could affect participants standing in the community, in their family, and their job.
• Legal risks: activities that could result in the participant, researchers and / or University committing an offence; activities that might lead to a participant disclosing criminal activity to a researcher which would necessitate reporting to enforcement authorities; activities that could result in a civil claim for compensation.
• Economic harm: financial harm to participant, researcher and / or University through disclosure or other event.
• Reputational risk: damage to public perception of University or the University/researchers’ reputation in the eyes of funders, the research community and / or the general public. 
• Safeguarding risks:   Risk to young people, vulnerable adults and / or researcher from improper behaviour, abuse or exploitation. Risk to researcher of being in a comprising situation, in which there might be accusations of improper behaviour.
• Health and safety risks: risks of harm to health, physical injury or psychological harm to participants or the researcher. Further information on health and safety risks is given below.

Health and safety risks

The potential hazards and risks in research can be many and varied. You will need to be competent and familiar with the work or know where to obtain expert advice to ensure you have identified reasonably foreseeable risks. Here are some common research hazards and risks:

• Location hazards Location hazards Location hazards and risks are associated with where the research is carried out. For example: fire; visiting or working in participant’s homes; working in remote locations and in high crime areas; overseas travel; hot, cold or extreme weather conditions; working on or by water. Also hazardous work locations, such as construction sites, confined spaces, roofs or laboratories. For overseas travel, you will need to check country / city specific information, travel health requirements and consider emergency arrangements as part of your research planning, by following the University’s overseas travel  health and safety standard .  
• Activity hazards Activity hazards Activity hazards and risks associated with the tasks carried out. For example: potentially mentally harmful activities; distressing and stressful work and content; driving; tripping, or slipping; falling from height; physically demanding work; lifting, carrying, pushing and pulling loads; night time and weekend working.
• Machinery and equipment Machinery and equipment Machinery and equipment . For example: ergonomic hazards, including computer workstations and equipment; contact with electricity; contact with moving, rotating, ejecting or cutting parts in machinery and instruments; accidental release of energy from machines and instruments.
• Chemicals and other hazardous substances . The use, production, storage, waste, transportation and accidental release of chemicals and hazardous substances; flammable, dangerous and explosive substances; asphyxiating gases; allergens; biological agents, blood and blood products. You’ll need to gather information about the amount, frequency and duration of exposure and carry out a COSHH or DSEAR assessment which will inform whether you may need health surveillance for yourself and / or your research participants.
• Physical agents Physical agents Physical agents . For example: excessive noise exposure, hand-arm vibration and whole body vibration; ionising radiation; lasers; artificial optical radiation and electromagnetic fields. You’ll need to gather information about the amount, frequency and duration of exposure inform whether you may need health surveillance for yourself and / or your research participants.

When to carry out a risk assessment

Carrying out initial risk assessments as part of the planning process will help you identify whether existing resources and facilities are adequate to ensure risk control, or if the project needs to be altered accordingly. It will also help you to identify potential costs that need to be considered as part of the funding bid.

Once the project is approved, research specific risk assessments need to be carried out before work starts.

The research may need ethical approval if there is significant risk to participants, researchers or the University.

How to carry out a risk assessment

The University standard on risk assessments provides guidance, tips on getting it right, as well as resources and the forms to help you produce suitable and sufficient risk assessments and must be used.

• Risk assessment template (.dotx)
• Flow chart to research risk assessment (.pdf)
• Research risk assessment: Risk estimation tool (.pdf)
• Example of a Social Science research risk assessment (.pdf)

Refer to carrying out a risk assessment carrying out a risk assessment carrying out a risk assessment for step by step guidance.

Risk assessments must relate to the actual work and must be monitored by the PI. If there are significant changes to the activities, locations, equipment or substances used, the risk assessment will need to reviewed, updated and the old version archived. Risk assessments should also consider the end of projects, arrangements for waste disposal, equipment, controlled area decommission and emergencies. 

Things to consider:

• The risks may be specialist in nature or general. Information can found from legislation, sector guidance, safety data sheets, manufacturers equipment information, research documents, forums and health and safety professionals.
• Practical research might involve less well-known hazards. Do you or your team have the expertise to assess the risk adequately? Do you know who to go to for expert advice?
• The capabilities, training, knowledge, skills and experience of the project team members. Are they competent or are there gaps?
• In fast changing research environments, is there a need to carry out dynamic risk assessments? Are they understood and recorded?
• The right personal protective equipment for the hazards identified and training in how to use it.
• Specific Occupational Health vaccinations, health surveillance and screening requirements identified and undertaken. With physical agents and substances you’ll need to make an informed decision about the amount, frequency and duration of exposure. If you need help with this contact Health and Safety.
• Associated activities: storage, transport/travel, cleaning, maintenance, foreseeable emergencies (eg spillages), decommissioning and disposal.
• The safe design, testing and maintenance of the facilities and equipment.
• Planned and preventative maintenance of general plant and specialist equipment.

These risk assessments relate to the actual work and must be monitored by the PI. If there are significant changes to the activities, locations, equipment or substances used, the risk assessment will need to reviewed, updated and the old version archived. Risk assessments should also consider the end of projects, arrangements for waste disposal, equipment and controlled area decommission and emergencies.

Training 

If you would like training on completing a risk assessment, please book onto our Risk Assessment Essentials course via HR Organiser. If you are unable to access this, please email [email protected] 

• Carrying out a risk assessment Carrying out a risk assessment Carrying out a risk assessment
• People especially at risk People especially at risk People especially at risk
• IOSH/USHA/UCEA guidance on managing health and safety in research (.pdf) 
• Research governance: Ethical approval

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Assessing Risk in Dissertation Research

When seeking Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval for your dissertation research, you will need to provide an assessment of the risk your participants may face. Risk refers to the potential for negative outcomes that participants may experience as a result of being in your study. It is your obligation as a researcher to minimize participants’ risk as much as possible. As a part of their approval decision, the IRB weighs the risks of the study against the potential benefits of the study. So, if the potential benefits of your study do not outweigh the risks, your study may not get approved. Here, we discuss some issues to consider when assessing risk in your study.

First, it is important to note that ALL studies involve risk. Many students mistakenly state in their proposals and IRB applications that their study involves no risk. Even if you are doing something simple and seemingly harmless, such as a survey, there will still be some degree of risk involved in the study. For instance, if your survey covers a sensitive topic, your participants may experience psychological stress or anxiety. If you are collecting any personal information (such as names or e-mail addresses), there is a possibility that participants’ personal information could be exposed. When people think about risk, they may be inclined to only consider risk of physical harm. However, when conducting research, many types of risk need to be considered, including risk to physical, psychological, emotional, economic, and social wellbeing.

So, how do you assess the level of risk in your study? Risk often is assessed in relation to the risk inherent to normal daily life. In other words, is the potential for harm greater than what the participants would encounter if they were not in the study and were just carrying on with their lives as usual? If the answer is no, then your study involves only minimal risk. The United States Department of Health and Human Services specifically considers research as having minimal risk when “the probability and magnitude of harm or discomfort anticipated in the research are not greater in and of themselves than those ordinarily encountered in daily life or during the performance of routine physical or psychological examinations or tests” (see hhs.gov). Much dissertation research in the social sciences involves minimal risk. In minimal risk studies, researchers need to take simple, reasonable measures to mitigate risk. This includes fully informing participants about the nature of the research and their rights as participants, as well as putting proper safeguards in place to secure their data and personal information.

If your study involves more than minimal risk, you may need to implement special procedures to mitigate risk. Such procedures will vary depending on the risks specific to the study. For example, if your study involves survey questions that could cause significant psychological distress, you may need to provide psychological counseling resources to your participants. In more extreme cases, you may even need to have personnel present during data collection who are trained to handle incidents of physical harm, discomfort, or psychological distress. While greater-than-minimal-risk studies will receive greater scrutiny from the IRB, such studies can gain approval with proper collaboration between the researcher and the IRB reviewers.

We work with graduate students every day and know what it takes to get your research approved.

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Dissertation Risk Assessment Form 201819

UCL Department of Geography

Fieldwork Risk Assessment - Forms and Files

All the forms and files you'll need for your Fieldwork Risk Assessment

Staff/Research Fieldwork Risk Assessment Template

Use this form in conjunction with the information on the hazard tables  to produce a risk assessment for fieldwork.

Download the form (.doc)

Dissertation Fieldwork Risk assessment template

This file should be used by Undergraduate and Masters Students. It should be used in conjunction with the "hazards tables" found under risk assessment preparation.

Geography Generic Risk Assessment            

This form addresses the hazards, risks and control measures associated with most human geography research, and can be used in place of project-specific risk assessments, subject to some exclusions. If you think these additional risks are applicable to your project, you should complete a full project risk assessment in addition to using this generic form. This form can be used in the initial stages of PhD research as a general risk assessment before the full project has been mapped out. This is not suitable for physical geography fieldwork.

Identifying Cost Implications of Safety Management

This form is to be used as a preliminary assessment of the cost implications of the safety management of a project and to identify the source of funding

Dissertation risk assessment for computer-based projects

This risk assessment should be used where the project involves only  the use of computer equipment.

Dissertation risk assessment for microscope-based projects

This risk assessment should be used where the project involves prolonged microscope work

General Enquiries 

Email:  [email protected]

Telephone: +44 (0)20 7679 0500

Department of Geography University College London North-West Wing Gower Street London WC1E 6BT

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Dissertation guidelines

General guidance.

Your dissertation gives you an opportunity to write a substantial piece of academic work on a topic of interest to you. It is an opportunity to produce a work of scholarship, using the academic skills you have developed.

This guidance is designed to help you write your MSc dissertation. Please make sure that you also look at any instructions or guidance specific to your programme. Any programme specific information or requirements takes precidence over this more general guidance. 

Regardless of topic, your dissertation should demonstrate the following skills:

Defining and outlining a research topic

Defining a clear research question

Identifying salient issues

Finding or generating relevant information

Evaluating the information's reliability and validity

Weighing up the evidence on all sides of a debate

Arriving at a well-argued conclusion

Organising and presenting the results of your work critically, cogently, and coherently

There are two major forms of dissertations:

A piece of empirical research, conducted on a topic or issue relevant to health policy

A literature-based long essay, providing analysis of specific research question of relevance to health policy

Which type of dissertation you choose to write is up to you, but do check with your Academic Mentor that your project fulfills the criteria for your programme.

Making your dissertation stand out

Research topic and research question.

Your first task is to choose a topic that interests you. It should be a manageable topic - one that has not been researched excessively, nor so under-researched that there is no literature available for you to build on. Your Academic Mentor will be able to help you with this.

Having read the relevant literature, you need to focus more specifically on a research question. This will ensure that your dissertation has clear focus. A reserach question is not the same as your research topic but rather a specific question that you want to answer. Your research question needs to be defined with care, and your Academic Mentor can help you. 

Methodology

When choosing your topic and defining your research question, you will also have to decide on the conceptual approach - or methodology - you will use to answer your question. Methodology concerns the relationship between your theoretical stance and the manner in which you conduct your investigation. Most health policy dissertations do not fit into any one methodological category or paradigm. However, they are likely to fall in one of three schools of thought:

Empiricist : Dissertations which involve the use of empirical evidence even if it is existing evidence reported in the relevant literature. Empiricism is an approach to evidence that is aligned to the conventions associated with the natural sciences. It is concerned with explaining external realities from an objective standpoint.

Interpretive : Interpretivism is concerned with understanding the nature or meaning of the social world from the subjective standpoint of the people involved. It tends to build on processes of qualitative observation.

Critical or criticalist : Any approach can result in criticism of health policy, but a critical(ist) approach is one that is grounded in the analysis of conflict or relationships of power. A critical(ist) approach may draw on elements of either or both of the other approaches but it is sceptical of empiricism and interpretivism because they do not necessarily question the underlying basis of the status quo.

You are encouraged to take any of these approaches. You are required to explicitly reflect within the dissertation on the basis of your approach.

How to structure your dissertation

The following structure includes the elements that are normally expected in an MSc dissertation. You don't have to follow it blindly, but use it as a starting point for thinking about your structure. Remember to ask for advice from your supervisor about which exact structure is right for your dissertation.

If you are doing a piece of empirical research, a common structure is as follows:

Introduction, including the research question and structure of essay

Literature review and policy context

Methodology and research methods

Findings and analysis

Discussion and implication for policy

The abstract outlines what you did and what your key findings were.

Introduction

Your introduction should give details of the research topic you have decided to focus on, why the topic is of interest, what the gaps in current knowledge are, how your dissertation adds value to previous research (i.e., what is new). It should also include your research question and any sub-set of questions. Your introduction should provide a brief overview of the structure of your dissertation (i.e. what different sections/chapters will focus on).

The literature review should include literature that is pertinent to your research topic and the policy context. It should critically evaluate earlier work in the field, paying due attention to contributions, and to any methodological problems and limitations involved. Your literature review might draw on, among others: policy documents, legislation, statistics from surveys and government sources, research studies, relevant theory, etc.

Having identified gaps in the literature and ways in which you can add value to the research, you need to present your research question and explain how the answer will add to current knowledge. This is one of the most important parts of your dissertation as it links with your methods and can help with structuring your dissertation.

Give details of the methods you have used (sample, procedure etc.). Why have you used these methods? How do they enable you to answer the research question? Why are you using a quantitative or qualitative approach? What are the strengths and limitations of your methods? To what extent, if any, will you be able to generalise on the basis of your research?

If you are doing primary research you need to say how you obtained your sample, how you have ensured anonymity of participants, and address any other ethical issues. You need to explain how you retrieved data, e.g. via interviews or questionnaires. If you are doing secondary data analysis you need to describe the data set you are using and any relevant variables.

If you carry out empirical work, remember to get informed consent and ensure confidentiality (i.e. do not use actual names of individuals, organisations, institutions etc.). Please refer to the  Research Ethics Policy and Procedures  and the  Code of Research Conduct .

Your findings can be presented in different ways and will vary depending on whether your research uses quantitative or qualitative methods.It is key that you explain the steps of your analysis and how you arrived at your findings. 

Discussion and Conclusion

The discussion links your findings with the research question. 

The conclusions drawn should be substantiated from the body of the dissertation. What are the implications for policy? Are there implications for future research?

Length of your dissertation

Dissertations for MSc International Health Policy, MSc International Health Policy (Health Economics), and MSc Global Health Policy should be no more than 6,000 words. For MSc Health Policy, Planning and Financing, your dissertation should not exceed 10,000 words in length. 

The reference list - bibliography - is not included in the word limit. 

Examiners may refer to your appendices during marking, but you should not include any material in this section that you expect to be read and contribute to your final mark.

Presentation and layout

How you layout and present your work matters. It can help make your text easier to comprehend  - or it can make it more difficult. Try not to add too much to a page and leave so space for the reader to breathe. 

Headings and sub-headings will help to organise and structure your argument and will also improve the presentation. Main headings should be in uppercase and sub-headings in title case. For example:

THE HISTORY OF THE ENGLISH NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE

Health Policy and Planning Challenges in the 21st Century

Tables and figures

If you use tables, graphs, and figures they must be clearly numbered, titled and sourced. Using the chapter number as a prefix will help the reader navigate the tables. Tables in chapter 2 will, therefore, be numbered Table 2.1, Table 2.2 etc. Figures will be numbered in the same way, i.e. Figure 2.1, Figure 2.2 etc.

Formatting guidelines

Make sure you check any programme-specific instructions and consider the guidance of your Academic Mentor. Some general guidelines are:

Try not to put too much on one page

Use 1.5 or double-spacing

Use 3 cm on all margins

Number your pages

Leave a blank line between paragraphs

Check your spelling and punctuation

Stick to one or maximum two fonts

• Use bold and italics sparingly and consistently

Citation, referencing and plagiarism

Please make sure you use a suitable citation and referencing system. The library and LSE Life runs reguarly workshops that will help you get it right. You can find upcoming workshops here . 

If you don't use a proper citation and referencing system, you run the risk of plagiarism. LSE takes plagiarism very seriously and you should always ensure that your work is all your own. There are ways to avoid unintentional plagiarism. Please read our guide here .

Support from your Academic Mentor

At the start of your programme, you will be assigned an Academic Mentor who will also be your dissertation supervisor. The Academic Mentor will guide and assist you in your learning development and give you guidance and feedback. You need to reach out to your mentor to schedule your meetings. If you do not approach your Academic Mentor, he or she may not necessarily reach out to you. It is your obligation to take the initiative.

When you have found a topic for your dissertation, your supervision will consist of three 30 minute individual meetings between you and your Academic Mentor. It is up to you to make the most of the meetings so you cover a range of topics and get the feedback and advice from your Mentor that you need. The meetings should take place during Lent and Summer terms, with the third and final meeting no later than mid-July.

Your Academic Mentor can help you with how you approach and cover your topic, which research questions to ask, and how to structure your dissertation. It is the your responsibility to submit material before your meetings so your Mentor has time to prepare for the meeting. We also recommend that you list any topics or questions you want to discuss, so you can make the most of your time together. Send these one week ahead of the meeting if at all possible. In one of your meetings, your Mentor will give you feedback on a 1,000 word summary or outline of your dissertation.

When you have decided on a topic for your dissertation, you must submit the Dissertation Proposal Form which you will find on Moodle. During the course of the academic year, your teachers and Academic Mentor will give you more information about the dissertation requirements and expectations. 

Please do not expect your Mentor to give meticulous comments on drafts: the purpose of the dissertation is to give you a chance to show your capacity for contributing to academic discussion and debate, and it should be your own effort.

After the end of Summer Term, you are expected to be able to complete your dissertation without further guidance. Do not rely on your Academic Mentor as he or she will not be available for meetings or feedback outside of term time. 

Availability of past MSc dissertations

The Department makes a selection of the highest quality dissertations available for students to access for inspiration. Please contact your Programme Manager for details.

Deadline for submission

You must submit your dissertation  on or before 28 August 2019 at 12.00 (midday)  by  uploading an electronic copy under the correct assignment on the relevant Moodle page . If you are a part-time student, this applies to the August following your second year of study. 

Please also refer to the summative coursework submission guidelines in your Programme Handbook.

Personal safety and risk assessment

LSE policy and good practice require a risk assessment when you engage in academic work away from LSE which creates 'serious additional risk'. For some writing a dissertation involves poring over the latest Government policies, but if your dissertation means going out to interview stakeholders and policy makers you will need to do a risk assessment. 

To ensure your personal safety, please keep the follwing in mind at all times:

Your fieldwork is an important part of your dissertation. However, you should never do anything or go anywhere that you believe would put you at personal risk.

You should always ensure that you let someone know where you are going, when you are planning to return, and when you have returned.

If you are going to interview stakeholder groups take due care. Where possible go with someone else or hold focus groups. Do not put yourself at risk in order to obtain information. It is not worth it.

Use common sense at all times when thinking about where and how to gather your information and always pay attention to your own health and safety.

If you are travelling to a country where you are not a citizen and have no right to health care you should take out insurance to cover your costs, should you fall ill or require some form of assistance. Seek advice from the Students' Union or from travel companies.

If you are travelling to a country where you are not normally resident you should check that you have all of your immunisations current and do not require any further medical treatment before you travel. It is worth seeking advice from the Travel Clinic which is in Mortimer Market (off Capper Street), London WC1E 6AU; this is part of the Outpatients Clinic of the Hospital for Tropical Diseases. Country-specific information is also available on the  Department of Health  website.

Finally, you should check with the  British Foreign and Commonwealth Office  travel advice web pages for specific information regarding the country to which you are travelling.

We expect all students to behave responsibly and comply with the above advice. LSE cannot accept responsibility for problems you encounter as a result of failure to do so.

Please discuss any risk assessment issues of your research with your Academic Mentor before embarking on the research.

Research ethics

The Department of Health Policy promotes the highest ethical standards in the research undertaken by both our staff and students. You must discuss the ethical implications of your research with your Academic Mentor. You may need to complete a research ethics checklist and a research ethics review before doing your research.  These are available here .

It is a requirement that dissertations that are based on data directly gathered from human participants must include a statement to demonstrate that the research has been conducted in accordance with LSE ethical principles.

Certain overseas governments have procedures for the approval of all or any research that directly involves their citizens. Before carrying out any research in such countries, you must make sure you have the necessary permits and approvals. 

In the UK, any research that involves patients of the UK National Health Service must have approval by a Local Research Ethics Committee. In addition, the following research also need ethical approval:

Research involving vulnerable groups or sensitive topics

Research involving groups where permission of a gatekeeper is required for access to members

Research conducted without full informed consent

Research involving access to records of confidential information

Research which would induce unacceptable psychological stress, anxiety, pain or humiliation

In the wider context of research, there is an ethical imperative that people should not be objectified as the 'subjects' of research, but that, wherever possible, they should be empowered as participants in the research process. Ideally, this mean that service users and the members of disadvantaged groups should have a say in how research is designed and conducted. At the very least, it means that you, as a researcher, have a responsibility to fairly and accurately represent the interests and the voices of the participants.

Please make sure you familiarise yourself with LSE's ethical guidelines and code of conduct before doing any research or contacting potential participants in your research.  You can find everything you need to know here . And if you have any questions or concerns, discuss them with your Academic Mentor. 

Plagiarism How to avoid plagiarism in your academic work

Exams Make sure you have a look at our guidelines on examinations and assessments

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Home / Resources / ISACA Journal / Issues / 2021 / Volume 2 / Risk Assessment and Analysis Methods

Risk assessment and analysis methods: qualitative and quantitative.

A risk assessment determines the likelihood, consequences and tolerances of possible incidents. “Risk assessment is an inherent part of a broader risk management strategy to introduce control measures to eliminate or reduce any potential risk- related consequences.” 1 The main purpose of risk assessment is to avoid negative consequences related to risk or to evaluate possible opportunities.

It is the combined effort of:

• “…[I]dentifying and analyzing possible future events that could adversely affect individuals, assets, processes and/or the environment (i.e.,risk analysis)”
• “…[M]aking judgments about managing and tolerating risk on the basis of a risk analysis while considering influencing factors (i.e., risk evaluation)” 2

Relationships between assets, processes, threats, vulnerabilities and other factors are analyzed in the risk assessment approach. There are many methods available, but quantitative and qualitative analysis are the most widely known and used classifications. In general, the methodology chosen at the beginning of the decision-making process should be able to produce a quantitative explanation about the impact of the risk and security issues along with the identification of risk and formation of a risk register. There should also be qualitative statements that explain the importance and suitability of controls and security measures to minimize these risk areas. 3

In general, the risk management life cycle includes seven main processes that support and complement each other ( figure 1 ):

• Determine the risk context and scope, then design the risk management strategy.
• Choose the responsible and related partners, identify the risk and prepare the risk registers.
• Perform qualitative risk analysis and select the risk that needs detailed analysis.
• Perform quantitative risk analysis on the selected risk.
• Plan the responses and determine controls for the risk that falls outside the risk appetite.
• Implement risk responses and chosen controls.
• Monitor risk improvements and residual risk.

Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis Techniques

Different techniques can be used to evaluate and prioritize risk. Depending on how well the risk is known, and if it can be evaluated and prioritized in a timely manner, it may be possible to reduce the possible negative effects or increase the possible positive effects and take advantage of the opportunities. 4 “Quantitative risk analysis tries to assign objective numerical or measurable values” regardless of the components of the risk assessment and to the assessment of potential loss. Conversely, “a qualitative risk analysis is scenario-based.” 5

Qualitative Risk The purpose of qualitative risk analysis is to identify the risk that needs detail analysis and the necessary controls and actions based on the risk’s effect and impact on objectives. 6 In qualitative risk analysis, two simple methods are well known and easily applied to risk: 7

• Keep It Super Simple (KISS) —This method can be used on narrow-framed or small projects where unnecessary complexity should be avoided and the assessment can be made easily by teams that lack maturity in assessing risk. This one-dimensional technique involves rating risk on a basic scale, such as very high/high/medium/low/very.
• Probability/Impact —This method can be used on larger, more complex issues with multilateral teams that have experience with risk assessments. This two-dimensional technique is used to rate probability and impact. Probability is the likelihood that a risk will occur. The impact is the consequence or effect of the risk, normally associated with impact to schedule, cost, scope and quality. Rate probability and impact using a scale such as 1 to 10 or 1 to 5, where the risk score equals the probability multiplied by the impact.

Qualitative risk analysis can generally be performed on all business risk. The qualitative approach is used to quickly identify risk areas related to normal business functions. The evaluation can assess whether peoples’ concerns about their jobs are related to these risk areas. Then, the quantitative approach assists on relevant risk scenarios, to offer more detailed information for decision-making. 8 Before making critical decisions or completing complex tasks, quantitative risk analysis provides more objective information and accurate data than qualitative analysis. Although quantitative analysis is more objective, it should be noted that there is still an estimate or inference. Wise risk managers consider other factors in the decision-making process. 9

Although a qualitative risk analysis is the first choice in terms of ease of application, a quantitative risk analysis may be necessary. After qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis can also be applied. However, if qualitative analysis results are sufficient, there is no need to do a quantitative analysis of each risk.

Quantitative Risk A quantitative risk analysis is another analysis of high-priority and/or high-impact risk, where a numerical or quantitative rating is given to develop a probabilistic assessment of business-related issues. In addition, quantitative risk analysis for all projects or issues/processes operated with a project management approach has a more limited use, depending on the type of project, project risk and the availability of data to be used for quantitative analysis. 10

The purpose of a quantitative risk analysis is to translate the probability and impact of a risk into a measurable quantity. 11 A quantitative analysis: 12

• “Quantifies the possible outcomes for the business issues and assesses the probability of achieving specific business objectives”
• “Provides a quantitative approach to making decisions when there is uncertainty”
• “Creates realistic and achievable cost, schedule or scope targets”

Consider using quantitative risk analysis for: 13

• “Business situations that require schedule and budget control planning”
• “Large, complex issues/projects that require go/no go decisions”
• “Business processes or issues where upper management wants more detail about the probability of completing on schedule and within budget”

The advantages of using quantitative risk analysis include: 14

• Objectivity in the assessment
• Powerful selling tool to management
• Direct projection of cost/benefit
• Flexibility to meet the needs of specific situations
• Flexibility to fit the needs of specific industries
• Much less prone to arouse disagreements during management review
• Analysis is often derived from some irrefutable facts

THE MOST COMMON PROBLEM IN QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT IS THAT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH DATA TO BE ANALYZED.

To conduct a quantitative risk analysis on a business process or project, high-quality data, a definite business plan, a well-developed project model and a prioritized list of business/project risk are necessary. Quantitative risk assessment is based on realistic and measurable data to calculate the impact values that the risk will create with the probability of occurrence. This assessment focuses on mathematical and statistical bases and can “express the risk values in monetary terms, which makes its results useful outside the context of the assessment (loss of money is understandable for any business unit). 15  The most common problem in quantitative assessment is that there is not enough data to be analyzed. There also can be challenges in revealing the subject of the evaluation with numerical values or the number of relevant variables is too high. This makes risk analysis technically difficult.

There are several tools and techniques that can be used in quantitative risk analysis. Those tools and techniques include: 16

• Heuristic methods —Experience-based or expert- based techniques to estimate contingency
• Three-point estimate —A technique that uses the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic values to determine the best estimate
• Decision tree analysis —A diagram that shows the implications of choosing various alternatives
• Expected monetary value (EMV) —A method used to establish the contingency reserves for a project or business process budget and schedule
• Monte Carlo analysis —A technique that uses optimistic, most likely and pessimistic estimates to determine the business cost and project completion dates
• Sensitivity analysis —A technique used to determine the risk that has the greatest impact on a project or business process
• Fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) —The analysis of a structured diagram that identifies elements that can cause system failure

There are also some basic (target, estimated or calculated) values used in quantitative risk assessment. Single loss expectancy (SLE) represents the money or value expected to be lost if the incident occurs one time, and an annual rate of occurrence (ARO) is how many times in a one-year interval the incident is expected to occur. The annual loss expectancy (ALE) can be used to justify the cost of applying countermeasures to protect an asset or a process. That money/value is expected to be lost in one year considering SLE and ARO. This value can be calculated by multiplying the SLE with the ARO. 17 For quantitative risk assessment, this is the risk value. 18

USING BOTH APPROACHES CAN IMPROVE PROCESS EFFICIENCY AND HELP ACHIEVE DESIRED SECURITY LEVELS.

By relying on factual and measurable data, the main benefits of quantitative risk assessment are the presentation of very precise results about risk value and the maximum investment that would make risk treatment worthwhile and profitable for the organization. For quantitative cost-benefit analysis, ALE is a calculation that helps an organization to determine the expected monetary loss for an asset or investment due to the related risk over a single year.

For example, calculating the ALE for a virtualization system investment includes the following:

• Virtualization system hardware value: US$1 million (SLE for HW)
• Virtualization system management software value: US$250,000 (SLE for SW)
• Vendor statistics inform that a system catastrophic failure (due to software or hardware) occurs one time every 10 years (ARO = 1/10 = 0.1)
• ALE for HW = 1M * 1 = US$100,000
• ALE for SW = 250K * 0.1 = US$25,000

In this case, the organization has an annual risk of suffering a loss of US$100,000 for hardware or US$25,000 for software individually in the event of the loss of its virtualization system. Any implemented control (e.g., backup, disaster recovery, fault tolerance system) that costs less than these values would be profitable.

Some risk assessment requires complicated parameters. More examples can be derived according to the following “step-by-step breakdown of the quantitative risk analysis”: 19

• Conduct a risk assessment and vulnerability study to determine the risk factors.
• Determine the exposure factor (EF), which is the percentage of asset loss caused by the identified threat.
• Based on the risk factors determined in the value of tangible or intangible assets under risk, determine the SLE, which equals the asset value multiplied by the exposure factor.
• Evaluate the historical background and business culture of the institution in terms of reporting security incidents and losses (adjustment factor).
• Estimate the ARO for each risk factor.
• Determine the countermeasures required to overcome each risk factor.
• Add a ranking number from one to 10 for quantifying severity (with 10 being the most severe) as a size correction factor for the risk estimate obtained from company risk profile.
• Determine the ALE for each risk factor. Note that the ARO for the ALE after countermeasure implementation may not always be equal to zero. ALE (corrected) equals ALE (table) times adjustment factor times size correction.
• Calculate an appropriate cost/benefit analysis by finding the differences before and after the implementation of countermeasures for ALE.
• Determine the return on investment (ROI) based on the cost/benefit analysis using internal rate of return (IRR).
• Present a summary of the results to management for review.

Using both approaches can improve process efficiency and help achieve desired security levels. In the risk assessment process, it is relatively easy to determine whether to use a quantitative or a qualitative approach. Qualitative risk assessment is quick to implement due to the lack of mathematical dependence and measurements and can be performed easily. Organizations also benefit from the employees who are experienced in asset/processes; however, they may also bring biases in determining probability and impact. Overall, combining qualitative and quantitative approaches with good assessment planning and appropriate modeling may be the best alternative for a risk assessment process ( figure 2 ). 20

Qualitative risk analysis is quick but subjective. On the other hand, quantitative risk analysis is optional and objective and has more detail, contingency reserves and go/no-go decisions, but it takes more time and is more complex. Quantitative data are difficult to collect, and quality data are prohibitively expensive. Although the effect of mathematical operations on quantitative data are reliable, the accuracy of the data is not guaranteed as a result of being numerical only. Data that are difficult to collect or whose accuracy is suspect can lead to inaccurate results in terms of value. In that case, business units cannot provide successful protection or may make false-risk treatment decisions and waste resources without specifying actions to reduce or eliminate risk. In the qualitative approach, subjectivity is considered part of the process and can provide more flexibility in interpretation than an assessment based on quantitative data. 21 For a quick and easy risk assessment, qualitative assessment is what 99 percent of organizations use. However, for critical security issues, it makes sense to invest time and money into quantitative risk assessment. 22 By adopting a combined approach, considering the information and time response needed, with data and knowledge available, it is possible to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of the risk assessment process and conform to the organization’s requirements.

1 ISACA ® , CRISC Review Manual, 6 th Edition , USA, 2015, https://store.isaca.org/s/store#/store/browse/detail/a2S4w000004Ko8ZEAS 2 Ibid. 3 Schmittling, R.; A. Munns; “Performing a Security Risk Assessment,” ISACA ® Journal , vol. 1, 2010, https://www.isaca.org/resources/isaca-journal/issues 4 Bansal,; "Differentiating Quantitative Risk and Qualitative Risk Analysis,” iZenBridge,12 February 2019, https://www.izenbridge.com/blog/differentiating-quantitative-risk-analysis-and-qualitative-risk-analysis/ 5 Tan, D.; Quantitative Risk Analysis Step-By-Step , SANS Institute Information Security Reading Room, December 2020, https://www.sans.org/reading-room/whitepapers/auditing/quantitative-risk-analysis-step-by-step-849 6 Op cit Bansal 7 Hall, H.; “Evaluating Risks Using Qualitative Risk Analysis,” Project Risk Coach, https://projectriskcoach.com/evaluating-risks-using-qualitative-risk-analysis/ 8 Leal, R.; “Qualitative vs. Quantitative Risk Assessments in Information Security: Differences and Similarities,” 27001 Academy, 6 March 2017, https://advisera.com/27001academy/blog/2017/03/06/qualitative-vs-quantitative-risk-assessments-in-information-security/ 9 Op cit Hall 10 Goodrich, B.; “Qualitative Risk Analysis vs. Quantitative Risk Analysis,” PM Learning Solutions, https://www.pmlearningsolutions.com/blog/qualitative-risk-analysis-vs-quantitative-risk-analysis-pmp-concept-1 11 Meyer, W. ; “Quantifying Risk: Measuring the Invisible,” PMI Global Congress 2015—EMEA, London, England, 10 October 2015, https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/quantitative-risk-assessment-methods-9929 12 Op cit Goodrich 13 Op cit Hall 14 Op cit Tan 15 Op cit Leal 16 Op cit Hall 17 Tierney, M.; “Quantitative Risk Analysis: Annual Loss Expectancy," Netwrix Blog, 24 July 2020, https://blog.netwrix.com/2020/07/24/annual-loss-expectancy-and-quantitative-risk-analysis 18 Op cit Leal 19 Op cit Tan 20 Op cit Leal 21 ISACA ® , Conductin g a n IT Security Risk Assessment, USA, 2020, https://store.isaca.org/s/store#/store/browse/detail/a2S4w000004KoZeEAK 22 Op cit Leal

Volkan Evrin, CISA, CRISC, COBIT 2019 Foundation, CDPSE, CEHv9, ISO 27001-22301-20000 LA

Has more than 20 years of professional experience in information and technology (I&T) focus areas including information systems and security, governance, risk, privacy, compliance, and audit. He has held executive roles on the management of teams and the implementation of projects such as information systems, enterprise applications, free software, in-house software development, network architectures, vulnerability analysis and penetration testing, informatics law, Internet services, and web technologies. He is also a part-time instructor at Bilkent University in Turkey; an APMG Accredited Trainer for CISA, CRISC and COBIT 2019 Foundation; and a trainer for other I&T-related subjects. He can be reached at [email protected] .

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Dissertation (Risk Management)

Module overview.

The dissertation stage of your Postgraduate programme involves an extended, independent investigation of a topic of your own choosing and the preparation of a 15,000 word dissertation describing your work.

You will attend 10 sessions where you will work through the different parts and components of a dissertation such as literature review, methodology, references, etc., which will help you to write your dissertation.

Essentially, the dissertation is a test of your ability to create and investigate, on your own initiative, a text which demonstrates a Masters level understanding of a particular subject issue.

Aims and Objectives

Learning outcomes, subject specific intellectual and research skills.

Having successfully completed this module you will be able to:

• ensure that your own ideas and analysis are a prominent part of your dissertation;
• demonstrate the ability to test ideas including the application of models as appropriate, using a suitable research design, methodologies, measurements and techniques of analysis;
• evaluate critically current research and advanced scholarship in the discipline
• demonstrate the ability to synthesise ideas and research findings.
• present a clear, logical, and coherent line of argument throughout your dissertation;
• demonstrate the ability to plan, execute and report a significant piece of research or creative work with at least some element of originality;
• evaluate methodologies and develop critiques of them and, where appropriate, to propose new hypotheses;
• demonstrate the ability to formulate and test new ideas from a variety of approaches and justify the foundation of those ideas;
• provide in depth, critical reflection in your analysis and discussion of results;
• demonstrate the ability to present ideas and research findings in a well-structured and convincing way;

Knowledge and Understanding

Having successfully completed this module, you will be able to demonstrate knowledge and understanding of:

• your chosen subject and related conceptual literature, making appropriate reference to relevant sources of literature;
• how to use concepts/techniques/frameworks from one or more of your taught modules.
• how to scope a study in your subject area, stating clear objectives for your study and ensure that the dissertation addresses these objectives;

Transferable and Generic Skills

• demonstrate the ability to interpret, conceptualise and critically evaluate the literature, and to relate it to practice as appropriate;
• demonstrate your ability to work independently, carry out and evaluate a research project relevant to a business context;
• demonstrate independent judgement and critical self-awareness.

Subject Specific Practical Skills

• demonstrate critical awareness of current problems and/or new insights, at, or informed by, the forefront of your academic discipline or field of study

Details of supervision processes, deadlines and handing-in processes will be clarified in the PG Dissertation Handbook provided as part of the module.

There will be 10 lectures (5 two-hours sessions) that will start from October and finish in July. These session will help you to:

• Identify the type of dissertation you would like to write;
• Write a comprehensive literature review;
• Avoid plagiarism;
• Find the suitable methodology;
• Reference properly other works.

A supervisor will be appointed in April; you are entitled to 6 hours of supervision which you must organise and complete by the 31 July when supervision ends. The dissertation must be handed in mid-September. In brief the supervision process will assist you to:

• Identify a suitable topic for study;
• Design and undertake an appropriate investigation strategy;
• Complete the research ethics application and gain approval;
• Identify and access useful sources of information;
• Plan and manage an appropriate schedule of work;
• Write a well presented dissertation.

Subject to the completion of the University’s Risk and Ethics procedures, students are encouraged to study international topics and may carry out fieldwork in overseas contexts.

Learning and Teaching

Teaching and learning methods.

• Supervision (as detailed in Dissertation Handbook)
• Lectures (5 two-hours sessions).
• Seminars (6 sessions).
• Your Programme Leader/Supervisor may recommend attendance at other seminars or tutorials to aid the development of your topic

This is how we’ll formally assess what you have learned in this module.

This is how we’ll assess you if you don’t meet the criteria to pass this module.

An internal repeat is where you take all of your modules again, including any you passed. An external repeat is where you only re-take the modules you failed.

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