Year: | 2022 |
Subject: | Stock price forecasting Stocks -- Prices Corporate profits -- Forecasting Corporations -- Finance Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations |
Department: | School of Accounting and Finance |
Pages: | x, 96 pages : color illustrations |
Language: | English |
Abstract: | This thesis consists of two essays. The commonality of the essays is the valuation effects of missing analyst earnings forecasts as firms age. Missing analyst earnings forecasts may lead to earnings torpedoes. Earnings torpedo, as Skinner and Sloan (2002) note, is the fact that “missing analysts’ forecasts, even by small amounts, causes disproportionately large stock price declines.” This excessively large price drop reflects that the overoptimistic investors are disappointed and revise downward to the prior optimism. If young firms – firms going public recently – generally have overoptimistic investors, in the first essay, I examine whether younger firms face higher earnings torpedo risk. The second essay examines what role the accumulation of missing analyst forecasts plays in the negative relation between M/B and firm age. To sell their shares successfully or at a higher valuation, firms raise investor expectations when going public. The risk from having overoptimistic investors is obvious and well documented in literature on post-IPO long-run performance. Nonetheless, how the inferior long-run returns to IPO firms are realized is not well investigated. This thesis addresses the channel in which investors’ overly optimistic expectations formed at IPO are revised down in the post-IPO market when the realized earnings disappoint investors. Specifically, in the first essay, I examine whether younger firms face higher earnings torpedo risk. My study show that younger firms experience a disproportionately larger price drop to negative earnings surprises. The magnitude of average abnormal returns around negative earnings surprises declines from around 8% to near zero in firm age, and similar trend is not observed around positive earnings surprises. Analysts following younger firms revise analysts revise their earnings forecasts down more when the firms they follow miss analyst forecasts. Younger firms are more likely to release management forecasts to guide expectations down after missing analyst forecasts. Consequently, the likelihood of missing analyst forecasts declines as firms age. The findings support that younger firms face higher earnings torpedo risk and suggest that missing analyst forecasts may be one channel through which the overly optimistic expectations at IPO are revised. In the second essay, I examine whether missing analyst forecasts serves as one channel through which the overly optimistic expectations at IPO are revised. Specifically, I extend on Pastor and Veronesi’s learning model and investigate whether the accumulation of missing analyst forecasts in a firm plays a role in the negative relation between market valuation and firm age. Pastor and Veronesi (2003) model that expected terminal value of equity increases with uncertainty about future profitability due to the convexity of compounding; uncertainty decreases over a firm’s lifetime as information about the firm’s profitability piles up. Proxy for the declining uncertainty, firm age is negatively associated with market valuation. I argue that missing analyst forecasts both reduces uncertainty and leads to downward revisions to prior optimism formed at IPO, hence lowering firm valuation. The adverse effect should be larger due to the higher earnings torpedo risk in younger firms. This implies that, as a proxy for firm valuation, M/B and changes in M/B should be related to the frequency and timing of missing consensus analyst earnings forecast. Constructing two measures for the accumulation of missing analyst earnings forecast, I investigate the role of it in the negative relation between firm age and M/B. The two measures address the effects of both the frequency and timing on firm valuation from missing analyst forecasts. My findings show that the accumulation of missing analyst forecasts is positively associated with firm age and negatively associated with market to book ratio. More importantly, the effect of firm age on market-to-book ratio declines or diminishes after controlling the accumulation of missing analyst forecasts; the effect of firm age on the annual change in M/B declines after considering whether firms miss analyst forecasts in that year. Moreover, the accumulation of missing analyst forecasts is incremental to explain the market-to-book ratio in the cross section. My findings suggest that missing analyst forecasts is one channel through which the decline in M/B over a firm’s lifetime is realized. In sum, my two essays enhance our understanding how the downfall of IPO firms is realized and on the role of missing analyst forecasts in reshaping firms’ valuation as they age. |
Rights: | All rights reserved |
Access: | open access |
File | Description | Size | Format | |
| For All Users | 1.01 MB | Adobe PDF | |
As a bona fide Library user, I declare that:
- I will abide by the rules and legal ordinances governing copyright regarding the use of the Database.
- I will use the Database for the purpose of my research or private study only and not for circulation or further reproduction or any other purpose.
- I agree to indemnify and hold the University harmless from and against any loss, damage, cost, liability or expenses arising from copyright infringement or unauthorized usage.
By downloading any item(s) listed above, you acknowledge that you have read and understood the copyright undertaking as stated above, and agree to be bound by all of its terms.
IMAGES
VIDEO
COMMENTS
You may also want to consult these sites to search for other theses: Google Scholar; NDLTD, the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.NDLTD provides information and a search engine for electronic theses and dissertations (ETDs), whether they are open access or not. Proquest Theses and Dissertations (PQDT), a database of dissertations and theses, whether they were published ...
EBSCO Open Dissertations makes electronic theses and dissertations (ETDs) more accessible to researchers worldwide. The free portal is designed to benefit universities and their students and make ETDs more discoverable. Content Includes: 1,500,000 electronic theses and dissertations. 320 worldwide universities that have loaded their ...
The NC State Graduate School offers 100% electronic processing for graduate theses and dissertations. This means that all ETD reviews, ETD final submissions, Graduate School and Advisory Committee ETD approvals, and NCSU Library catalogs are electronic. The public may access NC State ETDs online on the library's repository website.
An electronic thesis or dissertation (ETD) is a digital version of a thesis or dissertation that will be deposited in the JScholarship repository managed by the Sheridan Libraries and be available online to the public. Universities and colleges in the United States and abroad have been moving toward this type of publication for the past decade.
The Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (NDLTD) is an international organization dedicated to promoting the adoption, creation, use, dissemination, and preservation of electronic theses and dissertations (ETDs). We support electronic publishing and open access to scholarship in order to enhance the sharing of knowledge worldwide.
Global ETD Search. Search the 6,508,553 electronic theses and dissertations contained in the NDLTD archive: advanced search tips how to contribute records.
Electronic dissertations and masters' theses have been deposited in the Libra scholarly repository at the University of Virginia since 2012. Libra makes UVA scholarship available to the world and provides safe and secure storage for the scholarly output of the UVA community. Submitting your work to Libra is a graduation requirement for all ...
On January 1, 1997, Virginia Tech was the first university to require electronic submission of theses and dissertations (ETDs). Ever since then, Virginia Tech graduate students have been able to prepare, submit, review, and publish their theses and dissertations online and to append digital media such as images, data, audio, and video.
Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (NDLTD) Access a large collection of theses and dissertations. The NDLTD is an international organization dedicated to promoting the adoption, creation, use, dissemination and preservation of electronic theses and dissertations. CRL Center for Research Libraries Foreign Doctoral Dissertations.
Electronic Theses & Dissertations. Harvard Medical School & Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health students can now use ProQuest ETD to make their electronic theses and dissertations accessible to the research community: Submitted works will join almost 5 million others freely available through ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global ...
Theses and dissertations may be submitted electronically (via ProQuest), or on paper. Electronic submission best serves the majority of our graduate students and is highly encouraged. If you have questions about formatting or the submission process, read through the FAQs or email [email protected]. If you have questions or concerns that do not ...
The library catalog is the most comprehensive list of UT Austin theses and dissertations. Since 2010, the Office of Graduate Studies at UT Austin has required all theses and dissertations to be made publicly available in Texas ScholarWorks; however, authors are able to request an embargo of up to seven years. Embargoed ETDs will not show up in ...
The Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (NDLTD) is an international organization dedicated to promoting the adoption, creation, use, dissemination, and preservation of electronic theses and dissertations (ETDs). Open Access Theses and Dissertations (OATD) An index of over 3.5 million electronic theses and dissertations (ETDs).
In addition to the electronic theses found in the ASU Digital Repository, ASU Theses and Dissertations can be found in the ASU Library Catalog. Dissertations and Theses granted by Arizona State University are archived and made available through a joint effort of the ASU Graduate College and the ASU Libraries. For more information or questions ...
Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETD) contains over 58,000 theses and dissertations from students at 31 of Ohio's world-renowned academic ... Ohio Library and Information Network (OhioLINK) · A member of the Ohio Technology Consortium. 1224 Kinnear Road, Columbus, OH, 43212, US · 614 ...
An Electronic Thesis or Dissertation (ETD) is a document that reports the research of a graduate student. The Smathers Libraries at the University of Florida preserve and provide access to the dissertations and theses produced in support of graduate degree programs at UF. If you have questions about your thesis or dissertation before you have ...
Theses and Dissertations, Electronic (ETDs) Sheridan Libraries. Welch Medical Library. Arthur Friedheim Library. APL Library. SAIS Europe Library. JScholarship. Communities & Collections. Browse.
EThOS is an open access resource. EThOS, provided by the British Library, is a free online service providing access to UK doctoral theses. It does not cover MPhils or master's dissertations. EThOS aims to provide a central listing of all doctoral theses awarded by UK higher education institutions, with the full text of as many theses as possible.
Print, microfilm, and electronic theses and dissertations (ETD) in our collections can be discovered in the main library catalog. To find digital full-text thesis and dissertations from U of I and around the world, use ProQuest's Dissertations & Theses Global database. All U of I ETD since 2012 are also available in our open access Theses and ...
Penn State Electronic Theses and Dissertations. This is an Open Access resource. Libraries Home. Libraries Intranet (Employees Only) Accessibility Help. Website Feedback. Policies and Guidelines. Acknowledgement of Land. (814) 865-6368.
The ETD (Electronic Theses and Dissertations) collection contains records of theses and dissertations submitted electronically. Graduate students began submitting ETDs during the Spring semester of 2004. Electronic submission was optional until the Fall semester of 2004. If your thesis or dissertation is one of the print-only works completed ...
Graduated and enrolled Stanford students may submit their dissertations and theses through Axess. The electronic submission process is free of charge. The service provides the ability to check your pre-submission requirements, and, when ready, you can upload a digital copy of your dissertation or thesis. Learn how to use the Dissertation and ...
UK Doctoral Thesis Metadata from EThOS. The datasets in this collection comprise snapshots in time of metadata descriptions of hundreds of thousands of PhD theses awarded by UK Higher Education institutions aggregated by the British Library's EThOS service. The data is estimated to cover around 98% of all PhDs ever awarded by UK Higher ...
Introduction: Ultrasonography - a method in which images are created using sound waves - offers cost-effective, portable, and non-invasive imaging without ionizing radiation.
Addis Ababa University Institutional repository. Research & Help. Reference & Research. Starting your Research. Research Design. Interior Design. Research Advice. Avoid Plagiarism. Citing Resources.
Before you submit your thesis or dissertation, you must ensure it meets UC Irvine's formatting requirements. The formatting requirements are in place to ensure a uniform presentation of UC Irvine theses and dissertations in ProQuest's Dissertations & Theses Global database and the UC's institutional repository, eScholarship.You are responsible for submitting a manuscript that is free of errors ...
This thesis addresses the channel in which investors' overly optimistic expectations formed at IPO are revised down in the post-IPO market when the realized earnings disappoint investors. Specifically, in the first essay, I examine whether younger firms face higher earnings torpedo risk. My study show that younger firms experience a ...