LAST UPDATED July 22
On Sunday, July 21, President Joe Biden announced he would no longer seek the Democratic nomination for president , relenting after weeks of pressure from top Democratic officials and donors to drop out of the race. Shortly after announcing he’d step away from running, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s new nominee.
To win the nomination, Harris will have to secure the majority of delegates at the Democratic National Convention, which begins August 19. But most of those were previously pledged to Biden. Under DNC rules , delegates “shall in all good conscience" reflect the views of those who elected them, so we should expect most of Biden’s supporters to flow to Harris quickly — perhaps announcing their new vote intention before the convention — lest another unforeseen event disrupt the 2024 election further.
If Harris does become the clear presumptive nominee for the Democrats, 538 will launch a new election forecasting and polling-average model for her campaign against Donald Trump. Keep this page bookmarked to stay up to date whenever that comes out.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.
Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.
This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows the different components of the forecast and what they say.
The state of the polls today according to 538’s polling average only. This does not account for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
The polling average adjusted for movement in similar states and the effects of party conventions. This does not account for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
An adjusted version of our polling average that accounts for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on both polls and fundamentals and accounting for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate. Before Election Day, the final forecast in some states can be more Democratic or Republican than the fundamentals and polls because of patterns of overperformance in similar states.
The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.
Biden wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 22 out of 100 |
Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 13 out of 100 |
Biden wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 26 out of 100 |
Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 37 out of 100 |
Biden wins the national popular vote | 62 out of 100 |
Trump wins the national popular vote | 38 out of 100 |
Biden wins a majority of the national popular vote | 29 out of 100 |
Trump wins a majority of the national popular vote | 14 out of 100 |
Biden wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 12 out of 100 |
Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 5 out of 100 |
Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | 13 out of 100 |
Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | <1 out of 100 |
No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes | <1 out of 100 |
Every state votes for the same candidate that it did in 2020 | <1 out of 100 |
Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) | 5 out of 100 |
Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates | 57 out of 100 |
Biden wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 49 out of 100 |
Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 81 out of 100 |
Forecast model
G. Elliott Morris
Katie Marriner
Amina Brown
Aaron Bycoffe
Development
Data and research
Mary Radcliffe
Cooper Burton
Quantitative editing
Holly Fuong
Content editing
Nathaniel Rakich
Copy editing
Alex Kimball
Illustration
Project management
How this works
Methodology
Download our data
Polls and model output
Comments .
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538's 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Joe Biden's and Republican Donald Trump's chances of winning.